Bitcoin halving countdown and cycle performance overlay
Live, every-second countdown to the next Bitcoin halving (expected late March 2028). Plus a cycle performance overlay that plots Bitcoin's AUD price after each historical halving, indexed to 100 at the halving month, so the 2016, 2020, and 2024 cycles can be compared on a single logarithmic chart. AUD-native (most equivalent overlays online use USD). Auto-updated on every site refresh.
Live countdown to the next halving
The next Bitcoin halving is expected at block 1,050,000, with the network averaging close to a 10-minute block time. The countdown below ticks every second from your local clock against a 12:00 UTC target on the estimated date.
Cycle performance overlay (AUD)
Bitcoin's AUD price after each historical halving, with the halving month indexed to 100. Hover any month to compare the 2016, 2020, and 2024 cycles at the same point post-halving. Logarithmic Y axis so the cycles are visually comparable despite vastly different absolute prices.
All Bitcoin halving dates (past and future)
| Halving # | Date | Block | Block reward | Cycle outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 28 November 2012 | 210,000 | 50 BTC → 25 BTC | 2013 cycle top (Nov 2013, $1,150 USD) |
| 2nd | 9 July 2016 | 420,000 | 25 BTC → 12.5 BTC | 2017 cycle top (Dec 2017, $19,800 USD) |
| 3rd | 11 May 2020 | 630,000 | 12.5 BTC → 6.25 BTC | 2021 cycle top (Nov 2021, $69,000 USD) |
| 4th | 19 April 2024 | 840,000 | 6.25 BTC → 3.125 BTC | Current cycle (in progress) |
| 5th (est.) | ~18 April 2028 | 1,050,000 | 3.125 BTC → 1.5625 BTC | TBD |
| 6th (est.) | ~April 2032 | 1,260,000 | 1.5625 BTC → 0.78125 BTC | TBD |
When is the next Bitcoin halving?
The next Bitcoin halving (the 5th in history) is estimated for April 18 2028, when Bitcoin block 1,050,000 will be mined. At that point the block reward drops from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC per block. The exact date varies by a few days depending on actual block-production speed vs the 10-minute target. The halving happens automatically at the protocol level - no vote, no fork required - and reduces the annualised new-supply rate by 50 percent.
How does the halving affect Bitcoin's price?
Historically, Bitcoin's strongest gains have come in the 12 to 18 months FOLLOWING each halving, not on the halving day itself. The "post-halving summer" phase is the most-cited 4-year cycle pattern:
- 2012 halving (Nov 2012): BTC ~$12 → $1,150 by Nov 2013 (~96x in 12 months)
- 2016 halving (Jul 2016): BTC ~$650 → $19,800 by Dec 2017 (~30x in 17 months)
- 2020 halving (May 2020): BTC ~$8,800 → $69,000 by Nov 2021 (~7.8x in 18 months)
- 2024 halving (Apr 2024): BTC ~$64,000 → in progress; current cycle's late-2025 / 2026 window is the historical analogue for a peak.
Each cycle's gain magnitude has been smaller than the prior (diminishing returns as market cap grows), but the directional pattern - post-halving rally peaking 12-18 months later - has held across all three completed halving cycles. Caveats: sample size is only 3 cycles, the 2024 cycle has been distorted by ETF inflows starting BEFORE the halving (an unprecedented dynamic), and Bitcoin's market structure has matured significantly since 2012.
What is the Bitcoin halving?
Bitcoin's consensus rules define a fixed issuance schedule. Each block (mined roughly every 10 minutes) creates a fixed number of new bitcoin, called the block subsidy. The subsidy started at 50 BTC per block in January 2009 when the network launched. Every 210,000 blocks (roughly every four years), the subsidy is cut in half. This is the halving.
The halving is hardcoded into Bitcoin's reference implementation and has been preserved in every node version since 2009. Every Bitcoin Core release, every alternative client (btcd, Knots, Bitcoin Knots, etc.) honours the schedule. There is no mechanism to skip, delay, or modify a halving; the rule is enforced by every node on the network.
Four halvings have occurred:
- First halving (28 November 2012). 50 BTC to 25 BTC. Bitcoin was trading at roughly 12 USD; about 10.5 million BTC had been issued.
- Second halving (9 July 2016). 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC. Bitcoin was trading at roughly 650 USD; about 15.75 million BTC had been issued.
- Third halving (11 May 2020). 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. Bitcoin was trading at roughly 8,500 USD; about 18.375 million BTC had been issued.
