Bitcoin Market-Value Z-Score (AUD, price-based MVRV proxy)
An AUD-native price-based proxy of the Glassnode MVRV Z-Score. The true MVRV Z-Score uses on-chain Realised Cap (UTXO-level data, requires a paid Glassnode subscription). This proxy substitutes the 200-week moving average as a price-only realised-value approximation, then computes (price minus 200WMA) divided by the 1400-day rolling standard deviation of price. Output bands match the original metric: above 7 is the cycle-top zone, below 0.1 is the cycle-bottom zone. Auto-updated on every site refresh.
Chart
The gold line is the Z-Score over time. Coloured horizontal bands mark the cycle zones (red = cycle top, green = near realised, deep blue = cycle bottom). Hover any point for the exact daily value and band classification.
MVRV Z-Score proxy historical extremes
| Date | Z-Score proxy | Cycle context |
|---|---|---|
| 1 March 2021 | 4.49 (all-time high) | 2021 first cycle peak. The proxy never reached the true MVRV's 7+ readings. |
| 1 December 2022 | -0.38 (all-time low) | FTX-collapse cycle bottom. Negative readings indicate price below the 200-week MA - generationally rare. |
What is the current MVRV Z-Score proxy reading?
The current reading is 2.02. That places Bitcoin in the "mid-range" band on the proxy (1 to 4), typical of mid-cycle BTC-led phases. Historical cycle tops on this proxy printed above 4 (March 2021 hit 4.49). Historical cycle bottoms printed below 0.1 (December 2022 hit -0.38). The current reading at 2.02 suggests Bitcoin is meaningfully above its 200-week MA in standard-deviation terms but well below the proxy's historical cycle-top zone.
How does the proxy compare to the true MVRV Z-Score?
The true MVRV Z-Score uses Bitcoin's on-chain realised value (sum of every UTXO's last-moved price) as the divisor. The on-chain data is paid (Glassnode, CoinMetrics, CryptoQuant). This proxy substitutes the 200-week moving average price for realised value, which is a close-enough approximation for cycle-positioning purposes but produces lower absolute readings than the true MVRV.
Practical implication: the proxy's "top zone" threshold should be read as above 4 (not the true MVRV's 7+). The bottom-zone threshold (below 0.1) is approximately consistent between the proxy and the true on-chain version. The proxy correctly identifies the same cycle inflection points as the true MVRV but with compressed absolute readings.
What is the MVRV Z-Score?
The MVRV Z-Score was introduced by Murad Mahmudov and David Puell in 2018 as an institutional-grade cycle indicator. The formula:
Z-Score = (Market Cap - Realised Cap) / StdDev(Market Cap)
Where:
- Market Cap = current price × circulating supply. The standard market capitalisation.
- Realised Cap = sum across all Bitcoin UTXOs of (UTXO value × price when the UTXO last moved on-chain). An aggregate cost basis for all holders, derived from UTXO-level on-chain data.
- StdDev(Market Cap) = rolling standard deviation of market cap over a long window.
The Z-Score answers: how stretched is current Market Cap above the aggregate cost basis, expressed in standard deviations? Values above 7 historically mark cycle tops (the market is severely overvalued relative to where holders bought). Values below 0.1 mark cycle bottoms (the market is at or below aggregate cost basis).
Proxy vs true MVRV Z-Score
The true MVRV Z-Score requires Realised Cap, which can only be computed from UTXO-level on-chain data. Glassnode, CoinMetrics, and a small number of other providers publish this metric; all require paid subscriptions.
This SatoshiMacro chart substitutes the 200-week simple moving average of price as a long-run realised-value approximation. The 200WMA is widely used in cycle analysis as a proxy for aggregate cost basis: most Bitcoin in circulation was acquired within the last 200 weeks at prices that average to roughly the 200WMA. The substitution is reasonable but inexact.
How the proxy compares to the true metric:
- Same broad cycle signal. Both peak near cycle tops and trough near cycle bottoms.
- High correlation. Typically within a Z-Score of 1 to 2 across most of the cycle.
- Larger divergence at extremes. The 200WMA changes more slowly than on-chain Realised Cap, so the proxy can lag the true metric near the extreme top and bottom zones.
- Threshold values approximately match. The 7 cycle-top and 0.1 cycle-bottom thresholds work on the proxy but the proxy may register slightly different values at the extremes.
For directional cycle assessment the proxy is adequate. For institutional analysis requiring on-chain precision, use the Glassnode-sourced version.
How to read the chart
Five horizontal bands and one gold line:
- Red band (Z >= 7). Cycle-top zone. The true MVRV Z-Score has reached this zone near every Bitcoin cycle top. Historically rare.
- Orange band (4 to 7). Overheated. Bitcoin meaningfully above its realised-value proxy.
- Yellow band (1.5 to 4). Above realised. Mid-to-late-cycle territory.
- Green band (0.1 to 1.5). Near realised value. Historical mid-cycle range.
- Deep blue band (Z < 0.1). Cycle-bottom zone. The true MVRV Z-Score has reached this zone near every Bitcoin cycle bottom.
The gold line is the Z-Score itself. Where it sits relative to the bands tells you the current cycle position. The white circle marks the most recent value.
Where the model breaks down
- Proxy approximation. The 200WMA is a price-based substitute for on-chain Realised Cap. Exact threshold values differ from the true metric, especially near extremes.
- Small historical sample. Bitcoin has only had three documented cycle tops and three cycle bottoms with reliable on-chain data. The threshold calibration is fitted to those samples.
