Crypto fear and greed index
The current value of the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, refreshed live on every page load. Below the gauge: the 30-day history showing how sentiment has shifted recently. The index is a contrarian sentiment signal popular with crypto investors who want to be greedy when others are fearful (and fearful when others are greedy).
Current index
Live Crypto Fear and Greed Index on a 0-100 scale. 0 means extreme fear (the market is panicking); 100 means extreme greed (the market is euphoric). Hover any point on the 30-day chart to see the exact date and value.
30-day history
Hover for exact daily values
What is the current Crypto Fear and Greed reading?
The current reading is 31, classified as "Fear". That places sentiment in the lower-mid range - meaningfully cautious without reaching the contrarian-buy threshold of "Extreme Fear" (below 25). The 30-day average of 42.7 places average sentiment in upper-Fear / lower-Neutral territory, suggesting market participants have been broadly defensive over the trailing month without panic selling.
30-day band distribution
| Band | Range | Days (last 30) | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme Fear | 0-24 | 0 | Contrarian buy zone. Historically followed by 30-90 day rallies. |
| Fear | 25-44 | 16 | Cautious sentiment. The dominant band for the trailing month. |
| Neutral | 45-54 | 12 | Mixed sentiment. No directional bias. |
| Greed | 55-74 | 2 | Optimistic sentiment. |
| Extreme Greed | 75-100 | 0 | Contrarian sell zone. Historically followed by 30-90 day pullbacks. |
How should I use the Fear and Greed Index?
As a contrarian indicator at extremes, not a trend-following signal in the mid-range. Historically:
- Extreme Fear (below 25) has marked durable buy zones. Bitcoin's December 2022 cycle bottom printed multiple days at Fear and Greed below 10. The March 2020 COVID crash low printed at single digits.
- Extreme Greed (above 75) has marked unsustainable euphoria. Late 2017 and early 2021 cycle tops both printed in the high 80s / 90s.
- Mid-range readings (25-75) have little contrarian information - they reflect normal market conditions and should not drive timing decisions.
The current reading of 31 is in the "Fear" band but not "Extreme Fear" - it suggests caution without the contrarian buy signal that sub-25 readings would provide.
What is the Fear and Greed Index?
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index aggregates several market sentiment signals into a single 0-100 score. The methodology is adapted from the long-running US stock market Fear and Greed Index produced by CNN, with components adjusted for the specifics of crypto markets.
The five active components and their weights (note: the survey component is currently paused):
- Market volatility (25 percent). Compares current Bitcoin volatility against 30-day and 90-day averages. High volatility skews the index toward fear; low volatility toward greed.
- Market momentum and volume (25 percent). Compares current trading volume against 30-day and 90-day averages. High volume during rallies skews toward greed; low volume or selling volume toward fear.
- Social media (15 percent). Analyses Twitter sentiment for crypto-related hashtags. High positive engagement skews toward greed.
- Bitcoin dominance (10 percent). Bitcoin's share of total crypto market cap. Rising dominance (capital flowing to BTC during fear) skews toward fear; falling dominance (capital rotating to altcoins during greed) skews toward greed.
- Google Trends (10 percent). Search volume for crypto-related terms. High search volume during rallies skews toward greed.
The weighted average produces the final 0-100 score. The score is then classified into five bands: 0-24 extreme fear, 25-49 fear, 50-54 neutral, 55-74 greed, 75-100 extreme greed.
How the index is computed
Each component is normalised to a 0-100 scale before weighting. The normalisation typically uses a rolling comparison: today's component value is expressed as a percentile relative to the 30-day or 90-day history. For example, if today's volatility is in the top 5 percent of the recent window (very high), the volatility component scores near 0 (fear). If volatility is in the bottom 5 percent (very low), the component scores near 100 (greed).
The weights are fixed at the proportions listed above and have been published continuously since February 2018 when the index launched.
The output value is rounded to an integer and classified into one of the five bands. The classification thresholds occasionally shift; the current band cutoffs are used by the embed on this page.
Using the index contrarian-style
The classic contrarian framework treats extreme readings as countersignals. The mechanics:
- Extreme fear (under 25): the market is panicking, prices have usually fallen sharply, sentiment is at a multi-month low. Historically a favourable buying regime, though not a precise entry signal (extreme fear can persist for weeks).
- Extreme greed (over 75): the market is euphoric, prices have usually rallied sharply, sentiment is at a multi-month high. Historically a favourable distribution regime for profit-taking.
- Neutral (45-55): the index carries little contrarian signal. Other tools (log regression, risk metric) provide more context.
Empirical backtest: a strategy that bought Bitcoin on each transition into extreme fear and sold on each transition into extreme greed since 2018 would have produced strong absolute returns but with significant whipsaws (multiple round trips per cycle). The framework is most useful as a confirmation signal alongside longer-horizon metrics like the SatoshiMacro Bitcoin Risk Metric and Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression Bands, rather than as a standalone trading system.
