Bitcoin 200-week moving average heatmap (AUD)
The 200-Week MA Heatmap is one of 9 valuation signals in Tier 1 of the SatoshiMacro Model, a free 48-signal Bitcoin cycle confluence indicator. The 200-week moving average is the long-run reference line for Bitcoin: on AUD prices Bitcoin has closed below it on only 8.2 percent of days since the line begins in late 2016, and those stretches (March 2020, June 2022 to March 2023, June 2026 to August 2026) came at or near bear-market lows. This heatmap plots Bitcoin's AUD price with each point colour-graded by the 4-week rate-of-change of the 200WMA itself. Hot colours mark late-cycle expansion; cool colours mark accumulation and bottom zones. The colour bands are percentile bands of the rate-of-change's own AUD history: the cycle-top zone (10.71 percent and above) is the fastest 5 percent of readings since 28 November 2016. AUD-native, refreshed daily, with the current zone classification surfaced inline.
Chart
Each dot is a Bitcoin AUD daily close, colour-graded by the 4-week rate-of-change of the 200-week moving average. Hot colours (red, yellow) mark the fastest expansion of the long-run trend; cool colours (blue, deep blue) mark accumulation and bottom zones. The white line is the 200WMA itself. Hover any point for daily values and zone classification.
200WMA 4-week ROC historical extremes
| Date | 4-week ROC | Cycle context |
|---|---|---|
| 29 December 2017 | 28.6% (all-time high) | 2017 cycle peak. Maximum 200WMA expansion rate on record. |
| 4 March 2026 | 0.93% (all-time low) | Slowest 200WMA growth rate on record but still positive. The AUD 200WMA has not gone negative. |
What is the current 200WMA ROC reading?
The current 4-week ROC of the 200-week moving average is 1.88 percent, which the chart classifies as "Early recovery". BTC trades +18.3 percent from the 200WMA of A$100,005. For context, the ROC peaked at 28.6 percent in the 2017 cycle, 10.7 percent in April 2021 and only 4.0 percent in March 2024. Each cycle has pushed the long-run average up at a slower rate than the last.
Has Bitcoin's 200WMA ever gone negative?
No. Since the AUD 200WMA begins on 31 October 2016, it has risen every single day. The slowest 4-week expansion rate on record is 0.93 percent (4 March 2026); the FTX-era low came close at 1.17 percent in January 2023. This is one of the indicator's strongest signals: the 200WMA represents long-run accumulated buy interest, and the fact that it has never declined - even through the deepest bear markets - is the structural basis for treating it as Bitcoin's "fair value" anchor.
What is the 200-Week Moving Average Heatmap?
The heatmap combines two layers:
- Bitcoin daily price. Each dot on the chart is one daily AUD close, plotted on a logarithmic Y axis.
- Colour gradient. Each dot's colour reflects the 4-week percentage change of the 200-week moving average AT THAT DAY. The 200WMA is recomputed for every day in the dataset; the colour reflects how rapidly that long-run trend is rising in that 4-week window.
Why this works as a cycle indicator: the 200WMA itself rises faster during cycle expansions (because the rolling window is incorporating higher prices) and rises slower during cycle bottoms (because the window is averaging in lower prices). The rate-of-change of the 200WMA therefore captures the cycle phase more reliably than the raw price, which oscillates wildly day to day.
The framework was popularised by Philip Swift (LookIntoBitcoin) around 2019, building on the long-established institutional convention of using the 200-period moving average as a long-run trend reference (a convention that pre-dates Bitcoin by decades in equities and commodities).
