Bitcoin Rainbow Chart (AUD)
The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart is one of 9 valuation signals in Tier 1 of the SatoshiMacro Model, a free 48-signal Bitcoin cycle confluence indicator. This chart is the classic Rainbow popularised by Trolololo in 2014 and Blockchain Center thereafter, rebuilt AUD-native and anchored to a statistically rigorous log-log regression instead of hand-drawn bands. Nine sentiment-labelled bands from violet Fire Sale at the bottom through HODL at the centre to deep-red Maximum Bubble Territory at the top, each 0.6 standard deviations wide. Hover any month to see the band classification and sigma deviation from fair value for that month.
Chart
Each dot is a monthly Bitcoin AUD close. The dashed white line through the centre of the rainbow is the long-run log regression (fair value). The 'Now' marker shows the most recent monthly close. Hover any point on the chart for the exact price, band classification, and sigma deviation for that month.
How often does Bitcoin visit each Rainbow band?
Across 166 months of AUD-priced Bitcoin history (from January 2013), Bitcoin has spent the following amount of time in each band:
| Band | Sigma range | % of months | Cycle context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maximum Bubble Territory | +2.4σ to +3.0σ | 2% (3 months) | The 2013 bubble only |
| Sell. Seriously, SELL! | +1.8σ to +2.4σ | 2% (4 months) | Late 2017 and March-April 2021 |
| FOMO Intensifies | +1.2σ to +1.8σ | 8% (13 months) | Heated |
| Is this a bubble? | +0.6σ to +1.2σ | 15% (25 months) | Above fair value |
| HODL (centre) | -0.6σ to +0.6σ | 41% (68 months) | Fair value zone |
| Still cheap | -1.2σ to -0.6σ | 20% (33 months) | Below fair value |
| Accumulate | -1.8σ to -1.2σ | 11% (19 months) | Deep value |
| BUY! | -2.4σ to -1.8σ | 1% (1 months) | Only January 2013, the first month of data |
| Fire Sale | -3.0σ to -2.4σ | 0% (0 months) | Never visited |
HODL contains 41% of monthly closes. The full ±1σ envelope contains 66% and the ±2σ envelope 98%, roughly in line with the normal-distribution assumption behind the sigma band widths. Maximum Bubble Territory has been visited only around the 2013 bubble.
What Rainbow band is Bitcoin in right now?
As of October 2026, Bitcoin is in the Still cheap band (-1.2σ to -0.6σ from the regression line). At -0.75σ, the latest monthly close of A$118,282 sits 36 percent below the regression estimate of A$184,605 for that month.
To move into the next band up ("HODL"), Bitcoin would need to rise about 9 percent from the latest monthly close, before allowing for the regression line itself rising over time. To reach the "Sell. Seriously, SELL!" band it would need to rise about 354 percent, and about 548 percent to reach Maximum Bubble Territory.
When has Bitcoin entered "Maximum Bubble Territory"?
Only in the 2013 bubble: November 2013, December 2013, January 2014. December 2017 peaked at +2.32σ (A$17,809 month-end), in the "Sell. Seriously, SELL!" band, as did March 2021 at +1.97σ. The 2024-2025 cycle peaked at +0.75σ in January 2025, only one band above HODL.
The pattern is a steady step down: each cycle has peaked in a lower band than the one before. That makes the top bands a poor fixed exit rule. A cycle can top out well below "Maximum Bubble Territory", and the last one did.
What is the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart?
The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart is a long-term valuation visualisation that overlays nine sentiment-labelled colour bands on the logarithmic regression of Bitcoin's price against time. Reading from bottom to top:
- Fire Sale (violet): Generational accumulation opportunity. Historically rare.
- BUY! (blue): Deep value zone. Cycle bottoms have visited this band.
- Accumulate (cyan): Below fair value. Standard DCA conditions.
- Still cheap (green): Modestly below fair value. Reasonable entry zone.
- HODL (lime): Near fair value. The long-run trend zone (41 percent of months).
- Is this a bubble? (yellow): Above fair value. Trim positions if uncomfortable.
- FOMO Intensifies (orange): Significantly above fair value. Late-cycle territory.
- Sell. Seriously, SELL! (red): Historically rare. Cycle tops have visited this band.
- Maximum Bubble Territory (deep red): Extreme overheating. Historical cycle-peak zone.