- Fourth halving (19 April 2024). 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Bitcoin was trading at roughly 64,000 USD; about 19.7 million BTC had been issued.
The next halving (fifth, expected late March 2028 at block 1,050,000) will cut the subsidy to 1.5625 BTC per block.
Supply schedule and the 21 million cap
The halving schedule is the mechanism that enforces Bitcoin's fixed 21 million supply cap. The total amount of bitcoin that will ever exist is the sum of a geometric series:
Total supply = 210,000 × (50 + 25 + 12.5 + 6.25 + 3.125 + ...)
= 210,000 × 100
= 21,000,000 BTC
The sum converges because each term is half the previous one. By the time the subsidy rounds to zero (around 2140), roughly 20,999,999.9769 BTC will have been issued. The fractional shortfall is an artefact of integer rounding in Bitcoin's satoshi accounting (1 BTC = 100 million satoshis).
As of May 2026, roughly 19.85 million BTC have been issued, or about 94.5 percent of the total supply. The remaining 5.5 percent will be issued over the next 114 years, with the issuance rate halving every four years. After the 2032 halving, the annual issuance rate falls below 0.85 percent. After the 2040 halving, it falls below 0.2 percent. These are far lower issuance rates than gold's annual production (roughly 1.5 percent of above-ground supply added per year) or the US dollar money supply (a few percent per year).
Halving cycle theory
The "halving cycle" thesis is the observation that Bitcoin's price has historically traced a similar pattern in the 4 years following each halving: a roughly 12 to 18 month bull market peaking in a cycle top, then a roughly 12 to 24 month bear market bottoming, then a roughly 12 to 18 month accumulation phase leading into the next halving.
The cycle overlay chart above plots this directly: each line is Bitcoin's AUD price from one halving date forward, with the halving month indexed to 100. The overlay lets you compare how each cycle progressed at the same point post-halving.
Three points worth noting when looking at the overlay:
- Cycle tops have all occurred within 12 to 18 months after the halving. 2013 top was roughly 12 months after the 2012 halving; 2017 top was roughly 18 months after the 2016 halving; 2021 top was roughly 18 months after the 2020 halving.
- Cycle gains have decreased each cycle. 2013 cycle gained roughly 100x from the halving level. 2017 cycle gained roughly 25x. 2021 cycle gained roughly 8x. The diminishing-returns pattern reflects Bitcoin's growing market-cap base: doubling a smaller market is easier than doubling a larger one.
- The 2024 cycle is still in progress. The gold line on the chart represents the cycle following the April 2024 halving. Where it ends up relative to the prior cycles is the most-watched question in the space.
The cycle theory is empirical, not deterministic. There is no causal mechanism that says Bitcoin must pump after a halving. The thesis is that halved supply growth combined with continued (or growing) demand shifts the supply-demand balance enough to drive cyclical bull markets. If demand softens, or if other variables (macro liquidity, ETF flows, halving expectations already priced in) dominate, the pattern could weaken or break. Past cycle behaviour is one input, not a forecast.
Halving history
The full history of Bitcoin halvings, including the next estimated event:
| Halving | Date | Block height | Subsidy before | Subsidy after | Status |
|---|
Australian tax angle
Bitcoin halvings do not directly trigger any Australian tax event for the holder. The halving cuts the rate of new BTC minted by miners; existing holders see no change to their holdings, cost base, or capital gains position from the protocol event itself.
Tax exposure comes from what you do around the halving, not the halving itself:
- Selling or disposing during the post-halving bull market. Capital gains tax (CGT) applies on the difference between disposal proceeds and your cost base. Held for over 12 months, an Australian-resident individual gets the 50 percent CGT discount. The Crypto CGT Calculator applies the discount to a specific disposal.
- Rebalancing during the cycle. Selling part of a Bitcoin position to take profits and rotating into AUD or another asset is a CGT event on the portion sold. Same rules apply.
- Tax loss harvesting in the post-halving bear market. If the cycle later draws down, realising losses (selling and re-buying after the wash-sale window) can offset other capital gains in the same financial year. The Tax Loss Harvesting Calculator estimates EOFY savings.
- Mining or staking rewards. Mining rewards are ordinary income at the AUD value on the day received (and added to your cost base for future CGT). The halving cuts the AUD value of mining rewards by 50 percent (assuming Bitcoin's AUD price stays flat at the halving moment, which it never does).
