US CPI Inflation (Year-over-Year %)
US Consumer Price Index year-over-year percentage change from 2001 onwards. The headline US inflation rate. The most market-moving macro data release in the world: a 0.1 percent surprise from consensus can move the US 2Y Treasury yield by 5-10 basis points and the AUD/USD cross by 0.3 percent. Includes the 2 percent Fed target line and the 9.1 percent June 2022 peak. AUD-trader framing on Fed reaction function, AUD/USD impact, and RBA-vs-Fed differential.
Chart
US CPI year-over-year % change. Green dashed line marks the Fed's 2 percent inflation target. The 2022 spike to 9.1 percent was the highest CPI inflation since 1981.
What does CPI YoY measure?
CPI YoY is the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over a rolling 12-month window. It strips out the long-term trend in the price level and surfaces the current rate of inflation. The Fed's policy reaction function is built around CPI YoY (alongside core PCE, the wages tracker, and labour-market data); financial markets price every macro asset off the implied path of the Fed Funds rate; that path is driven by inflation prints. CPI is the single most important macro number.
CPI YoY cycle history since 2000
| Period | CPI YoY range | Driver | Fed response |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000-2002 | 1.1% to 3.8% | Energy spike then dotcom bust | Cutting 2001 onwards |
| 2003-2006 | 1.1% to 4.3% | Housing-led demand | 17 hikes 2004-2006 |
| Jul 2008 | 5.4% peak | Commodity blowoff (oil to $147) | Cuts began Sep 2007 |
| Jul 2009 | -2.0% trough | GFC demand collapse | ZIRP + QE1 |
| 2010-2019 | -0.2% to 3.9% | Range-bound, 1.6% avg | QE2/QE3, gradual normalisation |
| Jun 2022 | 9.1% peak | COVID M2 + supply shocks + Ukraine | Fastest hiking cycle ever (0 to 5.33%) |
| 2023 | 3.0% to 6.5% | Disinflation underway | Hold at 5.33% |
| 2024-2026 | ~2.5% to 3.5% | Normalisation, sticky services | Cuts from Sep 2024 |
Trader takeaway
- Direction matters more than level. A CPI YoY of 3.5 percent and falling is bullish for risk assets (Fed dovish); 3.5 percent and rising is bearish (Fed hawkish). The slope of the YoY line is the trade.
- Sticky services vs goods. Headline CPI YoY can mislead late in a cycle when goods disinflation is over but services inflation (housing, healthcare, insurance) remains sticky. Read Core CPI alongside headline to verify the underlying trend.
- AUD/USD setup ahead of CPI. Pre-print volatility implied by FX options spikes the day before. AUD/USD typically moves 0.2-0.5 percent on hot or soft prints. Size accordingly.
- BTC reaction. Bitcoin's correlation to CPI prints inverted starting late 2022: cool CPI = BTC up (dovish Fed = liquidity); hot CPI = BTC down (hawkish Fed = tightening). The inversion is currently the strongest single macro driver of intraday BTC moves around US CPI releases.
Methodology
- Source. Computed locally from FRED series CPIAUCSL.
- Formula. YoY% = (CPI this month / CPI same month prior year - 1) × 100.
- Earliest valid datapoint. Jan 2001 (12 months after series start at Jan 2000).
- Recession shading. NBER-dated US recessions.
- Static-first. Snapshot preserved if FRED is unreachable on build.
Related tools
- CPI Level - the cumulative inflation view.
- Core PCE Inflation - the Fed's preferred gauge.
- Fed Funds Rate - the policy response.
- M2 YoY % - the upstream monetary driver.
- 10Y Treasury Yield - the bond market's inflation pricing.
Frequently asked questions
US CPI inflation (year-over-year) is the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index compared to the same month one year prior. It is the headline inflation rate the Fed and financial media reference most. Published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics around the 13th of each month at 8:30 ET, the print is the highest-vol scheduled macro event in financial markets. The Fed has a 2 percent symmetric target measured on core PCE rather than headline CPI, but CPI is what consumers and financial commentary track.
A combination of (a) the largest peacetime M2 expansion in US history (M2 up 41 percent in 24 months), (b) the post-COVID demand normalisation hitting supply chains that hadn't yet recovered, (c) the Russia-Ukraine commodity shock from February 2022 onwards, and (d) deferred services-sector inflation as lockdowns ended. The June 2022 print at 9.1 percent year-over-year was the highest US CPI inflation since November 1981. The subsequent disinflation back to the low-3 percent range by 2024 took the fastest Fed hiking cycle in history.
Three direct channels. (1) AUD/USD: a hot US CPI print pushes the USD up via Fed-hawkishness expectations and pushes AUD/USD down. The June 2022 9.1 percent CPI print moved AUD/USD by over 1 percent on the day. (2) ASX-listed US ETFs: USD strength on a hot print compresses the AUD value of US holdings (offsets some of the equity reaction). (3) RBA reaction-function read-across: the RBA explicitly references US CPI in its monetary policy statements because the Australian inflation cycle typically lags the US by 3-6 months.
Core CPI excludes food and energy because both are volatile and dominated by supply rather than demand factors. Headline CPI captures the full consumer cost-of-living experience but is noisy. Core CPI gives a cleaner read on underlying inflation pressure. The Fed targets Core PCE (a different price index) rather than Core CPI, but Core CPI is the more market-moving series because BLS publishes CPI first. Both are tracked on the FRED endpoint; this page uses headline CPI YoY for consistency with the most-cited number.
Yes - it is the policy anchor the Fed has committed to in writing since 2012 (symmetric 2 percent target on core PCE). CPI YoY above the target keeps the Fed in or near tightening posture; below the target opens space for cuts. The chart shows the 2 percent line as a reference, but recognise that the Fed targets core PCE (typically running 0.3-0.5 percent below headline CPI in equilibrium), so headline CPI of 2.3-2.5 percent is consistent with core PCE at 2 percent.
BLS publishes CPI monthly, typically on the second or third Wednesday around 8:30 ET. The official BLS calendar at https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm lists exact release dates. The release covers the prior month's data: for example the September 2026 print covers August 2026 prices. Position sizing on AUD/USD or risk assets should account for upcoming CPI dates.
About the author
