Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Indicator (AUD)
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator is one of 9 valuation signals in Tier 1 of the SatoshiMacro Model, a free 48-signal Bitcoin cycle confluence indicator. The signal fires when the 111-day moving average crosses above the 350-day moving average multiplied by 2. On USD prices it fired within days of the December 2013, December 2017 and April 2021 highs. On the AUD prices charted here it fired once, on 17 December 2017, one day after that cycle's peak close, and the April 2021 crossover never completed. It reads 0.45 as of 8 October 2026. AUD-native (most online versions are USD-only), refreshed daily, with the current signal state and historical crossover events surfaced inline.
Chart
The signal fires when the cyan line (111-day moving average) crosses above the red line (350-day moving average multiplied by 2). Red vertical lines mark historical crossover events. Hover any point on the chart for the exact daily values.
Has the Pi Cycle Top fired yet this cycle?
No. The current Pi Cycle Top ratio is 0.45 as of 8 October 2026. The highest reading this cycle was 0.737 on 30 May 2024. Since the slow line first appears on 16 December 2013, the chart has recorded 1 crossover: 17 December 2017 (ratio 1.002, BTC A$24,727). The 2017 firing came one day after Bitcoin's 16 December 2017 peak close of A$25,033.
| Date | Ratio | BTC AUD context |
|---|---|---|
| 17 December 2017 | 1.002 (crossover) | BTC AUD A$24,727, one day after the 16 December 2017 peak close of A$25,033 |
| 21 January 2018 | 1.059 (peak ratio after the crossover) | BTC AUD A$14,438, five weeks into the 2018 bear market |
The 2021 cycle depends on which currency you price Bitcoin in. On USD prices the 111DMA crossed above the 350DMA x 2 in mid-April 2021, days before the 14 April local high. On AUD prices it never crossed: the ratio peaked at 0.976 on 19 April 2021, because the Australian dollar strengthened across the 350-day averaging window and flattened the AUD-denominated rally. Neither series came close to 1.0 again before the higher November 2021 top. That is the model's most-cited false negative: it caught the first 2021 peak in USD terms and missed the final one in both currencies.
What does a Pi Cycle ratio of 0.45 mean?
At 0.45, the 111-day moving average (A$101,038) is 45% of the 350-day moving average times 2 (A$224,668). Put another way, the 111DMA is 10% below the plain 350DMA. For the indicator to fire, the 111DMA has to climb to twice the 350DMA. That has only happened in parabolic late-cycle phases, when the short average races far ahead of the long one.
The chart's stat strip classifies the current reading as Far from signal, using the bands below. Since 2015 the ratio has ranged from 0.30 (September 2022) to 1.059 (January 2018).
What are the Pi Cycle Top zones?
- 1.0 and above - Signal fired: historically rare. On AUD prices only December 2017 to early 2018 (and the first three months of the series, December 2013 to March 2014).
- 0.95 to 1.0 - Approaching signal zone: late-cycle parabolic territory. The April 2021 AUD peak reached 0.976 here without crossing.
- 0.7 to 0.95 - Mid-cycle: strong bull-market phases. The 2024 high reached 0.737 in May 2024.
- Below 0.7 - Far from signal: bear markets, recoveries and most of the 2024-2025 cycle.
What is the Pi Cycle Top Indicator?
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator is built from two simple moving averages of Bitcoin's daily closing price:
- Fast line: 111-day simple moving average (111DMA). The average price over the trailing 111 days.
- Slow line: 350-day simple moving average multiplied by 2 (350DMA × 2). Take the average price over the trailing 350 days, then multiply by 2.
The signal fires when the 111DMA crosses above the 350DMA × 2. The framework was first published by Philip Swift (LookIntoBitcoin) around 2019 after he noticed the relationship empirically on Bitcoin's prior cycles.
Why these numbers: 350 divided by 111 equals approximately 3.153, which is close to pi (3.14159...). This is where the name comes from. The multiplier of 2 on the slow line is empirically chosen to match the historical cycle-top crossovers. There is no strict theoretical derivation; the framework is curve-fitted to three historical cycles.
How to read the chart
Three coloured lines plus event markers:
- Gold line (background). Bitcoin's daily AUD close. The actual price.
- Cyan line. The 111-day moving average. Faster, more responsive to recent price action.
- Red line. The 350-day moving average multiplied by 2. Slower, lags significantly behind the price.
- Red vertical dashed lines. Historical crossover events where the 111DMA crossed above the 350DMA × 2. On AUD prices there is one, on 17 December 2017, one day after that cycle's peak close.
The current signal state is displayed in the stat strip directly above the chart. Five distinct states:
- Signal fired. The 111DMA is at or above the 350DMA × 2 right now. Historically a top-zone signal.
- Approaching signal zone. The 111DMA is within 5 percent of the 350DMA × 2. The signal has historically fired when this gap closes to zero.
