Bitcoin Mayer Multiple (AUD)
The Mayer Multiple is one of 9 valuation signals in Tier 1 of the SatoshiMacro Model, a free 48-signal Bitcoin cycle confluence indicator. The metric is Bitcoin price divided by its 200-day moving average. Coined by Trace Mayer in 2014, it is one of the longest-running Bitcoin cycle-positioning indicators. Above 2.4 is the traditional cycle-top zone and below 0.6 the cycle-bottom zone. In the AUD data the 2013 and 2017 tops cleared 2.4 but the 2021 and 2025 highs did not, while the 2015, 2018 and mid-2022 lows went below 0.6. It reads 1.16 as of 8 October 2026. AUD-native chart with the current band and historical time-in-zone shown inline.
Chart
The gold line is Bitcoin's price divided by its 200-day moving average. Coloured horizontal bands mark the cycle zones (red = overvalued, green = undervalued). Hover any point on the chart for the exact daily value and band classification.
Mayer Multiple historical extremes
The Mayer Multiple's all-time high and all-time low sit at the 2013 top and the 2015 bottom, the first cycle in the data. Most days fall between 0.6 and 1.5 (44.7% between 1.0 and 1.5 and 38.4% between 0.6 and 1.0), with extreme readings in the months around cycle tops (above 2.0) and bear-market lows (below 0.6).
| Date | Mayer Multiple | Cycle context |
|---|---|---|
| 29 November 2013 | 6.64 (all-time high) | Peak of the 2013 bubble, when price ran far ahead of its 200-day average. |
| 14 January 2015 | 0.43 (all-time low) | Bottom of the post-Mt-Gox bear market. The deepest undervaluation on record. |
What is Bitcoin's current Mayer Multiple?
Bitcoin's current Mayer Multiple is 1.16 as of 8 October 2026, which is the near fair value band (1.0 to 1.5). It is higher than 60 percent of all daily readings since 19 July 2013. For context, the 2017 cycle top read 3.74, the 2021 tops 1.97 and 1.50, and the August 2025 all-time high 1.20. The cycle lows read 0.43 (2015), 0.51 (2018), 0.49 (June 2022) and 0.58 (5 February 2026).
How rare are extreme Mayer readings?
Across 4,830 days of Mayer readings since 19 July 2013, extreme readings are rare:
- Mayer at or above 2.4 (cycle-top zone): 123 days, 2.5 percent of the sample. They fall in late 2013 and early 2014, late 2017, a few days in 2018 and 2019, and January-February 2021.
- Mayer at or above 1.5 (overheated): 755 days, 15.6 percent, mostly in bull-market years.
- Mayer in 0.8 to 1.5 (normal): 3,317 days, 68.7 percent. The dominant historical state.
- Mayer below 0.8 (below trend): 758 days, 15.7 percent, mostly in bear markets and early recoveries.
- Mayer below 0.6 (cycle-bottom zone): 58 days, 1.2 percent. Concentrated in January 2015, November-December 2018 and June-July 2022, with single days in March 2020 and February 2026.
The top zone has been visited on more days than the bottom zone, almost all of them in the first two cycles. Since 2021 the Multiple has not reached 2.4 at all, which is the clearest sign that the classic thresholds were set on a more volatile early market.
What is the Mayer Multiple?
The Mayer Multiple has a simple definition:
Mayer Multiple = current price / 200-day simple moving average
If Bitcoin trades at A$200,000 and its 200-day SMA is A$100,000, the Mayer Multiple is 2.0. If it trades at A$60,000 with a 200-day SMA of A$100,000, the Multiple is 0.6.
The framework was popularised by Trace Mayer, an early Bitcoin investor and podcast host, around 2014. It built on the 200-day moving average's long established role in traditional technical analysis: equities, commodities, and forex traders have used the 200DMA as a long-run trend reference for decades. Mayer's contribution was to normalise the price-to-200DMA relationship into a single ratio and define threshold bands from observation of Bitcoin's cycles.
Why the framework persists despite its simplicity: it captures roughly half a Bitcoin halving cycle (4-year cycles, 200-day window is approximately half a year, so the multiple oscillates meaningfully across each cycle) and the threshold bands have held up empirically across four cycles.
How to read the chart
Five horizontal coloured bands and one gold line:
- Red band (Mayer >= 2.4). Very overvalued. Historical cycle-top zone, reached at the 2013 and 2017 tops. About 2.5 percent of historical days have been in this zone.
- Orange band (1.5 to 2.4). Above fair value. Upper-third of the historical cycle range. Not yet in the rare overvalued zone.
- Gold band (1.0 to 1.5). Near fair value, upper half. Bitcoin trades 0 to 50 percent above its 200-day average. The historical centre of the cycle range.
- Green band (0.6 to 1.0). Below fair value. Lower-third of the historical cycle range. Bitcoin trades 0 to 40 percent below its 200-day average.
- Dark green band (Mayer < 0.6). Very undervalued. Historical cycle-bottom zone, reached in the 2015, 2018 and mid-2022 bear markets. About 1.2 percent of historical days have been in this zone.
