Bitcoin 200-week moving average heatmap (AUD)
The 200-week moving average is the long-run institutional reference line for Bitcoin. Historically Bitcoin has rarely closed below the 200WMA, and those rare weeks have been generational buying opportunities. This heatmap plots Bitcoin's AUD price with each point colour-graded by the 4-week rate-of-change of the 200WMA itself. Hot colours mark late-cycle expansion; cool colours mark accumulation and bottom zones. AUD-native, auto-updated on every site refresh, with the current zone classification surfaced inline.
Chart
Each dot is a Bitcoin AUD daily close, colour-graded by the 4-week rate-of-change of the 200-week moving average. Hot colours (red, orange, yellow) mark cycle-top zones; cool colours (blue, cyan) mark accumulation and bottom zones. The white line is the 200WMA itself. Hover any point for daily values and zone classification.
200WMA 4-week ROC historical extremes
| Date | 4-week ROC | Cycle context |
|---|---|---|
| 7 December 2017 | 22.2% (all-time high) | 2017 cycle peak. Maximum 200WMA expansion rate on record. |
| 4 December 2022 | 1.1% (all-time low) | FTX-collapse cycle bottom. Slowest 200WMA growth rate on record but still positive - the 200WMA has never gone negative. |
What is the current 200WMA ROC reading?
The current 4-week ROC of the 200-week moving average is 3.2 percent. That places Bitcoin in the "recovery / expansion" band (2-7%), typical of mid-cycle BTC-led phases where the long-run trend is steadily expanding without parabolic acceleration. Historical "top zone" readings (>14%) have only occurred during the 2017 and 2021 cycle peak windows. The current reading suggests Bitcoin is well away from cycle-top conditions on this specific metric.
Has Bitcoin's 200WMA ever gone negative?
No. In post-2014 daily data, Bitcoin's 200-week moving average has expanded every single day. The slowest 4-week expansion rate on record is 1.1 percent (4 December 2022, near the FTX-collapse cycle low). This is one of the indicator's strongest signals: the 200WMA represents long-run accumulated buy interest, and the fact that it has never declined - even through the deepest bear markets - is the structural basis for treating it as Bitcoin's "fair value" anchor.
What is the 200-Week Moving Average Heatmap?
The heatmap combines two layers:
- Bitcoin daily price. Each dot on the chart is one daily AUD close, plotted on a logarithmic Y axis.
- Colour gradient. Each dot's colour reflects the 4-week percentage change of the 200-week moving average AT THAT DAY. The 200WMA is recomputed for every day in the dataset; the colour reflects how rapidly that long-run trend is rising in that 4-week window.
Why this works as a cycle indicator: the 200WMA itself rises faster during cycle expansions (because the rolling window is incorporating higher prices) and rises slower during cycle bottoms (because the window is averaging in lower prices). The rate-of-change of the 200WMA therefore captures the cycle phase more reliably than the raw price, which oscillates wildly day to day.
The framework was popularised by Philip Swift (LookIntoBitcoin) around 2019, building on the long-established institutional convention of using the 200-period moving average as a long-run trend reference (a convention that pre-dates Bitcoin by decades in equities and commodities).
How to read the colour scale
Seven colour bands corresponding to seven ranges of the 4-week rate-of-change of the 200WMA:
| Colour | ROC range | Zone | Historical context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep blue | 0 to 0.5% | Capitulation / accumulation | Cycle bottoms; rare. 2015 / 2019 / 2022 bottoms. |
| Blue | 0.5 to 1.0% | Early recovery | First months after a cycle bottom forms. |
| Cyan | 1.0 to 1.5% | Mid-cycle | The broad middle phase; longest historical duration. |
| Green | 1.5 to 2.0% | Cycle expansion | Trend acceleration; bull market underway. |
| Yellow | 2.0 to 2.5% | Late-cycle warming | Trend strongly accelerating; cycle approaching maturity. |
| Orange | 2.5 to 3.0% | Approaching top zone | Trend acceleration entering rare territory. |
| Red | >3.0% | Cycle-top zone | Final months before each prior cycle top. |
The current band classification is displayed in the stat strip directly above the chart. The colour of the latest-price dot matches the current band.