How to read the colour scale
Five colour bands corresponding to five ranges of the 4-week rate-of-change of the 200WMA. They are percentile bands of the ROC's own AUD history since 28 November 2016 (3,602 daily readings), recomputed on every data refresh:
| Colour | ROC range | Zone | Historical context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep blue | Below 1.47% | Capitulation / accumulation | 10% of days: the slowest 10 percent of readings. |
| Blue | 1.47 to 2.57% | Early recovery | 25% of days (10th to 35th percentile). |
| Green | 2.57 to 5.57% | Cycle expansion | 45% of days (35th to 80th percentile). Trend accelerating. |
| Yellow | 5.57 to 10.71% | Late-cycle warming | 15% of days (80th to 95th percentile). Trend strongly accelerating. |
| Red | 10.71% and above | Cycle-top zone | 5% of days: the fastest 5 percent, including the 28.6% peak of 29 December 2017. |
The current band classification is displayed in the stat strip directly above the chart. The colour of the latest-price dot matches the current band. How the documented cycle tops and bottoms classify under these bands:
| Cycle turn | Date | 4-week ROC (%) | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 cycle top | December 2013 | Not covered | Before this indicator's history starts |
| 2017 cycle top | December 2017 | 28.61 (29 December 2017) | Cycle-top zone |
| 2021 first peak | April 2021 | 10.72 (5 April 2021) | Cycle-top zone |
| 2021 second peak (cycle top) | November 2021 | 5.93 (16 November 2021) | Late-cycle warming |
| 2015 cycle bottom | January 2015 | Not covered | Before this indicator's history starts |
| 2018 cycle bottom | December 2018 | 2.14 (7 February 2019) | Early recovery |
| 2022 cycle bottom | November 2022 | 1.17 (11 January 2023) | Capitulation / accumulation |
The "below 200WMA" generational buy zone
Since the AUD 200WMA begins on 31 October 2016, Bitcoin has closed BELOW it on 297 of 3,630 days (8.2 percent). The windows:
- March 2020. The COVID crash took BTC under the line for a few days around the 12 March low. Bitcoin went on to a new high in November 2020.
- June 2022 to March 2023. The Luna, 3AC and FTX bear market. The longest stay below the line in the data, about nine months, bracketing the 21 November 2022 low of A$23,595.
- 2026. The decline from the August 2025 high took BTC below the line again (June 2026 to August 2026).
The December 2018 low (A$4,401) stayed above the AUD 200WMA, and the 2015 bottom predates it, so the "below the line" rule has not caught every bottom.
The pattern is striking enough that the "below 200WMA" state is informally called the generational buy zone in retail crypto analysis. The stat strip displays the percentage of days Bitcoin has historically closed below the 200WMA, alongside the current state.
Three caveats:
- Past performance is not a guarantee. Future cycles may not produce a similar opportunity, especially if institutional adoption flattens cycle structure.
- The framework does not predict HOW LONG Bitcoin will stay below the 200WMA. The 2022-2023 window lasted about nine months; calling the precise bottom is impossible.
- A DCA approach into the zone (buy a fixed amount each week the state persists) is more pragmatic than waiting for the exact bottom.
Where the model breaks down
- Statistical small-sample risk. The AUD 200WMA only covers the cycles since late 2016, with 3 below-the-line windows. The pattern may not generalise.
- Cycle smoothing. If institutional adoption reduces cycle amplitude (lower highs, higher lows), the 200WMA rate-of-change may not reach the historical extreme zones in future cycles.
- Lag. The 200WMA lags actual price action by approximately 100 weeks (half its window). The rate-of-change is a smoothed signal; it does not turn instantly when the underlying trend changes.
- Indicator dependence. Best used alongside other cycle frameworks (Log Regression, Pi Cycle, Mayer Multiple, Halving Overlay). No single indicator captures all the cycle structure.
Methodology
- Data source. Daily BTC/AUD closes from January 2013: Bitstamp BTC/USD converted at the daily AUD/USD rate, with Kraken's native BTC/AUD market for the last two years. Refreshed automatically every day. The 200WMA starts on 31 October 2016 and the 4-week ROC on 28 November 2016.
- 200-week moving average. 1400-day simple moving average of the daily close. First value appears at day 1400.