- Mid-cycle. The 111DMA is 70 to 95 percent of the 350DMA × 2. Historical cycle middle.
- Far from signal. The 111DMA is below 70 percent of the 350DMA × 2. No top-zone signal active.
- Insufficient data. The dataset has fewer than 350 days. Not enough history to compute the slow moving average.
Historical accuracy
The record depends on the currency the moving averages are built from:
- December 2013 cycle top. Fired within days of the peak on USD prices. Not measurable on this AUD chart, because the data starts in January 2013 and the 350-day average only begins on 16 December 2013. Bitcoin then fell 83 percent in AUD terms into January 2015.
- December 2017 cycle top. Fired on 17 December 2017 on AUD prices, one day after the 16 December peak close of A$25,033. Bitcoin then fell 82 percent in AUD terms over the following 12 months.
- April 2021 cycle top. Fired in mid-April 2021 on USD prices, days before the 14 April high. On AUD prices it never crossed (peak ratio 0.976). The November 2021 top was NOT signalled in either currency.
On USD prices that is three hits in four tops; on AUD prices it is one clean hit in three measurable tops. Statistical confidence is limited by the small sample size; the framework could plausibly fire in a future cycle without a top following, or fail to fire at a future top. Treat the historical hit rate as encouraging but not predictive.
Where the model breaks down
Pi Cycle is a statistical pattern-recognition tool, not a fundamental valuation framework. Several known limitations:
- Three samples. The framework is curve-fitted to three historical cycle tops. Three is a very small dataset. Statistical confidence in the generalisation is limited.
- Curve-fitting risk. The choice of 111 days, 350 days, and the multiplier of 2 was reverse-engineered from the historical data. A different parameter choice would have signalled different events on the same price history. The published parameters were not predicted in advance.
- It cannot detect double tops. Bitcoin's 2021 cycle had two distinct tops (April and November). On USD prices Pi Cycle signalled the April top but missed the November high; on AUD prices it missed both. Future cycles could have similar structure.
- It is a top-zone signal, not a precise sell date. When it has fired, the peak has been within days of the crossover, but identifying the peak in real time is much harder than in hindsight. Volume around the crossover is typically high, with the price chopping sideways before the drawdown begins.
- The framework assumes Bitcoin cycles remain similar to past cycles. If institutional adoption smooths future cycles (lower volatility, no clear top), the indicator's reliability degrades. Conversely, if cycle structure remains, Pi Cycle remains a useful signal.
Methodology
- Data source. Daily BTC/AUD closes from January 2013: Bitstamp BTC/USD converted at the daily AUD/USD rate, with Kraken's native BTC/AUD market for the last two years. Refreshed automatically every day. The slow line starts on 16 December 2013.
- Fast line. Trailing 111-day simple moving average of the daily close. First value appears at day 111.
- Slow line. Trailing 350-day simple moving average of the daily close, multiplied by 2. First value appears at day 350.
- Signal detection. Walk the time series day by day. A signal is recorded when (a) the prior-day fast value was below the prior-day slow value AND (b) the current-day fast value is at or above the current-day slow value. After a fire, the signal is "armed" again only after the fast line drops back below 92 percent of the slow line, so we capture distinct cycle signals rather than oscillations around the crossover point.
- Recompute on every page load. The chart recomputes the moving averages and re-detects signals from the latest data file.
- Resilience. If a price source is unreachable, the previous data file is kept so the chart continues to render with the last good data.
Related tools
- Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD) - long-run fair value with ±1σ / ±2σ bands. Pi Cycle is a precise top-zone signal; log regression gives the long-run valuation context.
- Bitcoin Rainbow Chart (AUD) - sentiment-labelled version of the log regression (Fire Sale to Maximum Bubble Territory bands).
- Bitcoin Dominance Chart - rotation context. Dominance often peaks before Pi Cycle fires, then falls during the late-cycle alt rotation.
- Altcoin Season Index - flow companion to dominance. Full Altcoin Season classifications often follow Pi Cycle by weeks-to-months.
- Bitcoin Risk Metric (AUD) - 0 to 1 cycle positioning score from the log regression deviation. Cross-reference with Pi Cycle state.
- Bitcoin Halving Countdown + Cycle Overlay - cycle-time context. Pi Cycle has fired approximately 18 months after each halving historically.
- Bitcoin Monthly Returns Heatmap (AUD) - month-by-month colour-coded returns. Identify the post-Pi-Cycle drawdown pattern.
- Crypto Exit Strategy Ladder - build a laddered exit plan with per-rung CGT. Useful execution layer when Pi Cycle approaches the signal zone.
- Crypto CGT Calculator - apply the ATO 50 percent discount to a Bitcoin disposal triggered by a Pi Cycle signal.