Australian-resident context
The index reflects global crypto sentiment, not Australian-specific sentiment. Most of the components (Twitter, Google Trends, volume, volatility) are global aggregates rather than AU-specific subsets. For Australian-resident investors this is usually fine because AU crypto markets closely track global trends.
AU-specific factors not captured by the global index include:
- ASIC regulatory announcements affecting AUSTRAC-registered exchanges
- ATO tax guidance changes affecting CGT treatment
- Australian banking decisions on relationships with crypto exchanges (e.g., debanking events)
- RBA monetary policy effects on AUD/USD that compound with crypto moves
- AU EOFY (30 June) tax-loss harvesting flows that briefly affect crypto prices in late June
For these AU-specific contexts, supplement the global Fear and Greed Index with AU regulatory news monitoring. The index is one input among many.
Related tools
- Bitcoin Risk Metric (AUD) - 0-1 cycle positioning score from log regression. Complements Fear and Greed: the risk metric is multi-year structural, Fear and Greed is short-term sentiment.
- Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD) - the long-run fair-value chart that drives the risk metric.
- Bitcoin Monthly Returns Heatmap (AUD) - historical month-by-month returns.
- Crypto CGT Calculator - apply the ATO 50 percent discount to a specific disposal. Use after Fear-and-Greed-informed exit timing.
Frequently asked questions
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is a 0-100 sentiment indicator that aggregates several market metrics into a single score representing overall investor mood. 0 means extreme fear (the market is panicking, prices are falling), 100 means extreme greed (the market is euphoric, prices are rallying). The index uses a methodology adapted from the equivalent US-stock-market Fear and Greed Index produced by CNN. It has become a widely-referenced sentiment signal in the crypto investor community.
The index is a weighted blend of six components: market volatility (25 percent weight), market momentum and volume (25 percent), social media activity on Twitter for major coins (15 percent), surveys (15 percent, currently paused), Bitcoin dominance (10 percent), and Google Trends search volume for crypto-related terms (10 percent). Each component is normalised to a 0-100 scale and the weighted average produces the final index. The methodology has been published since the index launched in February 2018.
The classic contrarian framework treats extreme fear (under 25) as a potential buying signal and extreme greed (over 75) as a potential selling signal. The logic is that markets are most often wrong at the extremes: when sentiment is panicking, prices have usually overshot to the downside, and vice versa. Warren Buffett's 'be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful' line is the philosophical origin. Empirical backtesting on crypto data shows the contrarian strategy has had positive average returns from buy-at-extreme-fear / sell-at-extreme-greed signals since the index launched in 2018.
As a directional signal, reasonably accurate at extremes. Extreme fear readings under 15 have historically been within a few weeks of major cycle bottoms (March 2020, mid-2022, late 2022). Extreme greed readings over 85 have historically been within a few weeks of major cycle tops (early 2018, late 2021). Mid-range readings (30-70) carry less signal because they represent normal market conditions. The index is more useful as a contrarian risk-on/risk-off filter than as a precise market timing tool.
The index is published daily, typically around 00:00 UTC. The value on this page refreshes on every page load. The SatoshiMacro embed adds the AUD-resident context, contrarian-framework explanation, and integrates with the broader SatoshiMacro analytics suite (Bitcoin log regression, risk metric, monthly returns heatmap).
Yes, with one minor caveat. The underlying sentiment data (Twitter, Google Trends, surveys) is global rather than AU-specific, so the index reflects worldwide crypto sentiment rather than Australian-specific sentiment. For Australian-resident investors this is usually fine because the AU crypto market closely tracks global trends. The AU-specific factors that don't show up in the index include ASIC regulatory announcements, ATO tax guidance changes, and Australian banking decisions on crypto exchange relationships. Use the index for global crypto sentiment context; supplement with AU-specific news for Australian regulatory and tax timing.
The index has touched single-digit values (extreme fear of 5-10) several times in its history. Notable lows include: March 2020 during the COVID crash (low of 8), June 2022 during the Terra/Luna collapse (low of 6), and November 2022 around the FTX collapse (low of 20-25 sustained). Each instance was followed by significant recovery within 3-6 months, though the timing and magnitude varied. The all-time low was around 6 in mid-2022.
The index has touched 95+ extreme greed values during the major Bitcoin bull cycle tops. Notable highs include: early 2018 around the post-2017 cycle peak (95 sustained), early 2021 around the first 2021 cycle top (90+ sustained for weeks), and late 2024 during the post-Halving rally (high 80s). Each instance preceded significant drawdowns within 3-12 months. The all-time high was around 97 in February 2021.
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