Crypto exit strategy ladder (AUD + ATO CGT)
Build a step-by-step exit plan for any crypto position. Set your holding size, cost base, and a ladder of price targets with sell percentages. Outputs AUD proceeds, capital gain, CGT payable (ATO 50 percent discount applied where eligible), and net-after-tax AUD for each rung. Plus running totals and remaining holdings. Designed for long-term BTC, ETH, or any single-asset crypto position where you want to ladder out of a cycle rather than time the exact top. AUD-native; ATO 2025-26 framework.
Build your ladder
Price targets and sell percentages
Per-rung breakdown
Why ladder out instead of timing the top
Three documented Bitcoin cycle tops (December 2017, April 2021, November 2021) and one in progress (the 2024-2025 cycle). The pattern in each: the actual top was identifiable only in hindsight. Most investors who tried to "sell the top" sold weeks or months early or weeks or months late. The ladder approach treats top-timing as an unsolved problem and works around it.
Three reasons a ladder out-performs a single sell decision for most investors:
- Removes the emotional decision. Once the ladder is set, you do not have to choose whether "now is the top" while watching price action live. The next rung is the next rung. The decision is mechanical.
- Captures multiple price levels. If the cycle top is somewhere in the rung range, you sell roughly the right amount through it. If the top is above the highest rung, you still capture the lower-rung sales. If the top is below the lowest rung, you preserve your full position.
- Spreads CGT across the financial year. If you plan rungs around June 30 boundaries, you can split disposals across financial years to manage marginal-rate progression and avoid bracket creep on the gain (this is more relevant for very large positions).
The trade-off: a ladder will under-perform a perfect single-top sale (which no-one achieves) and will outperform a no-sale or a poorly-timed full sale (which most people do achieve). On the distribution of possible outcomes, the ladder is the variance-reduction strategy. It is not the maximum-expected-value strategy.
CGT treatment per rung
Each rung is a separate CGT event under Australian tax law. The disposal is the sale of crypto for AUD. The capital gain equals proceeds minus cost base. The 50 percent discount under section 115-25 of the ITAA 1997 applies to the gain on any parcel held more than 12 months. Each parcel is taxed in the financial year of its disposal.
The calculator simplifies the cost-base accounting by using a single weighted-average cost base across the entire position. In reality, the ATO permits three parcel-identification methods:
- FIFO (first in, first out). Default convention. The oldest parcels are disposed first. Typically optimal because the oldest parcels have the highest gains AND the longest holding period (qualifying for the 50 percent discount).
- LIFO (last in, first out). The newest parcels are disposed first. Reduces near-term gain but may forfeit the 50 percent discount on parcels under 12 months.
- Specific identification. Pick specific parcels to dispose. Requires records that distinguish parcels. Most tax-optimal but most administratively burdensome.
For a single-parcel or weighted-average approximation, this calculator is sufficient for planning. For a real disposal of a multi-parcel position, use the Crypto CGT Calculator for parcel-by-parcel calculations or full crypto tax software (Summ, Syla, Koinly) for an end-to-end ATO report.
Common ladder strategies
Four ladder structures used by long-term Bitcoin investors. The numbers are illustrative; replace them with your own price targets:
Conservative ladder (heavy early profit-taking)
| Rung | Price (AUD) | Sell % | Cumulative % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $150,000 | 15% | 15% |
| 2 | $200,000 | 20% | 35% |
| 3 | $250,000 | 20% | 55% |
| 4 | $300,000 | 15% | 70% |
| 5 | $400,000+ | 0% | 70% |
Balanced ladder (75 percent sold across 5 rungs)
| Rung | Price (AUD) | Sell % | Cumulative % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $150,000 | 10% | 10% |
| 2 | $200,000 | 15% | 25% |
| 3 | $250,000 | 20% | 45% |
| 4 | $300,000 | 15% | 60% |
| 5 | $400,000 | 15% | 75% |
Aggressive ladder (90 percent sold, top-zone heavy)
| Rung | Price (AUD) | Sell % | Cumulative % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $200,000 | 10% | 10% |
| 2 | $300,000 | 15% | 25% |
| 3 | $400,000 | 25% | 50% |
| 4 | $500,000 | 25% | 75% |
| 5 | $600,000+ | 15% | 90% |
Cycle-anchored ladder (tied to log regression sigma bands)
Instead of fixed dollar targets, anchor the ladder to deviations from the long-run log regression line (using the BTC log regression chart):
- +1σ: Sell 15% (above fair value, but historically common)
- +1.5σ: Sell 25% (entering historically rare zone)
- +2σ: Sell 35% (cycle-top zone, preceded all three prior tops)
- +2.5σ: Sell 25% (extreme overheated, 2017-style bubble territory)
The cycle-anchored approach automatically adjusts the ladder to absolute price levels as the regression line evolves over time. The dollar values are derived; you only need to maintain the sigma thresholds.