The gold line is the Mayer Multiple itself. Where it sits relative to the bands tells you the current cycle position. The white circle marks the most recent value. The "time spent in each band" table directly below the stat strip shows how rare each zone is historically.
Historical cycle zones
The threshold bands were set from Bitcoin's early cycles. Here is how each top and bottom in the AUD data actually read:
| Event | Date | Mayer Multiple | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 cycle top | 29 November 2013 | 6.64 | Very overvalued (>= 2.4) |
| 2014 secondary peak | 6 January 2014 | 3.06 | Very overvalued (>= 2.4) |
| 2015 cycle bottom | 14 January 2015 | 0.43 | Very undervalued (< 0.6) |
| 2017 cycle top | 16 December 2017 | 3.74 | Very overvalued (>= 2.4) |
| 2018 capitulation | 15 December 2018 | 0.51 | Very undervalued (< 0.6) |
| 2021 cycle top (April) | 13 April 2021 | 1.97 | Above fair value (1.5-2.4) |
| 2021 secondary peak (Nov) | 8 November 2021 | 1.50 | Above fair value (1.5-2.4) |
| 2022 Luna/3AC low | 18 June 2022 | 0.49 | Very undervalued (< 0.6) |
| 2022 FTX-era bottom | 21 November 2022 | 0.72 | Below fair value (0.6-1.0) |
| 2025 all-time high | 13 August 2025 | 1.20 | Near fair value (1.0-1.5) |
The table shows the thresholds working cleanly for the first two cycles and then drifting. Neither 2021 top reached 2.4, and the 2025 all-time high was barely above the 200-day average. At the bottom, the November 2022 price low read 0.72 because the 200-day average had fallen for months beforehand; the sub-0.6 reading came five months earlier in June. The 200-day MA chases the price, so a slow grind to a new high or low registers far less than a sharp spike.
Where the model breaks down
- Curve-fitted to past cycles. The 2.4 and 0.6 thresholds were chosen after observing historical extremes. They are not theoretically derived. The framework could fail to fire at a future cycle top or fire without a top following.
- Double tops are typically missed. The November 2021 peak read 1.50 against 1.97 in April, even though November was the higher price. If future cycles have double-top structure, the second peak may not register.
- Cycle smoothing risk. If institutional adoption flattens future cycle volatility (lower amplitude swings, more sideways structure), Mayer Multiple oscillation narrows and the extreme zones become harder to reach.
- Lagging in fast moves. The 200-day SMA lags fast price moves by roughly half its window. In sharp parabolic advances, the Multiple spikes faster than the underlying signal warrants. In sharp drawdowns, it falls before the bottom is established.
- One indicator among many. Mayer Multiple is best used alongside other cycle frameworks (Log Regression, Pi Cycle, Risk Metric, Halving Cycle Overlay). No single indicator captures all the cycle structure.
Methodology
- Data source. Daily BTC/AUD closes from January 2013: Bitstamp BTC/USD converted at the daily AUD/USD rate, with Kraken's native BTC/AUD market for the last two years. Refreshed automatically every day. The first Mayer reading falls on 19 July 2013.
- 200-day SMA. Trailing 200-day simple moving average of the daily close. First value appears at day 200.
- Mayer Multiple. Daily close divided by the 200-day SMA. Computed for every day from day 200 onwards.
- Band classification. Each daily Multiple is classified into one of the five bands (very overvalued / above fair / near fair / below fair / very undervalued).
- Time-in-zone statistics. Counts of days in each band across the full available history, surfaced in the table directly under the chart.
- Resilience. If a price source is unreachable, the previous data file is kept unchanged.
Related tools
- Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Indicator (AUD) - 111DMA vs 350DMA × 2 crossover. Faster top-zone signal; pair with Mayer for confirmation.
- Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD) - long-run fair value with ±1σ / ±2σ bands. Different statistical model, similar conclusions about overvalued / undervalued zones.
- Bitcoin Rainbow Chart (AUD) - sentiment-labelled log regression. Mayer >2.4 typically aligns with the upper rainbow bands.
- Bitcoin Dominance Chart - rotation context. Mayer top-zone signals are often confirmed by dominance peaks within the same window.
- Altcoin Season Index - rotation flow companion. A Mayer top-zone signal alongside a rising Altseason index is a classic late-cycle pattern.
- Bitcoin Risk Metric (AUD) - 0 to 1 cycle score from the log regression deviation. Cross-reference Mayer band with Risk Metric zone.
- Bitcoin Halving Countdown + Cycle Overlay - cycle-time context. Mayer Multiple has historically peaked 12 to 18 months after each halving.
- Crypto Exit Strategy Ladder - build a Mayer-anchored ladder (e.g., sell 10% at Mayer 1.8, 20% at 2.1, 30% at 2.4, etc).
- Crypto CGT Calculator - apply the ATO 50 percent discount to a Mayer-triggered disposal.
Frequently asked questions
The Mayer Multiple is Bitcoin's current price divided by its 200-day simple moving average. A value of 1.0 means Bitcoin trades exactly at its 200-day average; 2.0 means it trades at twice the average; 0.5 means half. The framework was popularised by Trace Mayer (Bitcoin investor and educator) in 2014 and has remained a long-running reference for cycle positioning. Threshold bands at 2.4 (cycle-top zone) and 0.6 (cycle-bottom zone) come from observation of historical cycles.