The chart was created by Bitcointalk user Trolololo (also known as Holger) in 2014 and popularised by Blockchain Center thereafter. The original presented the bands as hand-drawn equal-percentage divisions in log-price space; this AUD-native version anchors each band to 0.6 standard deviations of the regression residuals so the band classifications carry literal statistical meaning. Visually the result is essentially identical to the classic rainbow chart.
How to read the bands
The central HODL band (-0.6σ to +0.6σ from the regression line) contains 41 percent of historical monthly closes. Being in HODL means Bitcoin is trading approximately at fair value relative to its long-run trend. This is the chart's neutral zone.
The Still cheap / Accumulate / BUY! / Fire Sale bands below the regression line are progressively deeper value zones. On the AUD fit the cycle bottoms have been shallower than the band names suggest: September 2015 reached Accumulate (-1.72σ), December 2018 only Still cheap (-0.70σ), and December 2022 -1.19σ. The BUY! band has been touched only by the first month of data (January 2013) and the Fire Sale band (-3.0σ to -2.4σ) never.
The Is this a bubble? / FOMO Intensifies / Sell. Seriously SELL! / Maximum Bubble Territory bands above the regression line are progressively more overheated. The 2013, 2017 and early-2021 peaks printed in the Sell or Maximum Bubble Territory bands; November 2021 and the 2024-2025 peak came in lower. The challenge is timing within the band: Bitcoin has spent months at a time in the upper bands during late-bull-market mania phases, and the actual peak day cannot be predicted from band classification alone.
Practical reading:
- Use the headline card at the top of the chart for the current band classification, sentiment text, and the AUD price range for the current band based on today's projection.
- Hover any point on the chart to see the band classification, BTC AUD price, and sigma deviation for that specific month. Useful for historical context (e.g., where was Bitcoin in March 2020?).
- Cross-reference with other cycle indicators rather than acting on band classification alone. Pi Cycle Top, Mayer Multiple, and the Risk Metric all use different methodologies and can confirm or contradict the rainbow chart's read.
Methodology
- Data: Monthly Bitcoin AUD closes from January 2013 (the last daily close of each month): Bitstamp BTC/USD converted at the daily AUD/USD rate, with Kraken's native BTC/AUD market for the last two years. Refreshed automatically every day.
- Regression: Standard ordinary-least-squares linear regression on (log10(days since Bitcoin genesis block), log10(BTC AUD price)). Each monthly close becomes one observation. The fit produces a slope, intercept, and residual standard deviation (sigma).
- Bands: Each of the nine bands is 0.6 sigma wide. The central HODL band spans -0.6σ to +0.6σ. The four bands above HODL extend from +0.6σ to +3.0σ. The four bands below HODL extend from -0.6σ to -3.0σ. Each band's upper and lower edges are computed by adding the appropriate sigma offset to the regression line's log-price prediction at every day in the projection window.
- Projection: The chart extends 18 months past the latest data point so the rainbow envelope and the right-edge band labels don't crowd against the latest data marker.
- Resilience: If a price source is unreachable, the previous data file is kept so the chart continues to render with the last good data.
Rainbow Chart vs Log Regression Bands
The Rainbow Chart and the Logarithmic Regression Bands tool are two presentations of the same underlying math. Choose based on what you're trying to read:
| Feature | Rainbow Chart | Log Regression Bands |
|---|---|---|
| Underlying math | Log-log OLS regression | Log-log OLS regression |
| Band count | 9 bands | 4 bands (±1σ, ±2σ) |
| Band width | 0.6σ each | 1σ each |
| Band labels | Sentiment (Fire Sale to Maximum Bubble Territory) | Clinical (+1σ overheated, -2σ undervalued, etc.) |
| Colour palette | Rainbow (violet to deep red) | Green / gold / red gradient |
| Best for | At-a-glance cycle positioning, sharing | Sigma-deviation analysis, fair-value math |
| Audience | Long-term holders, casual readers | Analysts, traders, modelling |
Both tools read the same monthly BTC AUD data set, refreshed daily. Use them together: the Rainbow Chart for at-a-glance cycle classification, the Log Regression Bands for the precise sigma-deviation number to feed into other analysis.
Where the model breaks down
- Assumes log-log linearity holds forever. Bitcoin's first 15 years have fit a log-log line remarkably well, but a finite asset cannot sustain log-linear growth indefinitely. The model will eventually break down as Bitcoin matures into a lower-growth phase.
