Crypto Analytics · Chart

Solana logarithmic regression bands (AUD)

Long-run logarithmic regression of Solana's AUD price against time since the SOL mainnet launch (April 2020). Central regression line is fair value; ±1σ and ±2σ bands define overheated and undervalued zones. AUD-native (the equivalent USD charts on Bitbo and Lookintobitcoin are USD only). Updated automatically every day.

Last updated: 27 September 2026 By Govind Satoshi

Chart

Each gold dot is a Solana AUD monthly close. The central gold line is the long-run logarithmic regression of price against time. The dashed lines above and below are ±1σ and ±2σ bands. The white circle marks the most recent month. Hover any point on the chart to see the exact price, fair value, and sigma deviation for that month. Solana launched in April 2020 is the regression origin so the log-log fit is meaningful for this asset (using BTC's 2009 genesis would compress Solana's entire history into a vertical wall).

Loading data...

SOL historical sigma extremes

Solana log regression historical extremes: the three highest and three lowest monthly sigma deviations, AUD-priced, April 2020 to October 2026.
MonthSigmaPriceContext
November 2021+2.28σA$2922021 cycle top
October 2021+2.26σA$2692021 Solana DeFi and NFT boom
September 2021+1.99σA$1962021 Solana DeFi and NFT boom
December 2020-2.20σA$1.97Base before the 2021 rally
December 2022-1.88σA$14.72FTX collapse (FTX and Alameda held large SOL positions)
October 2020-1.68σA$2.19Base before the 2021 rally

What is logarithmic regression?

Logarithmic regression in this context means: take the natural log of price on one axis, and the log of days-since-asset-launch on the other axis. Plot the price history. Fit a straight line through the points. Because Solana (like Bitcoin) has appreciated roughly exponentially since launch, the log-log transformation produces a near-linear relationship. The fitted line represents long-run fair value. The residual standard deviation defines band widths above and below the line.

The framework was originally developed for Bitcoin (Bitcointalk user Trolololo, 2014) and has been adapted to other long-running assets including Ethereum, Solana, and the major Layer 1 alts. The interpretation is the same:

  • Above +2σ: historically overheated. Has preceded cycle tops within months in past cycles.
  • +1σ to +2σ: above fair value, late-cycle territory.
  • -1σ to +1σ: near fair value, the historical centre of the cycle range.
  • -2σ to -1σ: below fair value, accumulation territory.
  • Below -2σ: historically rare deep value. Has preceded cycle bottoms in past cycles.

Solana cycle context

Solana has had a uniquely volatile history compared to Bitcoin:

  • April 2020 to November 2021: launch through the first cycle peak. SOL went from ~A$1 to ~A$300, a 300x move in roughly 18 months.
  • November 2021 to December 2022: first bear cycle, exacerbated by the FTX collapse (FTX/Alameda was a major SOL holder). SOL bottomed near A$11.
  • December 2022 onwards: recovery. SOL re-tested A$300+ in early 2025.

The first regression fit was meaningful from ~24 months of data onwards (mid-2022). The current fit incorporates the full launch-to-present history. Sigma values are noisier than the BTC equivalent because SOL has only one completed cycle in the sample.

Methodology

  1. Data source. Monthly SOL/AUD closes from April 2020: Yahoo Finance SOL-USD monthly candles converted at the month-end AUD/USD rate, checked against a known CoinMarketCap close before every update.
  2. Regression origin. SOL mainnet launch, April 2020. Day count starts from there (Day 1 = 1 April 2020).
  3. Fit. Ordinary-least-squares linear regression on (log10(days), log10(price)). Slope and intercept define the central regression line; residual standard deviation defines the band widths.
  4. Projection. Chart extends 18 months past the latest data point so the band envelope and "Latest" marker have room to breathe.
  5. Resilience. Refreshed automatically every day. Each update is checked against a known CoinMarketCap month-end close; if a source fails or the check does not pass, the stored data stays in place and the chart keeps rendering.

Limitations

  • Short sample. Solana has only one completed cycle in the data. The regression fit is more stable as more cycles accumulate; current sigma values may be wider than they will be in 2030.
  • Sigma assumes normal residuals. SOL's residual distribution has fatter tails than a true normal, so the ±2σ envelope may not capture exactly 95% of historical observations.
  • Single-asset reasoning. The chart says nothing about BTC, ETH, or broader alt rotation. Use alongside the Bitcoin Dominance Chart and Altcoin Season Index for rotation context.
  • Lagging. The regression is fitted to past data. Bands drawn today are not exactly where bands drawn 12 months ago sat.
  • SOL-specific risks. Solana has had several extended network outages historically (5+ multi-hour outages between 2021 and 2023). The log regression captures price history but not validator-set risk; treat the chart as one input among many.

Frequently asked questions

The chart plots Solana's monthly AUD price against days since the Solana mainnet launch (April 2020) on log-log axes. A straight-line ordinary-least-squares regression is fitted through the points; that line represents long-run fair value. Standard-deviation bands above and below the line (±1σ and ±2σ) define overheated and undervalued zones based on the distribution of historical residuals.

Logarithmic regression requires a positive day count for every data point. Using Bitcoin's January 2009 genesis as origin (the way BTC log regression charts do) would force Solana's entire history into a thin vertical wall on the right edge of the chart, since SOL only launched in April 2020. Using SOL's own mainnet launch as origin gives the regression meaningful spread across the x-axis. The same approach is used for the other alt log regression charts on SatoshiMacro (XRP, LINK, AVAX, ADA).

Solana has one full cycle in the sample (2020-21 bull, 2022 bear, 2023-25 recovery), so the history is short. The November 2021 top reached +2.28σ and the December 2022 FTX-collapse low -1.88σ. The 2024-25 run set higher prices but a much lower sigma reading (+0.99σ in November 2024), because the regression line itself had risen. Treat the bands as rough guides given the short sample.

The AUD-USD exchange rate has moved between roughly 0.62 and 0.78 USD per AUD across Solana's lifetime. AUD-priced SOL therefore has a different slope and different absolute price levels than the USD chart. Australian-resident investors care about AUD-denominated returns, so the AUD-native chart is the correct reference. Most published log regression charts (Bitbo, Lookintobitcoin) are USD-only.

Monthly SOL/AUD closes from April 2020: Yahoo Finance SOL-USD monthly candles converted at the month-end AUD/USD rate, checked against a known CoinMarketCap close before every update. The data refreshes automatically every day and the chart re-fits the regression on each page load.

No. The log regression is a long-run fair-value reference, not a trade signal. Use it as one input alongside other cycle indicators (Bitcoin Risk Metric, Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top, Bitcoin Dominance, Altcoin Season Index) and your own fundamental view of Solana's ecosystem. Any sale that triggers a CGT event in Australia should be planned with the Crypto CGT Calculator for after-tax proceeds.

About the author

Govind Satoshi
Govind Satoshi
Former Institutional Trader. Founder, SatoshiMacro.
Traded allocated institutional capital at a Sydney proprietary trading firm.