Limitations
- Weighted-average cost base. The calculator uses one composite cost base. Real ATO reporting requires parcel-by-parcel accounting (FIFO, LIFO, or specific identification). Differences matter for multi-year DCA positions with parcels under 12 months at the disposal date.
- No fees, no slippage, no spread. Exchange fees, withdrawal fees, and spread costs are not modelled. For typical Australian exchange spot fees (CoinSpot 1.0 percent, IR 0.5 percent, Binance Australia 0.1 percent), deduct that fraction of each rung's proceeds.
- Marginal rate held constant. A real disposal of a very large gain can push you into a higher marginal bracket. The calculator uses one marginal rate across all rungs. For positions where the total gain exceeds $20,000+ in a year, model with the next-bracket-up rate or consult a tax agent.
- FY boundaries not modelled. A real exit ladder can be optimised by timing rungs across June 30 to split disposals across financial years. The calculator does not factor FY timing.
- No re-entry modelling. The 'remaining holdings' line shows what is left, but the calculator does not model future buy-backs or the new cost base of re-entry parcels.
- Not financial advice. The price targets and sell percentages are decision inputs; the calculator is the execution layer. For real disposals of significant size, consult a registered tax agent.
Related tools
- Crypto CGT Calculator - parcel-by-parcel calculation for a single disposal. Use for the actual ATO-compliant computation when executing a rung.
- SMSF Crypto CGT Calculator - 15 percent accumulation, 0 percent pension, one-third discount.
- Bitcoin Log Regression Bands (AUD) - the framework underlying the cycle-anchored ladder structure.
- Bitcoin Halving Countdown + Cycle Overlay - cycle timing context for setting rung price targets.
- Bitcoin DCA Backtest Calculator - the entry-side companion (DCA in) to this exit-side tool (ladder out).
- Tax-Loss Harvesting Calculator - if rungs trigger in a year with losses elsewhere, offset and reduce CGT.
Frequently asked questions
An exit strategy ladder is a pre-defined plan that sells a fixed percentage of a position at each of several price targets, rather than trying to sell the entire position at a single 'top' price. For example: sell 10 percent at $150k, 15 percent at $200k, 20 percent at $250k, 25 percent at $300k, 30 percent at $400k. The ladder approach removes the emotional decision of timing the cycle top, locks in profits incrementally, and preserves some upside exposure if the cycle continues higher than the top of the ladder.
Because no one reliably identifies the exact cycle top in real time. Bitcoin's three documented cycle tops (December 2017, April 2021, November 2021) all saw most investors miss the peak by weeks or months. A pre-defined ladder solves this problem mechanically: you commit to the sell schedule before the emotion of the top arrives. The trade-off is that you do not maximise upside if the cycle pushes through your top rung; you accept giving up the very top percentile of the move in exchange for not missing the move entirely.
Each rung's CGT is computed in four steps. First, gross gain equals (proceeds at the rung price minus cost base proportion sold). Second, the 50 percent CGT discount under section 115-25 of the ITAA 1997 is applied if the long-term holding checkbox is enabled (which is the case for any position held more than 12 months before the disposal). Third, taxable gain equals gross gain minus the discount. Fourth, CGT equals taxable gain times your marginal tax rate divided by 100. Net AUD at the rung equals gross proceeds minus CGT.
No. The calculator uses a single weighted-average cost base across the entire position. In reality, the ATO permits FIFO, LIFO, or specific-identification parcel-by-parcel CGT accounting, and these methods can produce different total CGT outcomes for a multi-parcel position (especially if some parcels are within 12 months of the disposal and thus do not qualify for the 50 percent discount). For a parcel-by-parcel calculation, use the Crypto CGT Calculator or full crypto tax software (Summ, Syla, Koinly).
There is no hard cap. The calculator handles any number of rungs. In practice, ladders with 4 to 7 rungs are the most common because they capture the cycle-pricing structure (early profit-taking, mid-cycle profit-taking, top-zone profit-taking) without becoming so granular that individual rungs do not move the needle. A 20-rung ladder is overengineering.
Not necessarily. Many long-term holders deliberately leave a permanent 'never sell' core (typically 10 to 30 percent of the position) that is never laddered out. The rationale: even if the model is wrong about the cycle structure, you retain meaningful exposure to upside scenarios that no model could predict. The 'remaining holdings' line at the bottom of the calculator shows what you have left after the full ladder executes.
No. The preset rungs are illustrative reference points for typical AUD price levels in the historical Bitcoin cycle range. They are not forecasts. Replace them with your own price targets based on your fair-value assessment (e.g., the log regression bands) or with cycle-derived projections from your own framework. The calculator is the execution layer; the targets are your decision.
Tactical reload (buying back after the cycle bottom) is a separate strategy that pairs well with a ladder exit. Many traders ladder out during the cycle top zone and then ladder back in during the cycle bottom zone (the inverse ladder). The two together form a 'cycle rotation' strategy. The calculator does not model the rebuy half because there is no historical CGT advantage to gaming the round trip (each disposal is fully taxable; the cost base resets at each rebuy). Plan the exit; the rebuy is a separate decision.
About the author