- Sigma assumes normality of residuals. Bitcoin's regression residuals are roughly bell-shaped but with fatter tails than a true normal distribution. The 99.7-percent claim for the full ±3σ envelope is approximate; in practice Bitcoin has occasionally printed just outside the envelope at cycle extremes.
- Lagging. The regression is fitted to past data, so the bands shift slightly with each new monthly close. Bands drawn today are not exactly where bands drawn 12 months ago sat.
- Sentiment labels are heuristics, not signals. "Sell. Seriously, SELL!" doesn't mean sell; it means "this is a historically rare zone that has hosted cycle tops". Treat the labels as classifications, not recommendations.
- USD vs AUD differs. Most published rainbow charts are USD-priced. The AUD-native version has a slightly different slope due to AUD's long-term depreciation against USD. Bitcoin's band classification at any point in time may differ slightly between AUD and USD versions of the chart.
- Single-asset reasoning. The rainbow chart says nothing about altcoin rotation, dominance, or relative-value trades. Pair with the Bitcoin Dominance + Altcoin Season Index for rotation context.
Related tools
- Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD) - same math, clinical ±1σ / ±2σ presentation for analytical work.
- Bitcoin Risk Metric (AUD) - 0-1 cycle positioning score derived from log-regression deviation.
- Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Indicator (AUD) - independent top-zone signal using 111DMA and 350DMA × 2 crossover.
- Bitcoin Mayer Multiple (AUD) - price ÷ 200DMA with historical cycle bands.
- Bitcoin 200-Week MA Heatmap (AUD) - 200WMA colour-graded by 4-week ROC.
- Bitcoin Market-Value Z-Score (AUD) - MVRV Z-Score proxy with cycle bands.
- Bitcoin Dominance + Altcoin Season Index - BTC vs alts rotation context.
- Crypto CGT Calculator - apply the ATO 50 percent discount to any sale triggered by rainbow band classification.
- Crypto Exit Strategy Ladder - rules-based exit plan anchored to specific band-edge prices.
Frequently asked questions
The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart is a long-term Bitcoin valuation visualisation that overlays nine sentiment-labelled colour bands on the logarithmic regression of Bitcoin's price against time. The bands run from violet 'Fire Sale' at the bottom to deep-red 'Maximum Bubble Territory' at the top, with 'HODL' in the centre at the regression line. The chart was created by Bitcointalk user Trolololo in 2014 and popularised by Blockchain Center. The original presented the bands as hand-drawn equal-percentage divisions; this AUD-native version anchors each band to 0.6 standard deviations of the regression residuals, which gives the sentiment labels statistical meaning rather than purely visual appeal.
Same underlying math, different presentation. Both fit a log-log linear regression to Bitcoin's price-vs-time history. The standard Logarithmic Regression Bands tool shows the fitted line plus plus-or-minus one and two standard deviation bands as clinical statistical reference. The Rainbow Chart slices the same envelope into nine narrower 0.6-sigma bands and replaces the clinical labels with sentiment terms (Fire Sale, BUY, Accumulate, Still cheap, HODL, Is this a bubble, FOMO Intensifies, Sell Seriously SELL, Maximum Bubble Territory). The Rainbow Chart is more emotionally legible for cycle positioning; the regression bands chart is cleaner for sigma-deviation analysis. Both tools pull from the same monthly BTC AUD data set.
The original Blockchain Center rainbow chart uses equal-percentage divisions in log-price space, which produces visually consistent band widths but no statistical interpretation for the band edges. Anchoring each band to 0.6 standard deviations of the regression residuals (so the full nine-band envelope spans -3.0 sigma to +3.0 sigma) lets you read the band classification as a literal probability statement under the normality assumption: roughly 99.7 percent of historical observations fall inside the envelope, in the AUD data the central HODL band (-0.6 to +0.6 sigma) has held 41 percent of monthly closes, and the Maximum Bubble Territory band has been visited only around the 2013 peak. The visual appearance is essentially identical to the classic rainbow chart but the bands now mean something rigorous.
