Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Indicator (AUD)

Has the Pi Cycle Top fired yet this cycle?

No. The current Pi Cycle Top ratio is 0.59 as of the latest daily close, still well below the 1.0 firing threshold. In the entire post-2014 sample, the indicator has crossed above 1.0 on only one date: 27 November 2017, with the peak ratio of 1.023 reached on 25 December 2017 - approximately 11 days after Bitcoin's December 17, 2017 cycle top of A$25,000.

The 2021 cycle did NOT trigger a Pi Cycle firing. The ratio peaked at approximately 0.93 in April 2021 around BTC's first cycle peak, then never approached 1.0 again before the November 2021 final top. This is the model's most-cited false negative: it correctly avoided firing during the 2021 cycle, but it also missed signalling that top.

What does a Pi Cycle ratio of 0.59 mean?

At 0.59, the 111-day moving average is currently 59% of the 350-day moving average times 2 - i.e., the 111DMA is about 18% above the 350DMA in absolute terms. For the indicator to fire, the 111DMA would need to roughly double its current pace of acceleration relative to the 350DMA. Historically that has required Bitcoin to enter a parabolic late-cycle phase with month-on-month gains of 30%+.

The 0.59 reading places Pi Cycle in the mid-cycle zone (0.5 to 0.85). Readings below 0.5 typically indicate cycle bottoms or extended bear-market consolidations; readings above 0.85 indicate the late-cycle near-signal zone.

What are the Pi Cycle Top zones?

• Above 1.0 - SIGNAL FIRED (red): historically rare. Marked the 2017 cycle top within weeks. Has not fired since.
• 0.85 to 1.0 - Near signal (orange): late-cycle parabolic territory. The 2021 cycle reached 0.93 at its first peak.
• 0.5 to 0.85 - Mid cycle (amber): typical of mid-cycle BTC-led phases.
• Below 0.5 - Bottom zone (green): bear-market or early-recovery zone.

What is the Pi Cycle Top Indicator?

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator is built from two simple moving averages of Bitcoin's daily closing price:

• Fast line: 111-day simple moving average (111DMA). The average price over the trailing 111 days.
• Slow line: 350-day simple moving average multiplied by 2 (350DMA × 2). Take the average price over the trailing 350 days, then multiply by 2.

The signal fires when the 111DMA crosses above the 350DMA × 2. The framework was first published by Philip Swift (LookIntoBitcoin) around 2019 after he noticed the relationship empirically on Bitcoin's prior cycles.

Why these numbers: 350 divided by 111 equals approximately 3.153, which is close to pi (3.14159...). This is where the name comes from. The multiplier of 2 on the slow line is empirically chosen to match the historical cycle-top crossovers. There is no strict theoretical derivation; the framework is curve-fitted to three historical cycles.

How to read the chart

Three coloured lines plus event markers:

• Gold line (background). Bitcoin's daily AUD close. The actual price.
• Cyan line. The 111-day moving average. Faster, more responsive to recent price action.
• Red line. The 350-day moving average multiplied by 2. Slower, lags significantly behind the price.
• Red vertical dashed lines. Historical crossover events where the 111DMA crossed above the 350DMA × 2. These align with the 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycle tops.

The current signal state is displayed in the stat strip directly above the chart. Five distinct states:

• Signal fired. The 111DMA is at or above the 350DMA × 2 right now. Historically a top-zone signal.
• Approaching signal zone. The 111DMA is within 5 percent of the 350DMA × 2. The signal has historically fired when this gap closes to zero.
• Mid-cycle. The 111DMA is 70 to 95 percent of the 350DMA × 2. Historical cycle middle.
• Far from signal. The 111DMA is below 70 percent of the 350DMA × 2. No top-zone signal active.
• Insufficient data. The dataset has fewer than 350 days. Not enough history to compute the slow moving average.

