US CPI Inflation (Year-over-Year %)
US Consumer Price Index year-over-year percentage change from January 1948 to the latest release (3.35 percent for August 2026). The headline US inflation rate and the most market-moving macro data release in the world: a surprise of a tenth of a point against consensus can reprice the 2Y Treasury yield and AUD/USD within minutes. Includes the 2 percent Fed target line and the June 2022 peak (9.0 percent on this seasonally adjusted series, 9.1 percent in the unadjusted headline print). AUD-trader framing on the Fed reaction function, AUD/USD impact, and the RBA-vs-Fed differential.
Chart
US CPI year-over-year % change from January 1948. Green dashed line marks the Fed's 2 percent inflation target. The 2022 spike to 9.0 percent (9.1 unadjusted) was the highest since November 1981. Recessions shaded from 2001.
What does CPI YoY measure?
CPI YoY is the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over a rolling 12-month window. It strips out the long-term trend in the price level and surfaces the current rate of inflation. The Fed's policy reaction function is built around CPI YoY (alongside core PCE, the wages tracker, and labour-market data); financial markets price every macro asset off the implied path of the Fed Funds rate; that path is driven by inflation prints. CPI is the single most important macro number.
CPI YoY cycle history since 2000
| Period | CPI YoY range | Driver | Fed response |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000-2002 | 1.1% to 3.8% | Energy spike then dotcom bust | Cutting 2001 onwards |
| 2003-2006 | 1.4% to 4.7% | Housing-led demand | 17 hikes 2004-2006 |
| Jul 2008 | 5.5% peak | Commodity blowoff (oil to $147) | Cuts began Sep 2007 |
| Jul 2009 | -2.0% trough | GFC demand collapse | ZIRP + QE1 |
| 2010-2019 | -0.2% to 3.8% | Range-bound, 1.8% avg | QE2/QE3, gradual normalisation |
| Jun 2022 | 9.0% peak (9.1% unadjusted) | COVID M2 + supply shocks + Ukraine | Fastest hiking cycle since the early 1980s (0.08% to 5.33%) |
| 2023 | 3.1% to 6.3% | Disinflation underway | Hold at 5.33% |
| 2024-2026 | 2.3% to 4.2% (through Aug 2026) | Disinflation stalled, then re-accelerated in 2026 | Six cuts Sep 2024 to Dec 2025; 25 bps hike Sep 2026 |
Trader takeaway
- Direction matters more than level. A CPI YoY of 3.5 percent and falling is bullish for risk assets (Fed dovish); 3.5 percent and rising is bearish (Fed hawkish). The slope of the YoY line is the trade.
- Sticky services vs goods. Headline CPI YoY can mislead late in a cycle when goods disinflation is over but services inflation (housing, healthcare, insurance) remains sticky. Read Core CPI alongside headline to verify the underlying trend.
- AUD/USD setup ahead of CPI. Implied volatility in FX options rises into the print, and a clear miss either way can move AUD/USD sharply within minutes. Size accordingly.
- BTC reaction. Since 2022 Bitcoin has tended to trade CPI like a rates-sensitive risk asset: cool CPI = BTC up (dovish Fed = liquidity); hot CPI = BTC down (hawkish Fed = tightening). Expect the biggest intraday BTC moves around US CPI in the first hour after release.
Methodology
- Source. Computed locally from FRED series CPIAUCSL.
- Formula. YoY% = (CPI this month / CPI same month prior year - 1) × 100.
- Earliest valid datapoint. January 1948, 12 months after the CPIAUCSL series starts in January 1947. There is no October 2025 point: BLS did not publish October 2025 CPI because of the US government shutdown.
- Recession shading. NBER-dated US recessions from 2001 onwards (2001, 2007-09, 2020). Earlier recessions are not shaded.
- Refresh cadence. An automated cloud refresh pulls the series from FRED twice a day (07:30 and 13:30 Sydney time) and the site rebuilds when the data changes. If FRED is unreachable, the last good data is kept.
Related tools
- CPI Level - the cumulative inflation view.
- Core PCE Inflation - the Fed's preferred gauge.
- Fed Funds Rate - the policy response.
- M2 YoY % - the upstream monetary driver.
- 10Y Treasury Yield - the bond market's inflation pricing.
Frequently asked questions
US CPI inflation (year-over-year) is the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index compared to the same month one year prior. It is the headline inflation rate the Fed and financial media reference most. Published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, usually between the 10th and 15th of the month at 8:30 ET, the print is the highest-vol scheduled macro event in financial markets. The Fed's 2 percent goal is measured on PCE inflation rather than CPI, but CPI is what consumers and financial commentary track.
A combination of (a) the fastest M2 expansion in the post-1959 data (M2 up about 40 percent in two years), (b) the post-COVID demand normalisation hitting supply chains that hadn't yet recovered, (c) the Russia-Ukraine commodity shock from February 2022 onwards, and (d) deferred services-sector inflation as lockdowns ended. The June 2022 print at 9.1 percent year-over-year (9.0 percent on the seasonally adjusted series charted here) was the highest US CPI inflation since November 1981. The disinflation back to about 3 percent by mid-2023 came alongside the fastest Fed hiking cycle since the early 1980s.
Three direct channels. (1) AUD/USD: a hot US CPI print pushes the USD up via Fed-hawkishness expectations and pushes AUD/USD down. (2) ASX-listed US ETFs: USD strength on a hot print compresses the AUD value of US holdings (offsets some of the equity reaction). (3) RBA read-across: global inflation feeds into the RBA's outlook, and in the last cycle Australian CPI peaked about six months after US CPI (December quarter 2022 versus June 2022).
Core CPI excludes food and energy because both are volatile and dominated by supply rather than demand factors. Headline CPI captures the full consumer cost-of-living experience but is noisy. Core CPI gives a cleaner read on underlying inflation pressure. The Fed targets Core PCE (a different price index) rather than Core CPI, but Core CPI is the more market-moving series because BLS publishes CPI first. Both are tracked on the FRED endpoint; this page uses headline CPI YoY for consistency with the most-cited number.
Yes. It is the policy anchor the Fed has committed to in writing since 2012 (a symmetric 2 percent goal for PCE inflation). CPI YoY above the target keeps the Fed in or near a tightening posture; below the target opens space for cuts. The chart shows the 2 percent line as a reference, but the Fed's goal is on PCE, which has tended to run a few tenths below CPI, so CPI a little above 2 percent is broadly consistent with the goal.
BLS publishes CPI monthly, usually between the 10th and 15th of the month at 8:30 ET. The official BLS calendar at https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm lists exact release dates. The release covers the prior month's data: for example the September 2026 print covers August 2026 prices. Position sizing on AUD/USD or risk assets should account for upcoming CPI dates.
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