The "below 200WMA" generational buy zone
Across the full Bitcoin AUD dataset, Bitcoin has closed BELOW its 200-week moving average on fewer than 5 percent of days. The documented windows:
- Late 2014 to early 2015. Post-2013 cycle drawdown. Bitcoin spent approximately 6 months below the 200WMA. Buyers who accumulated during this window saw 100x+ returns by the 2017 cycle top.
- Late 2018 to early 2019. Post-2017 cycle drawdown. Bitcoin spent approximately 4 months below the 200WMA. Buyers who accumulated saw 20x+ returns by the 2021 cycle top.
- Second half of 2022 (FTX-era). Post-2021 cycle drawdown. Bitcoin spent approximately 5 months below the 200WMA. Buyers who accumulated have seen multi-x returns by 2025.
The pattern is striking enough that the "below 200WMA" state is informally called the generational buy zone in retail crypto analysis. The stat strip displays the percentage of days Bitcoin has historically closed below the 200WMA, alongside the current state.
Three caveats:
- Past performance is not a guarantee. Future cycles may not produce a similar opportunity, especially if institutional adoption flattens cycle structure.
- The framework does not predict HOW LONG Bitcoin will stay below the 200WMA. The 2018-2019 window persisted for 14 months in some measures; calling the precise bottom is impossible.
- A DCA approach into the zone (buy a fixed amount each week the state persists) is more pragmatic than waiting for the exact bottom.
Where the model breaks down
- Statistical small-sample risk. Three documented cycles with below-200WMA bottoms is a small sample. The pattern may not generalise.
- Cycle smoothing. If institutional adoption reduces cycle amplitude (lower highs, higher lows), the 200WMA rate-of-change may not reach the historical extreme zones in future cycles.
- Lag. The 200WMA lags actual price action by approximately 100 weeks (half its window). The rate-of-change is a smoothed signal; it does not turn instantly when the underlying trend changes.
- Indicator dependence. Best used alongside other cycle frameworks (Log Regression, Pi Cycle, Mayer Multiple, Halving Overlay). No single indicator captures all the cycle structure.
Methodology
- Data source. Bitcoin AUD daily close prices from a public market-data endpoint, refreshed on every site build. Coverage from 2014 onwards.
- 200-week moving average. 1400-day simple moving average of the daily close. First value appears at day 1400.
- 4-week rate-of-change. For each day, the percentage change in the 200WMA over the trailing 28 days. First value appears at day 1428.
- Colour grading. Each daily price dot is coloured based on its 4-week ROC value mapped through the 7-band scale (deep blue at 0 to 0.5 percent, through to red at over 3 percent).
- Scatter downsampling. The chart renders approximately 600 dots evenly distributed across the visible range for browser performance. The 200WMA line itself is drawn at full daily resolution.
- Resilience. If the upstream source is unreachable during a build, the previous static data file is preserved unchanged.
Related tools
- Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD) - long-run fair value with ±1σ / ±2σ bands. Different statistical model, similar long-run trend reference.
- Bitcoin Rainbow Chart (AUD) - sentiment-labelled log regression bands. Visually compatible with the 200WMA heatmap colour grading.
- Bitcoin Mayer Multiple (AUD) - price / 200-day MA. Shorter-window companion to the 200-week chart.
- Bitcoin Dominance Chart - rotation context. Dominance trend complements the 200WMA absolute-price read.
- Altcoin Season Index - flow companion to dominance for the BTC-vs-alts rotation read.
- Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Indicator (AUD) - 111DMA / 350DMA × 2 crossover. Faster top-zone signal.