- 4-week rate-of-change. For each day, the percentage change in the 200WMA over the trailing 28 days. First value appears at day 1428.
- Colour grading. Each daily price dot is coloured based on its 4-week ROC value mapped through the 5-band percentile scale (deep blue below 1.47 percent, through to red at 10.71 percent and above). The cut-offs are the 95th, 80th, 35th and 10th percentiles of the full ROC history, recomputed on every data refresh and shared with the dashboard card.
- Scatter downsampling. The chart renders approximately 600 dots evenly distributed across the visible range for browser performance. The 200WMA line itself is drawn at full daily resolution.
- Resilience. If a price source is unreachable, the previous data file is kept unchanged.
Related tools
- Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD) - long-run fair value with ±1σ / ±2σ bands. Different statistical model, similar long-run trend reference.
- Bitcoin Rainbow Chart (AUD) - sentiment-labelled log regression bands. Visually compatible with the 200WMA heatmap colour grading.
- Bitcoin Mayer Multiple (AUD) - price / 200-day MA. Shorter-window companion to the 200-week chart.
- Bitcoin Dominance Chart - rotation context. Dominance trend complements the 200WMA absolute-price read.
- Altcoin Season Index - flow companion to dominance for the BTC-vs-alts rotation read.
- Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Indicator (AUD) - 111DMA / 350DMA × 2 crossover. Faster top-zone signal.
- Bitcoin Risk Metric (AUD) - 0 to 1 cycle score. Cross-reference with current 200WMA ROC band.
- Bitcoin Halving Countdown + Cycle Overlay - cycle-time context. 200WMA ROC tends to peak 12 to 18 months after each halving.
- Bitcoin DCA Backtest Calculator - if you DCA'd into past "below 200WMA" windows, what would the return + CGT look like today?
Frequently asked questions
The 200-Week Moving Average (200WMA, 1400-day SMA) is one of the longest-running long-run trend references for Bitcoin. The heatmap visualisation, popularised by Philip Swift (LookIntoBitcoin) around 2019, plots Bitcoin's price scatter with each point colour-graded by the 4-week rate-of-change of the 200WMA itself. The rate-of-change captures how quickly the long-run trend is rising: rapid rises (hot colours, red/yellow) indicate late-cycle expansion; slow rises or flat trends (cool colours, blue/deep blue) indicate accumulation phases or bottom zones.
The 200WMA rate-of-change is a smoother, more reliable cycle-position signal than the raw price. Price oscillates aggressively day to day; the 200WMA changes slowly and predictably. The 4-week rate of change captures whether the underlying long-run trend is accelerating (cycle expansion), steady (mid-cycle), or decelerating (approaching a top or already in a bear).
Yes, but rarely. The AUD 200WMA needs 1,400 days of history, so it starts on 31 October 2016. Since then Bitcoin has closed below it on 297 of 3,630 days (8.2 percent), in these windows: March 2020, June 2022 to March 2023, June 2026 to August 2026. The December 2018 low did not break the AUD 200WMA, and the 2014-2015 bottom predates the line. The March 2020 and 2022-2023 windows marked cycle lows in retrospect. The 'below 200WMA' state is sometimes called the 'generational buy zone' for this reason. There is no guarantee future cycles will produce a similar opportunity.
Five percentile bands of the rate-of-change's own AUD history since 28 November 2016. Below 1.47 percent: Capitulation / accumulation, the slowest 10 percent of readings, characteristic of cycle bottoms. 1.47 to 2.57 percent: Early recovery (10th to 35th percentile). 2.57 to 5.57 percent: Cycle expansion (35th to 80th). 5.57 to 10.71 percent: Late-cycle warming (80th to 95th). 10.71 percent and above: Cycle-top zone, the fastest 5 percent of readings. A fixed 3 percent top line would have flagged 56.3 percent of days as top territory on AUD data, which is why the bands are fitted to the data instead.
