Solana Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD)

Chart

Each gold dot is a Solana AUD monthly close. The central gold line is the long-run logarithmic regression of price against time. The dashed lines above and below are ±1σ and ±2σ bands. The white circle marks the most recent month. Hover any point on the chart to see the exact price, fair value, and sigma deviation for that month. Solana launched in April 2020 is the regression origin so the log-log fit is meaningful for this asset (using BTC's 2009 genesis would compress Solana's entire history into a vertical wall).

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SOL historical sigma extremes

Solana log regression historical extremes: months with the largest positive and negative sigma deviations. AUD-priced, regression anchored to SOL's April 2020 mainnet launch.
Month	Sigma	Price	Cycle context
November 2021	+2.09σ	A$297	SOL cycle peak (Solana Breakpoint conference week)
October 2021	+2.06σ	A$270	Pre-peak rally
September 2021	+1.85σ	A$205	NFT mania (DeGods, Okay Bears launches)
December 2022	-1.92σ	A$14.80	FTX collapse - SOL heavily held by FTX/Alameda
December 2020	-1.83σ	A$2.59	Pre-DeFi-summer accumulation

What is logarithmic regression?

Logarithmic regression in this context means: take the natural log of price on one axis, and the log of days-since-asset-launch on the other axis. Plot the price history. Fit a straight line through the points. Because Solana (like Bitcoin) has appreciated roughly exponentially since launch, the log-log transformation produces a near-linear relationship. The fitted line represents long-run fair value. The residual standard deviation defines band widths above and below the line.

The framework was originally developed for Bitcoin (Bitcointalk user Trolololo, 2014) and has been adapted to other long-running assets including Ethereum, Solana, and the major Layer 1 alts. The interpretation is the same:

Above +2σ: historically overheated. Has preceded cycle tops within months in past cycles.
+1σ to +2σ: above fair value, late-cycle territory.
-1σ to +1σ: near fair value, the historical centre of the cycle range.
-2σ to -1σ: below fair value, accumulation territory.
Below -2σ: historically rare deep value. Has preceded cycle bottoms in past cycles.

Solana cycle context

Solana has had a uniquely volatile history compared to Bitcoin:

April 2020 to November 2021: launch through the first cycle peak. SOL went from ~A$1 to ~A$300, a 300x move in roughly 18 months.
November 2021 to December 2022: first bear cycle, exacerbated by the FTX collapse (FTX/Alameda was a major SOL holder). SOL bottomed near A$11.
December 2022 onwards: recovery. SOL re-tested A$300+ in early 2025.

The first regression fit was meaningful from ~24 months of data onwards (mid-2022). The current fit incorporates the full launch-to-present history. Sigma values are noisier than the BTC equivalent because SOL has only one completed cycle in the sample.

Methodology

Data source. Monthly SOL/AUD closing prices from April 2020 to present. CryptoCompare histoday endpoint (primary, free, reliable from cloud IPs) with CoinGecko market_chart as fallback. Hand-curated seed provides the historical context.
Regression origin. SOL mainnet launch, April 2020. Day count starts from there (Day 1 = 1 April 2020).
Fit. Ordinary-least-squares linear regression on (log10(days), log10(price)). Slope and intercept define the central regression line; residual standard deviation defines the band widths.
Projection. Chart extends 18 months past the latest data point so the band envelope and "Latest" marker have room to breathe.
Resilience. If both data sources fail during a Cloudflare build, the previous static data file is preserved and the chart continues to render with last-known-good data.

Limitations

Short sample. Solana has only one completed cycle in the data. The regression fit is more stable as more cycles accumulate; current sigma values may be wider than they will be in 2030.
Sigma assumes normal residuals. SOL's residual distribution has fatter tails than a true normal, so the ±2σ envelope may not capture exactly 95% of historical observations.
Single-asset reasoning. The chart says nothing about BTC, ETH, or broader alt rotation. Use alongside the Bitcoin Dominance Chart and Altcoin Season Index for rotation context.
Lagging. The regression is fitted to past data. Bands drawn today are not exactly where bands drawn 12 months ago sat.
SOL-specific risks. Solana has had several extended network outages historically (5+ multi-hour outages between 2021 and 2023). The log regression captures price history but not validator-set risk; treat the chart as one input among many.

Putting the math into practice

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Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD) - the reference framework. BTC has the longest sample and most-cited sigma bands.
Bitcoin Rainbow Chart (AUD) - sentiment-labelled version of the BTC log regression.
Ethereum Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD) - ETH equivalent.
XRP Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD) - alt log regression.
Chainlink (LINK) Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD) - alt log regression.
Avalanche (AVAX) Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD) - alt log regression.
Cardano (ADA) Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD) - alt log regression.
Bitcoin Dominance Chart - rotation context for any alt position.
Altcoin Season Index - live flow measure of top-50 alts vs BTC.
Charts Dashboard - all 57 indicators on one page.
Crypto CGT Calculator - ATO 50 percent discount on any SOL disposal.

Frequently asked questions

What does the Solana log regression chart show?

The chart plots Solana's monthly AUD price against days since the Solana mainnet launch (April 2020) on log-log axes. A straight-line ordinary-least-squares regression is fitted through the points; that line represents long-run fair value. Standard-deviation bands above and below the line (±1σ and ±2σ) define overheated and undervalued zones based on the distribution of historical residuals.

Why use Solana's launch date as the regression origin?

Logarithmic regression requires a positive day count for every data point. Using Bitcoin's January 2009 genesis as origin (the way BTC log regression charts do) would force Solana's entire history into a thin vertical wall on the right edge of the chart, since SOL only launched in April 2020. Using SOL's own mainnet launch as origin gives the regression meaningful spread across the x-axis. The same approach is used for the other alt log regression charts on SatoshiMacro (XRP, LINK, AVAX, ADA).

Has Solana's log regression been a useful cycle indicator?

Solana has only completed one full cycle (the 2020-2021 bull, 2022 bear, 2023-2024 recovery, 2024-2025 second peak), so the historical sample is shorter than BTC's. Within that single cycle, the November 2021 peak printed at approximately +2σ above the regression line, the December 2022 bottom printed at approximately -2σ, and the 2024 ATH again touched +2σ. The pattern is consistent with the BTC framework but the sigma values are noisier given the shorter sample.

Why is the AUD chart different from the USD chart on Bitbo?

The AUD-USD exchange rate has moved between roughly 0.62 and 0.78 USD per AUD across Solana's lifetime. AUD-priced SOL therefore has a different slope and different absolute price levels than the USD chart. Australian-resident investors care about AUD-denominated returns, so the AUD-native chart is the correct reference. Most published log regression charts (Bitbo, Lookintobitcoin) are USD-only.

What is the data source?

CryptoCompare histoday endpoint (primary, no API key required, reliable from cloud IPs) with CoinGecko market_chart as fallback. SatoshiMacro hand-curated monthly seed (April 2020 to December 2025) provides historical context. On every Cloudflare Pages build, the fetch script merges fresh live data over the recent end of the seed and recomputes the regression.

Should I buy or sell Solana based on this chart alone?

No. The log regression is a long-run fair-value reference, not a trade signal. Use it as one input alongside other cycle indicators (Bitcoin Risk Metric, Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top, Bitcoin Dominance, Altcoin Season Index) and your own fundamental view of Solana's ecosystem. Any sale that triggers a CGT event in Australia should be planned with the Crypto CGT Calculator for after-tax proceeds.

About the author

Govind Satoshi

Former Institutional Trader. Founder, SatoshiMacro.

Traded allocated institutional capital at a Sydney proprietary trading firm.