- Cycle smoothing risk. If institutional adoption flattens future cycle volatility, the Z-Score may not reach the historical extreme zones.
- Standard deviation window. The proxy uses a 1400-day rolling standard deviation. Different windows produce different Z-Scores. The window choice matches the 200-week (1400-day) moving average for consistency.
- One indicator among many. Best used alongside Log Regression, Mayer Multiple, Pi Cycle, and 200WMA Heatmap. No single indicator captures all cycle structure.
Methodology
- Data source. Bitcoin AUD daily close prices from a public market-data endpoint, refreshed on every site build.
- 200-week MA (1400-day SMA). Realised-value proxy. First value appears at day 1400.
- 1400-day rolling standard deviation of price. Long-window volatility normaliser. First value appears at day 1400.
- Z-Score. (Price minus 200WMA) divided by the rolling standard deviation. First value appears at day 1400.
- Band classification. Each daily Z-Score is mapped to one of five bands per the threshold values.
- Resilience. If the upstream source is unreachable during a build, the previous static data file is preserved unchanged.
Related tools
- Bitcoin 200-Week MA Heatmap (AUD) - the realised-value proxy underlying this Z-Score, visualised directly with cycle-phase colour grading.
- Bitcoin Rainbow Chart (AUD) - sentiment-labelled log regression. Visually compatible with Z-Score cycle bands.
- Bitcoin Dominance Chart - rotation context. Z-Score peaks have historically coincided with dominance peaks.
- Altcoin Season Index - flow companion to dominance for the BTC-vs-alts rotation read.
- Bitcoin Mayer Multiple (AUD) - simpler price / 200-day MA ratio. Shares the same "long-run trend reference" intuition.
- Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Indicator (AUD) - faster top-zone signal. Use for confirmation when MVRV Z-Score approaches 7.
- Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD) - alternative long-run valuation reference.
- Bitcoin Risk Metric (AUD) - 0 to 1 cycle score. Compatible scale with this Z-Score.
- Crypto Exit Strategy Ladder - build a Z-Score-anchored ladder (e.g., sell 10% at Z = 5, 20% at Z = 6, 30% at Z = 7).
Frequently asked questions
MVRV Z-Score is a Bitcoin cycle indicator developed by Murad Mahmudov and David Puell in 2018. The canonical formula is (Market Cap minus Realised Cap) divided by the standard deviation of Market Cap. Market Cap is current price times circulating supply. Realised Cap is the sum of every Bitcoin UTXO valued at the price when it last moved on-chain (a long-run aggregate cost basis for all holders). The metric captures how much higher the current market value is than the implied aggregate cost basis, normalised by historical volatility. Above 7 has historically marked cycle tops; below 0.1 has marked cycle bottoms.
The real MVRV Z-Score requires Realised Cap, which can only be computed from UTXO-level on-chain data. This data is available from Glassnode, CoinMetrics, and a few other providers via paid subscriptions, but not from any free public API. This SatoshiMacro version substitutes the 200-week moving average of price as a long-run 'realised-value' approximation. The 200WMA is widely used in cycle analysis as a proxy for long-run aggregate cost basis. The substitution is reasonable but inexact; threshold band values broadly track the true metric but do not match it precisely.
The two are highly correlated but not identical. Both produce the same broad cycle signal (peaks at cycle tops, troughs at cycle bottoms). The proxy is less precise at the extreme values because the 200WMA changes more slowly than the on-chain Realised Cap (which incorporates every UTXO movement). In practice the proxy tracks the true metric to within a Z-Score of 1 to 2 across most of the cycle, with larger divergence near the extreme top and bottom zones. For directional cycle assessment the proxy is adequate; for precise institutional analysis use the Glassnode-sourced version.
Five bands: above 7 is the cycle-top zone (every Bitcoin cycle top has occurred here on the true Glassnode metric); 4 to 7 is overheated; 1.5 to 4 is above realised value; 0.1 to 1.5 is near realised value (the historical mid-cycle range); below 0.1 is the cycle-bottom zone. The thresholds come from the canonical metric and are surfaced on the chart as dashed horizontal reference lines.
Z-Score itself is currency-agnostic (it normalises by standard deviation, so the unit cancels out), but having the underlying price in AUD lets you cross-read with the rest of the AUD-native cycle indicator suite (Log Regression, Mayer Multiple, 200-Week MA Heatmap, Pi Cycle). Inputs from the same price feed produce consistent values across tools.
Not as a standalone rule. The true MVRV Z-Score has crossed above 7 near every Bitcoin cycle top, but identifying the precise top in real time is much harder than identifying it in hindsight. Bitcoin has historically stayed above Z = 7 for weeks before drawing down. A more conservative approach: use the cross above 7 as one trigger in a laddered exit strategy. The Crypto Exit Strategy Ladder tool is designed for this. For tax planning around a partial disposal, use the Crypto CGT Calculator.
Yes, across the three documented Bitcoin cycle bottoms (early 2015, late 2018, second half of 2022). The proxy may produce slightly different exact values from the true metric at these extremes due to the 200WMA's smoother profile, but the broad signal (proxy enters the lowest band during cycle bottoms) holds across all three samples.
Bitcoin AUD daily close prices, refreshed on every site build from a public market-data endpoint. The 200WMA and 1400-day rolling standard deviation are computed client-side. If the upstream source is unreachable during a build, the previous data set is preserved unchanged so the chart continues to render with the last-known-good data.
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