US 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (MORTGAGE30US)
Weekly US 30-year fixed mortgage rate (Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, FRED series MORTGAGE30US) from 2000 onwards. The single most important price in the US economy and the cleanest transmission channel from Fed policy to household balance sheets. Includes the January 2021 all-time low (2.65 percent) and the October 2023 cycle high (7.79 percent). AUD-trader framing on US housing-cycle read-through to risk-asset sentiment.
Chart
Weekly US 30-year fixed conforming mortgage rate from Freddie Mac PMMS. Recession-shaded.
What is MORTGAGE30US?
The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) averages contract interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate conforming mortgages originated each week across a large sample of US lenders. The published rate is the median average rate plus average points paid. Freddie Mac publishes Thursdays at noon ET.
The 30-year fixed mortgage is the dominant housing finance instrument in the US. It locks the borrower's rate for the entire 30-year amortisation, with no rate-reset risk. Prepayment is borrower's option (mostly without penalty), which gives the mortgage market a convexity profile that influences MBS pricing and broader rates volatility.
Why AU traders watch the US mortgage rate
- Housing cycle as recession lead indicator. US residential construction employment historically peaks 12-18 months before recession start. When mortgage rates spike, building permits fall, then employment falls. The US mortgage rate is one of the cleanest leading indicators of US recession.
- Wealth-effect channel. US homeowners feel poorer when mortgage rates rise and home equity is locked up. Consumer spending slows. This drags US GDP growth, which drags global growth, which drags commodities and AUD.
- Mortgage-rate vs RBA cash rate divergence. The AU mortgage market is dominated by variable-rate and short-fixed (2-5 year) loans, very different from the US 30-year fixed model. AU borrowers are exposed to RBA policy in real time; US borrowers are exposed to it on refinance. This structural difference means US housing transmits Fed policy more slowly but the eventual transmission is more severe.
Methodology
- Source. FRED series MORTGAGE30US, weekly, sourced from Freddie Mac PMMS.
- Endpoint. Public fredgraph.csv.
- Recession shading. NBER-dated US recessions.
- Static-first. Snapshot preserved if FRED unreachable.
Related tools
- 10Y Treasury Yield - the input that anchors mortgage pricing.
- Fed Funds Rate - the upstream policy lever.
- US Unemployment Rate - the labour-market downstream of housing-cycle stress.
- CPI Inflation - the shelter-cost driver in inflation prints.
Frequently asked questions
MORTGAGE30US is the average contract interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate conforming mortgages originated in the United States, surveyed weekly by Freddie Mac across major lenders (the Primary Mortgage Market Survey, PMMS). It is the headline US mortgage rate and the most-watched single number in housing markets. The rate prices off the US 10-year Treasury yield plus a mortgage spread (typically 150 to 250 basis points).
Because it's the most direct transmission of Fed policy to household balance sheets. Higher mortgage rates slow housing transactions, compress home equity withdrawal, slow consumer spending, and tip the economy toward recession. The 2022 rate spike (3 percent to 7.79 percent in 14 months) was the fastest mortgage rate move in 40 years and froze housing transactions. Existing-home sales fell to multi-decade lows. The wealth-effect channel and the construction-employment channel both feed back into the broader risk-asset cycle.
Indirectly through global risk-asset positioning. A US mortgage-rate spike that breaks the US housing market would trigger US recession, USD strength on safe-haven flows, AUD/USD weakness, and ASX selloff. The 2022 US mortgage spike was a key macro variable behind that year's risk-off across global markets. The current normalisation back toward 6 percent suggests housing-cycle stress is easing, which is supportive for global risk.
The 2.65 percent low in January 2021 was driven by (a) Fed Funds at zero, (b) 10Y Treasury at near-record low (~1 percent), (c) the Fed buying $40 billion/month of agency MBS via QE, compressing the mortgage spread to historic lows. The combination delivered the cheapest mortgages in US history. Subsequent rate normalisation tripled mortgage rates within 24 months and exposed the affordability cliff facing recent buyers.
The mortgage spread is the 30-year mortgage rate minus the 10-year Treasury yield. Historically averages 150-180 basis points. During COVID-era QE the spread compressed to 130 bps; during the 2022-2023 banking stress and Fed QT it widened to 320 bps. Mortgage rates can rise even when Treasuries are stable if the spread widens (e.g. SVB collapse March 2023). The spread normalising back toward 200 bps in 2025-26 is a positive signal for housing affordability.
Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, published Thursdays at 12:00 ET, sourced via FRED as MORTGAGE30US. The series begins April 1971. This chart starts from 2000.
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