The ATO's guidance on crypto tax has been stable since 2014: Crypto asset investments. Treat each disposal as a CGT event. Keep records of every buy, sell, swap, and reward.
Related tools
- Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD) - long-run fair value and ±σ bands. Complements the halving overlay by giving an absolute (vs indexed) reference.
- Bitcoin Rainbow Chart (AUD) - sentiment-labelled version of the log regression. Easy at-a-glance cycle-phase classification.
- Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Indicator (AUD) - has fired approximately 18 months after each halving historically.
- Bitcoin Risk Metric (AUD) - 0/100 risk gauge based on the regression deviation. Updates with every monthly close.
- Bitcoin Dominance Chart - rotation context. Dominance typically peaks 12-18 months into each post-halving bull market.
- Altcoin Season Index - alt rotation typically follows the post-halving BTC-led leg.
- Bitcoin Monthly Returns Heatmap (AUD) - month-by-month colour-coded returns across every Bitcoin year.
- Crypto Fear and Greed Index - the daily sentiment indicator most-cited alongside the halving cycle thesis.
- Crypto CGT Calculator - apply the ATO 50 percent discount to a Bitcoin disposal during the post-halving bull or bear.
Frequently asked questions
The fifth Bitcoin halving is currently estimated for late March 2028, at block 1,050,000. The exact date is not fixed because Bitcoin's block time averages around 10 minutes but varies with network hashrate. The estimate refreshes annually as hashrate trends become clearer. The previous halving (the fourth) occurred on 19 April 2024 at block 840,000, when the block subsidy dropped from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block.
The Bitcoin halving is a protocol-level event that cuts the block subsidy (the new bitcoin minted with each block) in half. It occurs every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years. The first halving in November 2012 reduced the subsidy from 50 BTC per block to 25 BTC. The most recent (fourth) halving in April 2024 reduced it from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Halvings are written into Bitcoin's consensus rules and have never been missed. They will continue until the block subsidy rounds to zero around the year 2140.
The halving cuts the rate of new bitcoin supply in half. Existing supply (the bitcoin already mined, roughly 19.7 million of the 21 million cap as of 2026) continues to circulate, but the inflow of newly-minted coins drops by 50 percent overnight. If demand stays constant, halved supply growth shifts the supply-demand balance. The historical pattern is that the 12 to 18 months following each halving have coincided with major bull markets, though the relationship is correlational, not deterministic. Many other variables (macro liquidity, ETF flows, halving expectations already priced in) shape the actual price path.
The overlay chart plots Bitcoin's AUD price after each historical halving, with the halving month indexed to 100. The X axis is months since the halving (0 to 48). The Y axis is the indexed price on a logarithmic scale. The chart shows three full historical cycles (2016, 2020, and 2024) on one canvas, so you can compare how each cycle progressed in the 4 years following its halving. The current cycle (post-April 2024) is drawn in gold and highlighted as the most recent.
Historically yes, but the pattern is correlational, not guaranteed. Every halving since 2012 has been followed within 12 to 18 months by a cycle top that exceeded the prior cycle's top. However, the gain magnitude has decreased each cycle (2013 cycle gained roughly 100x from the halving, 2017 gained roughly 25x, 2021 gained roughly 8x). The 2024 cycle is still in progress as of this writing. The diminishing-returns pattern reflects Bitcoin's growing market cap base: doubling a smaller market is easier than doubling a larger one.
Bitcoin's protocol targets a 10-minute average block time. Difficulty adjusts every 2,016 blocks (roughly every two weeks) to maintain that target. To project the next halving date, the estimate takes the average block time over the last 6 months of mined blocks and projects it forward from the current block height to block 1,050,000. Higher hashrate produces faster blocks (and earlier halving); lower hashrate produces slower blocks (and later halving). The estimate is reviewed annually.
Bitcoin is priced in USD on global exchanges, but Australian-resident investors measure portfolio value in AUD. The AUD-USD exchange rate moves independently of Bitcoin's price, so an AUD-native cycle overlay can show subtly different cycle slopes than the USD equivalent. The AUD-native version is the correct reference for an Australian-resident investor. The historical AUD monthly closes come from the same data feed used by the other Bitcoin charts on this site.
The progress bar shows where we are in the current halving cycle. It is computed as (days since the previous halving) divided by (total days in the current cycle), expressed as a percentage. The previous halving was 19 April 2024 (4-year midpoint), and the next is estimated for late March 2028. So the cycle midpoint (50 percent) falls around early-to-mid 2026, and the cycle completes when the 2028 halving occurs.
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