- Bitcoin Risk Metric (AUD) - 0 to 1 cycle score. Cross-reference with current 200WMA ROC band.
- Bitcoin Halving Countdown + Cycle Overlay - cycle-time context. 200WMA ROC tends to peak 12 to 18 months after each halving.
- Bitcoin DCA Backtest Calculator - if you DCA'd into past "below 200WMA" windows, what would the return + CGT look like today?
Frequently asked questions
The 200-Week Moving Average (200WMA, 1400-day SMA) is one of the longest-running long-run trend references for Bitcoin. The heatmap visualisation, popularised by Philip Swift (LookIntoBitcoin) around 2019, plots Bitcoin's price scatter with each point colour-graded by the 4-week rate-of-change of the 200WMA itself. The rate-of-change captures how quickly the long-run trend is rising: rapid rises (hot colours, red/orange) indicate late-cycle expansion; slow rises or flat trends (cool colours, blue/cyan) indicate accumulation phases or bottom zones.
The 200WMA rate-of-change is a smoother, more reliable cycle-position signal than the raw price. Price oscillates aggressively day to day; the 200WMA changes slowly and predictably. The 4-week rate of change captures whether the underlying long-run trend is accelerating (cycle expansion), steady (mid-cycle), or decelerating (approaching a top or already in a bear).
Yes, but very rarely. Across the full Bitcoin AUD dataset, fewer than 5 percent of days have closed below the 200WMA. The documented instances: late 2014 to early 2015, late 2018 to early 2019, and the second half of 2022 (FTX-era bottom). Each of these windows has marked a Bitcoin cycle bottom in retrospect. The 'below 200WMA' state is sometimes called the 'generational buy zone' for this reason. There is no guarantee future cycles will produce a similar opportunity.
Seven bands. Below 0.5 percent: Capitulation / accumulation - the 200WMA is barely rising or falling, characteristic of cycle bottoms. 0.5 to 1.0 percent: Early recovery. 1.0 to 1.5 percent: Mid-cycle (the longest-duration zone in historical cycles). 1.5 to 2.0 percent: Cycle expansion. 2.0 to 2.5 percent: Late-cycle warming. 2.5 to 3.0 percent: Approaching cycle top. Above 3.0 percent: Cycle-top zone - the long-run trend is rising at extreme velocity, historically the final months before a Bitcoin cycle top.
200 weeks (1,400 days, roughly 3.8 years) captures slightly less than one full Bitcoin halving cycle (4 years). This window is long enough to smooth out cycle structure into a coherent trend line, but short enough that each cycle still leaves a visible mark on the 200WMA's rate-of-change. The 200-period moving average is also a long-established institutional reference in traditional finance (equities, commodities, forex), so the framework carries over with familiar interpretation.
The 200WMA itself is currency-agnostic (the ratio dynamics are the same regardless of price currency), but the absolute price values displayed on the Y axis and in tooltips matter for an Australian-resident investor evaluating their own portfolio. AUD prices let you cross-read this chart with the Bitcoin Log Regression Bands (AUD), Mayer Multiple (AUD), and DCA Backtest (AUD) tools that share the same underlying AUD price feed.
Historically yes, but the framework is not a buy trigger on its own. The 'below 200WMA' state has occurred in all three documented cycle bottoms (2015, 2019, 2022). Buyers who DCA'd into these windows have realised significant returns by the following cycle top. However, the framework does not tell you HOW LONG Bitcoin will stay below the 200WMA; the 2018-2019 window lasted approximately 14 months. A laddered approach (buy a fraction each week the state persists) is more pragmatic than waiting for the exact bottom. The Crypto Exit Strategy Ladder tool can be adapted for buy ladders.
Bitcoin AUD daily close prices, refreshed on every site build from a public market-data endpoint. The 200WMA and its 4-week rate-of-change are recomputed client-side on every page load. If the upstream source is unreachable during a build, the previous data set is preserved unchanged so the chart continues to render with the last-known-good data.
About the author
