Bitcoin Market-Value Z-Score (AUD, price-based MVRV proxy)
The MVRV Z-Score is one of 9 valuation signals in Tier 1 of the SatoshiMacro Model, a free 48-signal Bitcoin cycle confluence indicator. This chart is an AUD-native price-based proxy of the Glassnode MVRV Z-Score. The true MVRV Z-Score uses on-chain Realised Cap (UTXO-level data, requires a paid Glassnode subscription). This proxy substitutes the 200-week moving average as a price-only realised-value approximation, then computes (price minus 200WMA) divided by the 1400-day rolling standard deviation of price. The on-chain thresholds (7 and 0.1) do not transfer to a price proxy, so the zones here are percentile bands of the proxy's own AUD history: the cycle-top zone (4.96 and above) is the highest 5 percent of readings since 31 October 2016, and the cycle-bottom zone (below 0.08) is the lowest 10 percent. The proxy reads 0.4 as of 8 October 2026. Data refreshed daily.
Chart
The gold line is the Z-Score over time. Coloured horizontal bands mark the cycle zones (red = cycle top, green = near realised, deep blue = cycle bottom). Hover any point for the exact daily value and band classification.
MVRV Z-Score proxy historical extremes
| Date | Z-Score proxy | Cycle context |
|---|---|---|
| 7 December 2017 | 9.29 (all-time high) | Highest reading on the proxy series. The true on-chain MVRV typically peaks higher than the proxy due to the smoother 200-week MA realised-value substitute. |
| 21 November 2022 | -0.41 (all-time low) | Lowest reading on the proxy series. Negative readings indicate price below the 200-week MA - historically rare and generally associated with deep cycle bottoms. |
What is the current MVRV Z-Score proxy reading?
The current reading is 0.4, in the near realised value band (0.08 to 1.01). The historical all-time high on this proxy is 9.29 (7 December 2017) and the all-time low is -0.41 (21 November 2022). Bear in mind that indicator peaks often precede the absolute price peak: the MVRV Z-Score measures distance above a slow-moving baseline, so it can read lower at higher absolute prices when the underlying 200-week MA has had time to catch up. Cross-reference with the Pi Cycle Top Indicator for confirmation.
How does the proxy compare to the true MVRV Z-Score?
The true MVRV Z-Score uses Bitcoin's on-chain realised value (sum of every UTXO's last-moved price) as the baseline. The on-chain data is paid (Glassnode, CoinMetrics, CryptoQuant). This proxy substitutes the 200-week moving average price for realised value, which is a workable approximation for cycle positioning but will not match the on-chain readings day to day.
Practical implication: the proxy runs on its own scale. Its all-time high is 9.29 (7 December 2017), the 2021 cycle topped out at 6.69 and the 2024-2025 cycle at 3.82, so the on-chain 7 line says little here. That is why the zones on this page are percentile bands of the proxy's own history: the cycle-top zone starts at 4.96 and the cycle-bottom zone sits below 0.08.
What is the MVRV Z-Score?
The MVRV Z-Score was introduced by Murad Mahmudov and David Puell in 2018 as an institutional-grade cycle indicator. The formula:
Z-Score = (Market Cap - Realised Cap) / StdDev(Market Cap)
Where:
- Market Cap = current price × circulating supply. The standard market capitalisation.
- Realised Cap = sum across all Bitcoin UTXOs of (UTXO value × price when the UTXO last moved on-chain). An aggregate cost basis for all holders, derived from UTXO-level on-chain data.
- StdDev(Market Cap) = rolling standard deviation of market cap over a long window.
The Z-Score answers: how stretched is current Market Cap above the aggregate cost basis, expressed in standard deviations? On the on-chain metric, values above 7 have historically marked cycle tops (the market is severely overvalued relative to where holders bought) and values below 0.1 cycle bottoms (the market is at or below aggregate cost basis). Those lines belong to the on-chain version, not to the proxy charted here.