The 200-day moving average is a long-established institutional reference point used in equities and commodities (the '200-day' is one of the most-watched technical lines in traditional finance). Trace Mayer carried it into Bitcoin analysis because it captures roughly half a Bitcoin cycle (cycles run roughly 4 years, halving-to-halving) and smooths the high-frequency noise enough to reveal cycle structure without being so slow that it lags the cycle entirely. Alternative windows (100, 150, 365) have been studied; 200 remains the canonical choice.
Five bands, derived from observation of early Bitcoin cycles. Above 2.4 is the cycle-top zone (the 2013 and 2017 tops reached it; the 2021 and 2025 highs did not). 1.5 to 2.4 is above fair value. 1.0 to 1.5 is near fair value (the upper half of the historical range). 0.6 to 1.0 is below fair value. Below 0.6 is the cycle-bottom zone (the 2015 and 2018 bottoms and the June 2022 low reached it; the November 2022 low only got to 0.72). The 'time spent in each band' table below the chart shows the historical distribution. In the AUD data the two extreme zones together account for about 2.5 and 1.2 percent of days, under 4 percent combined, and only the 2013 and 2017 tops actually reached 2.4.
Only partly. In the AUD data the November 2013 top read 6.64 (the highest reading on record) and the January 2014 secondary peak 3.06. The December 2017 top read 3.74. The 2021 cycle did not reach 2.4 at either top: 1.97 at the 13 April high and 1.50 at the 8 November high, although it hit 2.66 during the January 2021 rally. The 2024-2025 cycle peaked at 1.83 in March 2024 and was only 1.20 at the August 2025 all-time high. Each cycle has peaked at a lower Mayer reading than the last, so 2.4 has become a less reliable top marker.
Better than at tops, but not perfect. The January 2015 bottom reached 0.43 (the lowest reading on record), December 2018 reached 0.51, the March 2020 COVID crash touched 0.59, and the June 2022 Luna/3AC sell-off reached 0.49. The November 2022 FTX low, the actual price bottom of that cycle, only reached 0.72 because the 200-day average had already fallen a long way. The latest decline touched 0.58 on 5 February 2026. Readings below 0.6 are rare: 58 days, or 1.2 percent of the sample.
Not as a standalone rule. Mayer is a cycle-positioning indicator, not a precise sell signal. Historically Bitcoin has stayed above 2.4 for several weeks before drawing down. A more conservative approach is to use the level as one trigger in a laddered exit strategy: sell a fraction on the first cross above 2.4, another fraction on a further +20 percent move, etc. The Crypto Exit Strategy Ladder tool is designed for this exact use case. For tax planning around a partial disposal, use the Crypto CGT Calculator.
The Mayer Multiple is currency-agnostic in principle (the ratio is the same regardless of price currency, because both numerator and denominator are in the same units). But for an Australian-resident investor evaluating their own portfolio, having the chart in AUD is the right reference because it lets you cross-read with the Bitcoin Log Regression Bands (AUD), Bitcoin Risk Metric (AUD), and DCA Backtest (AUD) tools that share the same underlying AUD price feed.
Daily BTC/AUD closes from January 2013: Bitstamp BTC/USD converted at the daily AUD/USD rate, with Kraken's native BTC/AUD market for the last two years. Refreshed automatically every day. The 200-day SMA is recomputed client-side on every page load, so the first Mayer reading falls on 19 July 2013. If a price source is unreachable, the previous data file is kept and the chart renders the last good data.
No. In the AUD data the 2013 top (6.64), the January 2014 secondary peak (3.06) and the 2017 top (3.74) all registered above 2.4. The April 2021 top read 1.97, the November 2021 top 1.50 and the August 2025 all-time high 1.20, all below the threshold. The pattern is a steady step-down in the peak reading each cycle, which is what you would expect as Bitcoin's rallies become less parabolic. The SatoshiMacro Model combines Mayer Multiple with 47 other signals so the picture sharpens at the inflection rather than relying on a single threshold cross.
Mayer Multiple sits in Tier 1 (Valuation & Cycle Position) of the SatoshiMacro Model at 25 per cent of total composite weight, alongside 8 other valuation signals (MVRV Z-Score, Pi Cycle Top, 2-Year MA Multiplier, 200-Week MA distance, Power Law deviation, Golden Ratio Multiplier, Rainbow Chart position, Bitcoin Risk Metric). The raw Mayer value is normalised to its own historical percentile rank so a reading of 2.4 feeds in as roughly the 97th percentile rather than so a reading of 2.4 feeds in as '95th percentile' rather than '2.4'apos;2.4so a reading of 2.4 feeds in as '95th percentile' rather than '2.4'apos;, making it directly comparable to other valuation signals on different scales. The tier-averaged score contributes 25 per cent to the final 0-100 SMM composite. Because the tier uses percentile ranks rather than the fixed 2.4 line, a lower peak reading in a later cycle can still register as high relative to history.
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