Frequently asked questions
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator is a Bitcoin cycle-top signal built from two moving averages of price. The fast line is a 111-day simple moving average. The slow line is a 350-day simple moving average multiplied by 2. The signal fires when the fast line crosses above the slow line. On USD prices the crossover came within a few days of the 2013, 2017 and April 2021 peaks; on the AUD prices charted here it fired only in December 2017, one day after the peak close. The name comes from the ratio 350 divided by 111 which is approximately 3.153, close to pi. The framework was popularised by Philip Swift (LookIntoBitcoin) around 2019.
It depends on the currency. On USD prices the Pi Cycle Top is credited with three hits: December 2013, December 2017 and April 2021, each within a few days of the local high, and it missed the higher November 2021 top. On the AUD prices charted here the record is thinner. The data starts in January 2013, so the 350-day average only exists from 16 December 2013, after the 2013 peak. The December 2017 crossover fired on 17 December 2017, one day after the peak close of A$25,033. The April 2021 crossover never completed in AUD (the ratio peaked at 0.976 on 19 April 2021), and November 2021 was missed in both currencies. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
Bitcoin is priced in USD on global exchanges, but Australian-resident investors measure portfolio value in AUD. The Pi Cycle signal itself is currency-agnostic (the crossover happens at the same moment regardless of the price currency, because both moving averages are in the same units). However, having the chart in AUD is the right reference for an Australian-resident investor evaluating their own portfolio. Most online Pi Cycle charts are USD-only (LookIntoBitcoin, Bitbo, Coinglass).
The numbers come from the framework's developer (Philip Swift) and have a numerical-coincidence story rather than a strict theoretical derivation. 350 divided by 111 equals 3.153, which is close to pi. Why the multiplier of 2 on the slow line: empirically chosen to match the historical cycle-top crossovers. The framework is curve-fitted to three historical cycles; there is no first-principles guarantee it generalises to future cycles.
Not on the full-history dataset with the standard parameters. Every firing on USD prices came within days of a cycle top, and the single AUD firing (December 2017) did too. The bigger weakness is false negatives: the November 2021 top was missed in both currencies, and the AUD series also missed April 2021. Three samples is a small dataset; statistical confidence is limited. The framework could plausibly fire in a future cycle WITHOUT a top following, or fail to fire AT a future top. Treat the signal as one input in a broader decision framework, not a sell trigger on its own.
The current signal state is displayed in the stat strip directly under the chart, alongside the current 111DMA, current 350DMA times 2, the ratio between them, and the gap to the signal-fire threshold. The Interpretation paragraph translates the current state into plain English (signal fired, approaching, mid-cycle, or far from signal).
Not as a standalone rule. The Pi Cycle is a top-zone indicator, not a precise sell signal. Historically the actual peak has occurred within days of the crossover, but identifying the peak in real time is much harder than identifying it in hindsight. A more conservative approach is to use the signal as one trigger in a ladder-out strategy (sell a fraction of your position on the crossover, more on a further +20 percent move, etc). Combine with the Crypto Exit Strategy Ladder tool for execution. For tax planning around a partial disposal, use the Crypto CGT Calculator.
Daily BTC/AUD closes from January 2013: Bitstamp BTC/USD converted at the daily AUD/USD rate, with Kraken's native BTC/AUD market for the last two years. Refreshed automatically every day. If a price source is unreachable, the previous data file is kept so the chart continues to render with the last good data. The 'data through' line under the chart tells you the exact data window.
No. On USD prices the Pi Cycle Top fired 3 times (2013-12, 2017-12, 2021-04), each within days of the price peak, and did NOT signal the higher 2021-11 top because the moving averages never re-crossed. Three of four is the USD record. On the AUD prices charted here only the 2017-12 firing registers, so the AUD record for measurable tops is one of three. The framework is also curve-fitted to three samples (the 111 / 350 / 2x parameters were reverse-engineered from historical price), so generalisation to future cycles is uncertain. Treat Pi Cycle Top as one input in a broader confluence framework rather than a standalone sell trigger. The SatoshiMacro Model combines Pi Cycle Top with 47 other signals across 6 weighted tiers to reduce dependence on any single indicator's failure mode.
Pi Cycle Top sits in Tier 1 (Valuation & Cycle Position) of the SatoshiMacro Model at 25 per cent of total composite weight, alongside 8 other valuation signals (MVRV Z-Score, Mayer Multiple, 2-Year MA Multiplier, 200-Week MA distance, Power Law deviation, Golden Ratio Multiplier, Rainbow Chart position, Bitcoin Risk Metric). Each signal is normalised to its own historical percentile rank, so a Pi Cycle ratio of 0.85 (about the 89th percentile of its AUD history) and a Mayer Multiple of 2.3 (about the 97th) both feed in as high readings on a common scale. The tier-averaged score then contributes 25 per cent to the final 0-100 SMM composite. This reduces Pi Cycle's single-indicator failure modes (like missing the 2021-11 echo top) while preserving its precision when it does fire.
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