Historical accuracy

Three documented hits across three Bitcoin cycle tops:

• December 2013 cycle top. The crossover occurred within 1 day of the actual price peak. Bitcoin then drew down approximately 85 percent over the following year.
• December 2017 cycle top. The crossover occurred within 1 day of the actual peak. Bitcoin then drew down approximately 84 percent over the following 12 months.
• April 2021 cycle top. The crossover occurred on 11 April 2021. Bitcoin's local high was 14 April 2021. The November 2021 secondary peak was NOT signalled by Pi Cycle because the moving averages had reset by then.

That is three for three within a 3-day window across three cycles. Statistical confidence is limited by the small sample size; the framework could plausibly fire in a future cycle without a top following, or fail to fire at a future top. Treat the historical hit rate as encouraging but not predictive.

Where the model breaks down

Pi Cycle is a statistical pattern-recognition tool, not a fundamental valuation framework. Several known limitations:

• Three samples. The framework is curve-fitted to three historical cycle tops. Three is a very small dataset. Statistical confidence in the generalisation is limited.
• Curve-fitting risk. The choice of 111 days, 350 days, and the multiplier of 2 was reverse-engineered from the historical data. A different parameter choice would have signalled different events on the same price history. The published parameters were not predicted in advance.
• It cannot detect double tops. Bitcoin's 2021 cycle had two distinct tops (April and November). Pi Cycle signalled the April top but missed the November high. Future cycles could have similar structure.
• It is a top-zone signal, not a precise sell date. Historically the actual peak has been within 3 days of the crossover, but identifying the peak in real time is much harder than in hindsight. Volume around the crossover is typically high, with the price chopping sideways before the drawdown begins.
• The framework assumes Bitcoin cycles remain similar to past cycles. If institutional adoption smooths future cycles (lower volatility, no clear top), the indicator's reliability degrades. Conversely, if cycle structure remains, Pi Cycle remains a useful signal.

Methodology

1. Data source. Bitcoin AUD daily close prices, refreshed on every site build from a public market-data endpoint. Coverage from 2014 onwards.
2. Fast line. Trailing 111-day simple moving average of the daily close. First value appears at day 111.
3. Slow line. Trailing 350-day simple moving average of the daily close, multiplied by 2. First value appears at day 350.
4. Signal detection. Walk the time series day by day. A signal is recorded when (a) the prior-day fast value was below the prior-day slow value AND (b) the current-day fast value is at or above the current-day slow value. After a fire, the signal is "armed" again only after the fast line drops back below 92 percent of the slow line, so we capture distinct cycle signals rather than oscillations around the crossover point.
5. Recompute on every site build. The chart re-fits the moving averages and re-detects signals using the latest data.
6. Resilience. If the upstream source is unreachable during a build, the previous static data file is preserved unchanged so the chart continues to render with the last-known-good data.

Related tools

• Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD) - long-run fair value with ±1σ / ±2σ bands. Pi Cycle is a precise top-zone signal; log regression gives the long-run valuation context.
• Bitcoin Rainbow Chart (AUD) - sentiment-labelled version of the log regression (Fire Sale to Maximum Bubble Territory bands).
• Bitcoin Dominance Chart - rotation context. Dominance often peaks before Pi Cycle fires, then falls during the late-cycle alt rotation.
• Altcoin Season Index - flow companion to dominance. Full Altcoin Season classifications often follow Pi Cycle by weeks-to-months.
• Bitcoin Risk Metric (AUD) - 0 to 1 cycle positioning score from the log regression deviation. Cross-reference with Pi Cycle state.
• Bitcoin Halving Countdown + Cycle Overlay - cycle-time context. Pi Cycle has fired approximately 18 months after each halving historically.
• Bitcoin Monthly Returns Heatmap (AUD) - month-by-month colour-coded returns. Identify the post-Pi-Cycle drawdown pattern.
• Crypto Exit Strategy Ladder - build a laddered exit plan with per-rung CGT. Useful execution layer when Pi Cycle approaches the signal zone.
• Crypto CGT Calculator - apply the ATO 50 percent discount to a Bitcoin disposal triggered by a Pi Cycle signal.

Frequently asked questions

About the author

Govind Satoshi

Former Institutional Trader. Founder, SatoshiMacro.

Traded allocated institutional capital at a Sydney proprietary trading firm.