Proxy vs true MVRV Z-Score
The true MVRV Z-Score requires Realised Cap, which can only be computed from UTXO-level on-chain data. Glassnode, CoinMetrics, and a small number of other providers publish this metric; all require paid subscriptions.
This SatoshiMacro chart substitutes the 200-week simple moving average of price as a long-run realised-value approximation. The 200WMA is widely used in cycle analysis as a proxy for aggregate cost basis: most Bitcoin in circulation was acquired within the last 200 weeks at prices that average to roughly the 200WMA. The substitution is reasonable but inexact.
How the proxy compares to the true metric:
- Same broad cycle signal. Both peak near cycle tops and trough near cycle bottoms.
- Similar shape. Both rise into cycle tops and fall into bear-market lows.
- Larger divergence at extremes. The 200WMA changes more slowly than on-chain Realised Cap, so the proxy can lag the true metric near the extreme top and bottom zones.
- Zones are fitted to the proxy, not borrowed. The on-chain 7 and 0.1 lines do not transfer to a price proxy with its own scale, so the zones here are percentile bands of the proxy's own AUD history (4.96 and above for the top zone, below 0.08 for the bottom zone).
For directional cycle assessment the proxy is adequate. For institutional analysis requiring on-chain precision, use the Glassnode-sourced version.
How to read the chart
Five horizontal bands and one gold line. The bands are percentile bands of the proxy's own AUD history since 31 October 2016 (3,630 daily readings), recomputed on every data refresh:
- Red band (Z 4.96 and above). Cycle-top zone: the highest 5 percent of readings (183 days so far).
- Orange band (2.65 to 4.96). Overheated: 80th to 95th percentile. Bitcoin meaningfully above its realised-value proxy.
- Yellow band (1.01 to 2.65). Above realised: 35th to 80th percentile. Mid-to-late-cycle territory.
- Green band (0.08 to 1.01). Near realised value: 10th to 35th percentile.
- Deep blue band (below 0.08). Cycle-bottom zone: the lowest 10 percent of readings, reached in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023, 2026.
The gold line is the Z-Score itself. Where it sits relative to the bands tells you the current cycle position. The white circle marks the most recent value. The table below shows how the documented cycle tops and bottoms classify under these zones.
| Cycle turn | Date | Z-Score proxy | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 cycle top | December 2013 | Not covered | Before this indicator's history starts |
| 2017 cycle top | December 2017 | 9.29 (7 December 2017) | Cycle-top zone |
| 2021 first peak | April 2021 | 5.34 (17 March 2021) | Cycle-top zone |
| 2021 second peak (cycle top) | November 2021 | 3.20 (20 October 2021) | Overheated |
| 2015 cycle bottom | January 2015 | Not covered | Before this indicator's history starts |
| 2018 cycle bottom | December 2018 | 0.05 (15 December 2018) | Cycle-bottom zone |
| 2022 cycle bottom | November 2022 | -0.41 (21 November 2022) | Cycle-bottom zone |
Where the model breaks down
- Proxy approximation. The 200WMA is a price-based substitute for on-chain Realised Cap. Exact threshold values differ from the true metric, especially near extremes.
- Small historical sample. On AUD data the proxy covers only the cycles since late 2016: two tops and three bear-market lows. The percentile zones are fitted to that short history, so the cut-offs will shift a little as new data arrives.
- Cycle smoothing risk. If institutional adoption flattens future cycle volatility, the Z-Score may not reach the historical extreme zones.
- Standard deviation window. The proxy uses a 1400-day rolling standard deviation. Different windows produce different Z-Scores. The window choice matches the 200-week (1400-day) moving average for consistency.
- One indicator among many. Best used alongside Log Regression, Mayer Multiple, Pi Cycle, and 200WMA Heatmap. No single indicator captures all cycle structure.
