US Macro Charts for Australian Traders
Sixteen interactive charts of the US macro variables that move every AUD-denominated risk asset, plus a Sydney-time US release calendar. Fed Funds, CPI (level and YoY), Core PCE, M2 money supply (level, YoY and inflation-adjusted), 10Y and 2Y Treasury yields, the 2Y/10Y yield curve recession indicator, 30Y mortgage rates, VIX, Fed balance sheet, the reverse repo facility, broad trade-weighted USD index, and US unemployment. All from the St. Louis Fed's FRED service, refreshed twice a day, with the last good data kept if FRED is unreachable. AUD-trader framing throughout: how each variable transmits to AUD/USD, ASX 200, Bitcoin AUD, and AU government bonds.
US rates + release calendar (6 tools)
Fed Funds Rate
DFF · Daily · 1954+
The Federal Reserve's operational policy rate. The macro variable that drives AUD/USD, USD funding costs, and the discount rate against which every long-duration asset prices. Includes the fastest hiking cycle since the early 1980s (Mar 2022 - Jul 2023), the 2024-25 cuts and the September 2026 hike.
US Economic Calendar (Sydney time)
Fed · BLS · BEA · Updated daily
Upcoming FOMC decisions, CPI, jobs, PCE, GDP and PPI releases with every time converted to Sydney. Straight from the official agency schedules, re-checked twice a day.
10Y Treasury Yield
DGS10 · Daily · 1962+
The world's reference long-end interest rate. Drives mortgage pricing, corporate credit, equity discount rates, and AUD/USD via the 10Y differential. Includes the 15.84% record close (Sep 1981), the 0.52% all-time closing low (Aug 2020) and the 4.98% Oct 2023 cycle high. Latest: 5.27% (6 October 2026).
2Y Treasury Yield
DGS2 · Daily · 1976+
The cleanest market gauge of Fed policy expectations over the next 24 months. Usually moves ahead of Fed Funds decisions and gives the leading edge of most macro pivots. The 'pivot signal' bond traders watch.
2Y/10Y Yield Curve
T10Y2Y · Daily · Recession indicator
The most-watched recession indicator in markets. Inverted continuously for just over 25 months in 2022-2024, the longest run in the series. Every US recession since the series began in 1976 was preceded by an inversion.
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US · Weekly · Freddie Mac PMMS
The single most important price in the US economy and the cleanest housing-transmission channel from Fed policy. Includes the 2.65% Jan 2021 all-time low and 7.79% Oct 2023 cycle peak.
Inflation (3 charts)
CPI Inflation YoY
CPIAUCSL YoY · Monthly · The headline rate
The headline US inflation rate. The most market-moving macro data release in the world. Includes the June 2022 peak (9.0% seasonally adjusted, 9.1% unadjusted, a 40-year high) and the 2 percent Fed target reference line.
Core PCE Inflation YoY
PCEPILFE YoY · Monthly · Fed's preferred gauge
The Fed's main gauge of underlying inflation (the 2% goal itself is set on headline PCE). Typically 0.3-0.5pp below Core CPI. 5.6% peak Sep 2022 on current data. The number FOMC voters actually look at.
CPI Level
CPIAUCSL · Monthly · Cumulative inflation
The cumulative-inflation view. Useful for projecting real-AUD purchasing power on US-listed assets. About 97% cumulative inflation since January 2000; 29% since January 2020 alone (August 2026).
Liquidity (5 charts)
M2 Money Supply
M2SL · Monthly · Log scale
The cleanest single proxy for global USD liquidity. Bitcoin tracks M2 expansion and contraction phases closely. About 41% expansion from February 2020 to the March 2022 peak, then the first year-on-year decline since the series began in 1959.
M2 YoY %
M2SL YoY · Monthly · Regime indicator
The growth-rate view of M2. The inflection-point indicator: above 7% YoY = max risk-on regime; below 3% or contracting = tightening regime. 26.8% record peak Feb 2021, minus 4.6% trough April 2023.
Real M2 (Inflation-Adjusted)
M2SL / CPI · Monthly · Real liquidity
US M2 deflated by CPI. Shows the purchasing-power view of the money stock: real M2 fell about 12.6% from its January 2022 peak to its April 2024 trough, far deeper than the nominal dip (minus 4.6% YoY at worst).
Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL)
WALCL · Weekly · QE/QT quantity
The Federal Reserve's total assets. Went from $0.9T pre-GFC to an $8.97T all-time high in April 2022; QT ended in December 2025. The quantity-side of Fed policy. QE eras visible as ramps; QT eras as drains.
Reverse Repo Facility
RRPONTSYD · Daily · Liquidity buffer
The Fed's overnight reverse-repo facility. Peaked at $2.55T on 30 December 2022; drained close to zero by late 2025. The drain effectively offset much of the Fed's QT impact on bank reserves.
USD & volatility (2 charts)
USD Trade-Weighted Index
DTWEXBGS · Daily · 26-currency basket
The Fed's preferred broad USD measure. Strongly inverse to AUD/USD over multi-year windows. The January 2025 reading of 130.04 is the series high (data from 2006).
CBOE VIX
VIXCLS · Daily · Implied vol
The world's most-watched market-fear gauge. 82.69 record close (COVID, Mar 2020); 80.86 GFC closing high (89.53 intraday); 9.14 record low close (Nov 2017). VIX spikes are usually positive-EV buy signals on a 6-12 month horizon.
Labour (1 chart)
US Unemployment Rate
UNRATE · Monthly · Fed dual mandate
The labour-market half of the Fed's dual mandate. Covers the 14.8% April 2020 COVID spike (highest since the series began in 1948) and the 3.4% April 2023 low (lowest since 1969). Sahm Rule recession-indicator framing.
AU-trader framework: how to use these charts
A workable institutional pattern for Australian-resident traders:
- Daily check (1 minute): Glance at the 2Y Treasury yield and the broad USD index. Both move fast on news. Direction shifts here are the leading edge of every AUD/USD move and the most important short-horizon macro signals.
- Weekly check (5 minutes): Add the 10Y yield, the 2Y/10Y curve, and the VIX. Watch for inflection points: 10Y peaks, curve normalisation episodes, and VIX spikes are all setups for positioning changes on horizons of weeks to months.
- Monthly check (10 minutes): Add CPI YoY (released mid-month), Core PCE (released late in the month), unemployment (usually the first Friday), and M2 YoY. These are the regime-defining variables; check them after release to confirm or change your medium-term thesis.
- Quarterly check (20 minutes): Step back and review the Fed balance sheet, M2 level, USD index, and mortgage rate together. These slow-moving variables tell you whether the macro liquidity environment is still in the same regime as the last quarter, or whether something has shifted. Adjust portfolio tilt accordingly.
The charts here replace the multi-thousand-dollar-per-year Bloomberg terminal subscription for the headline macro variables. The underlying numbers are the same official releases a terminal shows, the charts refresh twice a day, and they are free. What Bloomberg adds is custom-overlay flexibility and the dealer-network chat; for the FRED-equivalent series the chart quality is the same.
Looking for the BTC AUD cycle indicators?
The /guides/crypto/ section has 30+ Bitcoin AUD analytics tools (log regression, Mayer Multiple, MVRV proxy, hashrate, miner revenue, Hash Ribbons) that work alongside the US macro charts on this page.
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