US Macro Charts for Australian Traders
Fifteen interactive charts of the US macro variables that move every AUD-denominated risk asset. Fed Funds, CPI, Core PCE, M2 money supply, 10Y and 2Y Treasury yields, the 2Y/10Y yield curve recession indicator, 30Y mortgage rates, VIX, Fed balance sheet, the reverse repo facility, broad trade-weighted USD index, and US unemployment. All pulled live from the St. Louis Fed FRED endpoint with last-known-good fallback. AUD-trader framing throughout: how each variable transmits to AUD/USD, ASX 200, Bitcoin AUD, and AU government bonds.
US rates (5 charts)
Fed Funds Rate
DFF · Daily · 2000+
The Federal Reserve's operational policy rate. The macro variable that drives AUD/USD, USD funding costs, and the discount rate against which every long-duration asset prices. Includes the fastest hiking cycle in history (Mar 2022 - Jul 2023) and the current cutting cycle.
10Y Treasury Yield
DGS10 · Daily · 2000+
The world's reference long-end interest rate. Drives mortgage pricing, corporate credit, equity discount rates, and AUD/USD via the 10Y differential. Includes the 0.51% Aug 2020 all-time low and the 5.02% Oct 2023 peak.
2Y Treasury Yield
DGS2 · Daily · 2000+
The cleanest market gauge of Fed policy expectations over the next 24 months. Moves ahead of Fed Funds decisions and provides the leading edge of every macro pivot. The 'pivot signal' bond traders watch.
2Y/10Y Yield Curve
T10Y2Y · Daily · Recession indicator
The most-watched recession indicator in markets. Inverted continuously for 26+ months 2022-2024 (longest in recorded history). Every US recession since 1955 preceded by inversion.
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US · Weekly · Freddie Mac PMMS
The single most important price in the US economy and the cleanest housing-transmission channel from Fed policy. Includes the 2.65% Jan 2021 all-time low and 7.79% Oct 2023 cycle peak.
Inflation (3 charts)
CPI Inflation YoY
CPIAUCSL YoY · Monthly · The headline rate
The headline US inflation rate. The most market-moving macro data release in the world. Includes the 9.1% June 2022 peak (40-year high) and the 2 percent Fed target reference line.
Core PCE Inflation YoY
PCEPILFE YoY · Monthly · Fed's preferred gauge
The Federal Reserve's explicit inflation target series. Typically 0.3-0.5pp below Core CPI. 5.4% peak Feb 2022. The number FOMC voters actually look at.
CPI Level
CPIAUCSL · Monthly · Cumulative inflation
The cumulative-inflation view. Useful for projecting real-AUD purchasing power on US-listed assets. 93% cumulative inflation since 2000; 27% since 2020 alone.
Liquidity (4 charts)
M2 Money Supply
M2SL · Monthly · Log scale
The cleanest single proxy for global USD liquidity. Bitcoin tracks M2 expansion / contraction phases more reliably than any other single macro variable. 41% expansion in 24 months during COVID, then the first nominal contraction since 1949.
M2 YoY %
M2SL YoY · Monthly · Regime indicator
The growth-rate view of M2. The inflection-point indicator: above 7% YoY = max risk-on regime; below 3% or contracting = tightening regime. 26.9% all-time-high peak Feb 2021, minus 4.4% trough April 2023.
Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL)
WALCL · Weekly · QE/QT quantity
The Federal Reserve's total assets. Went from $900B pre-GFC to $9.0T all-time-high April 2022. The quantity-side of Fed policy. QE eras visible as ramps; QT eras as drains.
Reverse Repo Facility
RRPONTSYD · Daily · Liquidity buffer
The Fed's overnight reverse-repo facility. Peaked at $2.55T December 2022; drained to under $100B by 2026. The drain effectively offset much of the Fed's QT impact on bank reserves.
USD & volatility (2 charts)
USD Trade-Weighted Index
DTWEXBGS · Daily · 26-currency basket
The Fed's preferred broad USD measure. AUD/USD inverse correlation roughly minus 0.85 over multi-year windows. Jan 2025 peak at 130.85 was the highest since 1985.
CBOE VIX
VIXCLS · Daily · Implied vol
The world's most-watched market-fear gauge. 89.5 GFC peak; 82.7 COVID peak; 9.14 all-time low Nov 2017. VIX spikes are usually positive-EV buy signals on a 6-12 month horizon.
Labour (1 chart)
US Unemployment Rate
UNRATE · Monthly · Fed dual mandate
The labour-market half of the Fed's dual mandate. Covers the 14.7% April 2020 COVID spike (highest since Great Depression) and the 3.4% April 2023 multi-decade low. Sahm Rule recession-indicator framing.
AU-trader framework: how to use these charts
A workable institutional pattern for Australian-resident traders:
- Daily check (1 minute): Glance at the 2Y Treasury yield and the broad USD index. Both move fast on news. Direction shifts here are the leading edge of every AUD/USD move and the most important short-horizon macro signals.
- Weekly check (5 minutes): Add the 10Y yield, the 2Y/10Y curve, and the VIX. Watch for inflection points: 10Y peaks, curve normalisation episodes, and VIX spikes are all setups for positioning changes on horizons of weeks to months.
- Monthly check (10 minutes): Add CPI YoY (released 13th of month), Core PCE (released end of month), unemployment (first Friday), and M2 YoY. These are the regime-defining variables; check them after release to confirm or change your medium-term thesis.
- Quarterly check (20 minutes): Step back and review the Fed balance sheet, M2 level, USD index, and mortgage rate together. These slow-moving variables tell you whether the macro liquidity environment is still in the same regime as the last quarter, or whether something has shifted. Adjust portfolio tilt accordingly.
The charts here replace the multi-thousand-dollar-per-year Bloomberg terminal subscription for the headline macro variables. Data is identical (FRED is sourced by Bloomberg too), refreshes daily, and is free. What Bloomberg adds is custom-overlay flexibility and the dealer-network chat; for the FRED-equivalent series the chart quality is the same.
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