Methodology
- Data source. Daily BTC/AUD closes from January 2013: Bitstamp BTC/USD converted at the daily AUD/USD rate, with Kraken's native BTC/AUD market for the last two years. Refreshed automatically every day. The first Z-Score falls on 31 October 2016.
- 200-week MA (1400-day SMA). Realised-value proxy. First value appears at day 1400.
- 1400-day rolling standard deviation of price. Long-window volatility normaliser. First value appears at day 1400.
- Z-Score. (Price minus 200WMA) divided by the rolling standard deviation. First value appears at day 1400.
- Band classification. Each daily Z-Score is mapped to one of five percentile bands of the full proxy history, using the 95th, 80th, 35th and 10th percentiles as cut-offs (currently 4.96, 2.65, 1.01 and 0.08). The cut-offs are recomputed on every data refresh and shared with the dashboard, embed widget and preview card.
- Resilience. If a price source is unreachable, the previous data file is kept unchanged.
Related tools
- Bitcoin 200-Week MA Heatmap (AUD) - the realised-value proxy underlying this Z-Score, visualised directly with cycle-phase colour grading.
- Bitcoin Rainbow Chart (AUD) - sentiment-labelled log regression. Visually compatible with Z-Score cycle bands.
- Bitcoin Dominance Chart - rotation context. Z-Score peaks have historically coincided with dominance peaks.
- Altcoin Season Index - flow companion to dominance for the BTC-vs-alts rotation read.
- Bitcoin Mayer Multiple (AUD) - simpler price / 200-day MA ratio. Shares the same "long-run trend reference" intuition.
- Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Indicator (AUD) - faster top-zone signal. Use for confirmation when the MVRV Z-Score proxy approaches its top zone.
- Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD) - alternative long-run valuation reference.
- Bitcoin Risk Metric (AUD) - 0 to 1 cycle score. Compatible scale with this Z-Score.
- Crypto Exit Strategy Ladder - build a Z-Score-anchored ladder (for example, scale out in steps as the proxy moves through the overheated band into the top zone).
Frequently asked questions
MVRV Z-Score is a Bitcoin cycle indicator developed by Murad Mahmudov and David Puell in 2018. The canonical formula is (Market Cap minus Realised Cap) divided by the standard deviation of Market Cap. Market Cap is current price times circulating supply. Realised Cap is the sum of every Bitcoin UTXO valued at the price when it last moved on-chain (a long-run aggregate cost basis for all holders). The metric captures how much higher the current market value is than the implied aggregate cost basis, normalised by historical volatility. On the on-chain version, readings above 7 have been read as cycle-top territory and below 0.1 as cycle-bottom territory. Those lines do not transfer to the price-based proxy on this page, which uses percentile zones instead.
The real MVRV Z-Score requires Realised Cap, which can only be computed from UTXO-level on-chain data. This data is available from Glassnode, CoinMetrics, and a few other providers via paid subscriptions, but not from any free public API. This SatoshiMacro version substitutes the 200-week moving average of price as a long-run 'realised-value' approximation. The 200WMA is widely used in cycle analysis as a proxy for long-run aggregate cost basis. The substitution is reasonable but inexact, and the proxy runs on a different scale, so the zones on this page are fitted to the proxy's own history rather than borrowed from the on-chain metric.
The two are highly correlated but not identical. Both produce the same broad cycle signal (peaks at cycle tops, troughs at cycle bottoms). The proxy is less precise at the extreme values because the 200WMA changes more slowly than the on-chain Realised Cap (which incorporates every UTXO movement). Expect the largest divergence near the extreme top and bottom zones. For directional cycle assessment the proxy is adequate; for precise institutional analysis use the Glassnode-sourced version.
Five percentile bands of the proxy's own AUD history since 31 October 2016: the cycle-top zone is 4.96 and above (the highest 5 percent of readings); overheated is 2.65 to 4.96 (80th to 95th percentile); above realised value is 1.01 to 2.65 (35th to 80th); near realised value is 0.08 to 1.01 (10th to 35th); the cycle-bottom zone is below 0.08 (the lowest 10 percent). The cut-offs are recomputed from the full history on every data refresh and drawn on the chart as dashed reference lines.