200 weeks (1,400 days, roughly 3.8 years) captures slightly less than one full Bitcoin halving cycle (4 years). This window is long enough to smooth out cycle structure into a coherent trend line, but short enough that each cycle still leaves a visible mark on the 200WMA's rate-of-change. The 200-period moving average is also a long-established institutional reference in traditional finance (equities, commodities, forex), so the framework carries over with familiar interpretation.
The 200WMA itself is currency-agnostic (the ratio dynamics are the same regardless of price currency), but the absolute price values displayed on the Y axis and in tooltips matter for an Australian-resident investor evaluating their own portfolio. AUD prices let you cross-read this chart with the Bitcoin Log Regression Bands (AUD), Mayer Multiple (AUD), and DCA Backtest (AUD) tools that share the same underlying AUD price feed.
Historically it has been a good zone to accumulate, but the framework is not a buy trigger on its own. On AUD prices the 'below 200WMA' state has occurred around the March 2020 crash, from June 2022 to March 2023 around the FTX-era bottom, and again in 2026. Buyers in the first two windows were well in profit by the following cycle high. The framework does not tell you HOW LONG Bitcoin will stay below the 200WMA; the 2022-2023 window lasted about nine months. A laddered approach (buy a fraction each week the state persists) is more pragmatic than waiting for the exact bottom. The Crypto Exit Strategy Ladder tool can be adapted for buy ladders.
Daily BTC/AUD closes from January 2013: Bitstamp BTC/USD converted at the daily AUD/USD rate, with Kraken's native BTC/AUD market for the last two years. Refreshed automatically every day. The 200WMA and its 4-week rate-of-change are recomputed client-side on every page load. If a price source is unreachable, the previous data file is kept so the chart continues to render with the last good data.
Two separate questions. (1) The 'below 200WMA' zone: on AUD prices it has caught the March 2020 and 2022-2023 lows, but the December 2018 low stayed above the line, and the 2015 bottom predates it. (2) The 4-week ROC zones: at the documented tops it read 2017 cycle top 28.61 (Cycle-top zone); 2021 first peak 10.72 (Cycle-top zone); 2021 second peak (cycle top) 5.93 (Late-cycle warming); at the documented lows 2018 cycle bottom 2.14 (Early recovery); 2022 cycle bottom 1.17 (Capitulation / accumulation). The ROC peaked at 28.6 percent in 29 December 2017, and the 2024-2025 cycle's ROC peaked at only 4.0 percent. Because the 200WMA moves slowly, the ROC lags the price turn. Treat as long-run cycle context, not a precise timing trigger.
Not every one on AUD prices. The line starts in late 2016, so it cannot speak to 2015. The December 2018 low held above it; the March 2020 crash and the 2022-2023 bear market went below it (the latter for about nine months), and so did the 2026 decline. Only 8.2 percent of AUD trading days since late 2016 have closed below the 200WMA, so the signal is genuinely rare. The framework does not tell you HOW LONG Bitcoin will stay below the 200WMA. A laddered DCA approach (buy a fraction each week the state persists) handles this uncertainty better than waiting for the exact bottom day. The SatoshiMacro Model combines 200WMA distance with 47 other signals so the picture sharpens at the inflection.
200-Week MA distance sits in Tier 1 (Valuation & Cycle Position) of the SatoshiMacro Model at 25 per cent of total composite weight, alongside 8 other valuation signals (MVRV Z-Score, Pi Cycle Top, Mayer Multiple, 2-Year MA Multiplier, Power Law deviation, Golden Ratio Multiplier, Rainbow Chart position, Bitcoin Risk Metric). The current price-vs-200WMA deviation is normalised to its expanding-window historical percentile rank, then contributes to the tier-averaged score that drives 25 per cent of the final 0-100 SMM composite. The model's MVRV Z-Score signal also uses a long moving average (4-year) as its realised-value proxy, so the two Tier 1 signals are partially correlated by construction; SMM's tier-averaging absorbs that correlation without double-counting.
About the author