The upper bands have hosted the early cycle peaks, but less so each cycle. On the AUD fit the 2013 bubble reached Maximum Bubble Territory (November 2013, December 2013, January 2014). The December 2017 top (+2.32σ) and the March-April 2021 top (+1.97σ, +1.84σ) printed in the 'Sell. Seriously, SELL!' band. November 2021 (+1.54σ) was in FOMO Intensifies, and the 2024-2025 cycle peaked at only +0.75σ (January 2025), in 'Is this a bubble?'. The actual peak day cannot be predicted from band classification alone. The chart identifies historically rare zones, not specific dates.
The HODL band (-0.6σ to +0.6σ from the regression line) is the long-run trend zone. 41 percent of monthly Bitcoin closes since January 2013 have landed in this band. Being in HODL is neither bullish nor bearish; it means Bitcoin is trading approximately at fair value relative to its long-run log-log regression. Cycle bulls and bears typically pass through this band on their way to the FOMO or Accumulate zones.
Bitcoin is quoted in USD on global exchanges, but Australian-resident investors measure portfolio value in AUD. The AUD-USD exchange rate moves independently of Bitcoin, which means the AUD-priced regression line has a slightly different slope than the USD version due to AUD's long-term depreciation against USD. The AUD-native chart is the correct reference for an Australian-resident investor. Most published rainbow charts (Blockchain Center, Bitbo, Lookintobitcoin) are USD-only.
The underlying BTC AUD monthly data is the last daily close of each month from January 2013: Bitstamp BTC/USD converted at the daily AUD/USD rate, with Kraken's native BTC/AUD market for the last two years. It refreshes automatically every day. The regression refits and the bands redraw on every page load using the latest data. If a price source is unreachable, the previous data file is kept so the chart continues to render with the last good data.
Not as a standalone rule. Maximum Bubble Territory has historically marked cycle peaks, but Bitcoin has also spent multiple months in this band during late-bull-market mania phases. Using the band as a confirmation signal alongside other cycle indicators (Pi Cycle Top, Mayer Multiple, Risk Metric, dominance trend) and your own conviction is more useful than treating it as a trigger. For any sale that triggers a CGT event in Australia, use the Crypto CGT Calculator to estimate the after-tax proceeds, and consider the Crypto Exit Strategy Ladder for a rules-based exit plan rather than discretionary timing.
On the AUD fit, three of the five cycle highs since 2013 registered in the upper two bands: the 2013 bubble (Maximum Bubble Territory), December 2017 and March-April 2021 (both Sell. Seriously, SELL!). November 2021 printed in FOMO Intensifies and the 2024-2025 peak in 'Is this a bubble?'. Cycle bottoms were shallower than the classic chart suggests: September 2015 reached -1.72σ (Accumulate), December 2018 only -0.70σ (Still cheap) and December 2022 -1.19σ. The Fire Sale band has never been visited. The framework is reliable for cycle-zone classification; the precise peak day inside a band is harder because Bitcoin can stay in Maximum Bubble Territory for several months during late-bull-market mania phases. The Rainbow Chart and the Logarithmic Regression Bands use identical underlying math; the Rainbow re-skins the +/-σ envelopes into nine narrower 0.6σ bands with sentiment labels for visual legibility.
No. On the AUD fit the 2013 bubble reached Maximum Bubble Territory, and the December 2017 and April 2021 tops reached Sell. Seriously, SELL! (+2.32σ and +1.84σ). The November 2021 top registered in FOMO Intensifies (+1.54σ) and the 2024-2025 peak only in 'Is this a bubble?' (+0.75σ). Each cycle has peaked in a lower band than the last. The Rainbow Chart identifies historically rare zones; it does not predict exact peak dates. The SatoshiMacro Model combines Rainbow Position with 47 other signals so the picture sharpens at the inflection.
Rainbow Chart position sits in Tier 1 (Valuation & Cycle Position) of the SatoshiMacro Model at 25 per cent of total composite weight, alongside 8 other valuation signals (MVRV Z-Score, Pi Cycle Top, Mayer Multiple, 2-Year MA Multiplier, 200-Week MA distance, Power Law deviation, Golden Ratio Multiplier, Bitcoin Risk Metric). Because Rainbow Position is derived from the same underlying log regression as the Power Law deviation and the Risk Metric, the three signals are partially correlated by construction; SMM's tier-averaging absorbs that correlation without double-counting. The current Rainbow Position is normalised to its expanding-window historical percentile rank, then contributes to the tier-averaged score that drives 25 per cent of the final 0-100 SMM composite.
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