Z-Score itself is currency-agnostic (it normalises by standard deviation, so the unit cancels out), but having the underlying price in AUD lets you cross-read with the rest of the AUD-native cycle indicator suite (Log Regression, Mayer Multiple, 200-Week MA Heatmap, Pi Cycle). Inputs from the same price feed produce consistent values across tools.
Not as a standalone rule. On this proxy the cycle-top zone (4.96 and above) was reached in May 2017, June 2017, August 2017, September 2017, October 2017, November 2017, December 2017, January 2018, January 2021, February 2021, March 2021, so it can hold there for months before the final price peak, and identifying the precise top in real time is much harder than in hindsight. A more conservative approach: use moves into the overheated band and then the top zone as triggers in a laddered exit strategy. The Crypto Exit Strategy Ladder tool is designed for this. For tax planning around a partial disposal, use the Crypto CGT Calculator.
Yes. The proxy needs 1,400 days of history, so on the AUD data it starts on 31 October 2016 and cannot show the 2015 bottom. Since then it has closed in the cycle-bottom zone (below 0.08) in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023, 2026. At the documented cycle lows it read: 2018 cycle bottom 0.05 (Cycle-bottom zone); 2022 cycle bottom -0.41 (Cycle-bottom zone). The all-time low reading is -0.41 on 21 November 2022.
Daily BTC/AUD closes from January 2013: Bitstamp BTC/USD converted at the daily AUD/USD rate, with Kraken's native BTC/AUD market for the last two years. Refreshed automatically every day. The 200WMA and 1400-day rolling standard deviation are computed client-side, so the first Z-Score falls on 31 October 2016. If a price source is unreachable, the previous data file is kept so the chart continues to render with the last good data.
The zones on this proxy are percentile bands of its own history, so the useful test is how the documented cycle turns classify. At the tops it read: 2017 cycle top 9.29 (Cycle-top zone); 2021 first peak 5.34 (Cycle-top zone); 2021 second peak (cycle top) 3.20 (Overheated). At the lows it read: 2018 cycle bottom 0.05 (Cycle-bottom zone); 2022 cycle bottom -0.41 (Cycle-bottom zone). The proxy starts on 31 October 2016, so the 2013 cycle top and 2015 cycle bottom fall before its history. The peak reading has fallen each cycle (9.29 on 7 December 2017, 6.69 in January 2021, 3.82 in December 2024). We do not reproduce the on-chain version here, so treat both as one input in a confluence framework, not standalone triggers.
Not every time. On the proxy charted here the documented tops read: 2017 cycle top 9.29 (Cycle-top zone); 2021 first peak 5.34 (Cycle-top zone); 2021 second peak (cycle top) 3.20 (Overheated). The 2024-2025 cycle peaked at 3.82 (December 2024), below the cycle-top zone (4.96 and above). The peak reading has fallen each cycle as the 200-week average has caught up with price faster. The SatoshiMacro Model combines MVRV Z-Score with 47 other signals so the picture sharpens at the inflection rather than relying on a single threshold cross.
MVRV Z-Score sits in Tier 1 (Valuation & Cycle Position) of the SatoshiMacro Model at 25 per cent of total composite weight, alongside 8 other valuation signals (Pi Cycle Top, Mayer Multiple, 2-Year MA Multiplier, 200-Week MA distance, Power Law deviation, Golden Ratio Multiplier, Rainbow Chart position, Bitcoin Risk Metric). SMM currently uses the 4-year MA price proxy for this signal (labelled 'MVRV Z-Score (4Y MA proxy)' in the model), because no free on-chain realised-cap feed has proved reliable. The raw Z-Score is normalised to its expanding-window historical percentile rank, then contributes to the tier-averaged score that drives 25 per cent of the final 0-100 SMM composite.
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