US 10-Year Treasury Yield (DGS10)
Daily yield on the 10-year US Treasury constant-maturity benchmark (DGS10) from 2000 onwards. The world's reference long-end interest rate, the discount rate against which every long-duration asset prices, and the macro variable that moves USD, gold, BTC, and global equities in lockstep. Includes the August 2020 all-time low (0.51 percent) and the October 2023 peak (5.02 percent). AUD-trader framing on AUD/USD differential and AU government bond read-across.
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Daily US 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield. Recession-shaded.
What is the 10Y yield?
The 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield is the implied yield at a fixed 10-year remaining tenor, computed daily by the US Treasury from the closing prices of actively traded Treasuries. The "constant maturity" designation means the yield always reflects a hypothetical 10-year bond regardless of which specific issue is most-recently auctioned, allowing clean time-series comparison across decades.
The 10Y is the most-watched single number in global rates markets. It anchors mortgage pricing (30Y mortgages typically price at 10Y + 150 to 250 bps spread), investment-grade corporate credit, foreign reserve allocations, and equity discount-rate calculations.
Why AU traders watch the 10Y
- AUD/USD differential. The spread between US 10Y and Australian 10Y (ACGB) is a high-beta driver of AUD/USD on multi-month windows. Wider US-AU 10Y spread (US higher) tends to push AUD/USD lower.
- ACGB tracking. Australian 10Y yields show roughly 0.6-0.8 beta to US 10Y moves over rolling 12-month windows. RBA cash-rate decisions interact with US-anchored bond pricing.
- BTC and risk-asset cycle inflection. Major 10Y inflection points in 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2024 line up closely with major BTC AUD cycle inflection points. The 10Y peak in October 2023 preceded the BTC bull-market resumption by roughly 3 months.
- Mortgage and housing transmission. AU mortgage borrowers care about US 10Y because the AU 4-5Y fixed-rate market is heavily influenced by global rates. Refinance decisions ahead of major US 10Y inflection windows can save thousands in interest.
Methodology
- Source. FRED series DGS10 (daily, constant-maturity, par yield).
- Endpoint. Public fredgraph.csv.
- Recession shading. NBER-dated US recessions.
- Static-first. Snapshot preserved if FRED unreachable.
Related tools
- 2Y Treasury Yield - the short-end pair.
- 2Y/10Y Yield Curve - the spread (most-watched recession indicator).
- 30Y Mortgage Rate - the housing transmission.
- Fed Funds Rate - the policy anchor.
- CPI Inflation YoY - the inflation expectations input.
Frequently asked questions
It is the yield to maturity on the 10-year US Treasury note at a constant 10-year remaining tenor, computed daily by the US Treasury from the closing prices of on-the-run and seasoned Treasuries. FRED publishes the series as DGS10. It is the most-watched long-end rate in global financial markets and the discount rate against which equity, real estate, and long-duration USD bond valuations are anchored.
Three reasons. (1) Discount rate: the present value of future cash flows in equities is computed by discounting at a curve anchored on the 10Y. Higher 10Y compresses equity valuations; lower 10Y supports them. (2) Carry trade: when 10Y yields are attractive relative to corporate or international alternatives, capital flows into Treasuries, away from risk. (3) Mortgage and corporate credit: most US mortgage rates and investment-grade credit spreads price off the 10Y. Higher 10Y = higher mortgage rates = housing-market pressure = consumer spending pressure.
Through AUD/USD and AU bond read-across. (1) AUD/USD: the US-AU 10Y rate differential is one of the strongest fundamental drivers of the cross on multi-month horizons. Higher US 10Y relative to ACGB 10Y is AUD/USD-bearish. (2) AU government bond yields tend to track US yields with about a 0.6-0.8 beta, partly because RBA policy responds to global financial conditions and partly because Australian institutional bond demand is global. (3) For Australian-resident BTC and equity traders, the 10Y is the single best macro variable to watch for cycle inflection.
The 10Y yield bottomed at 0.51 percent on 4 August 2020 - the lowest yield in the recorded history of US Treasuries. Driven by the COVID emergency rate cuts, QE infinity, and a global flight-to-safety bid. The subsequent climb back to 5.02 percent in October 2023 was the fastest 10Y move in 40 years, mirroring the fastest Fed hiking cycle in history. The current ~4 percent range as of mid-2026 reflects normalisation.
Because the 10Y is a forward-looking discount of the expected path of short rates plus a term premium. The bond market is constantly pricing the Fed's reaction function to incoming data. By the time the Fed actually moves, the 10Y has often already repriced 50-100 basis points. The cleanest read of expected Fed policy is in Fed Funds futures + SOFR futures rather than the 10Y, but the 10Y captures longer-horizon expectations including any term premium changes.
The compensation investors demand for holding a 10-year bond rather than rolling 1-year bills for 10 years. Historically positive (you get paid for taking duration risk); occasionally negative (you pay for the convenience of duration, like in 2020-2021). The New York Fed's ACM model estimates term premium directly; it has averaged around 0.5 percent since 2000 but ranged from minus 1.0 to plus 4.5 percent across the period.
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