XRP logarithmic regression bands (AUD)
Long-run logarithmic regression of XRP's AUD price against time since the XRP Ledger launch (mid-2013). Central regression line is fair value; ±1σ and ±2σ bands define overheated and undervalued zones. XRP has the second-longest cycle history of any non-BTC alt (after LTC), giving the regression a robust 12-year sample. AUD-native, Updated automatically every day.
Chart
Each gold dot is a Ripple XRP AUD monthly close. The central gold line is the long-run logarithmic regression of price against time. The dashed lines above and below are ±1σ and ±2σ bands. The white circle marks the most recent month. Hover any point on the chart to see the exact price, fair value, and sigma deviation for that month. XRP Ledger launched in August 2013 is the regression origin so the log-log fit is meaningful for this asset (using BTC's 2009 genesis would compress Ripple XRP's entire history into a vertical wall).
XRP historical sigma extremes
| Month | Sigma | Price | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| January 2014 | +3.41σ | A$0.023 | Early-history spike (thin sample distorts the first months) |
| December 2017 | +2.91σ | A$2.95 | 2017 cycle top |
| February 2014 | +2.58σ | A$0.015 | Early-history spike (thin sample) |
| February 2017 | -2.60σ | A$0.0072 | Sub-cent base before the 2017 rally |
| January 2017 | -2.40σ | A$0.0083 | Sub-cent base before the 2017 rally |
| December 2016 | -2.27σ | A$0.0089 | Sub-cent base before the 2017 rally |
What is logarithmic regression?
Log-log linear regression: take log of price on one axis, log of days-since-launch on the other, fit a straight line. Because crypto assets have appreciated exponentially over their lifetimes, the log-log transformation produces near-linear relationships. The fitted line is long-run fair value; residual standard deviation defines band widths.
XRP cycle context
- 2014-2016: sub-A$0.01 era. Most pre-ICO altcoins traded similarly.
- 2017-Jan 2018: ICO-era mania top, XRP printed ~A$3.
- 2018-2020: bear market down to A$0.30-0.40 range.
- Dec 2020: SEC files suit against Ripple. XRP delisted from major US venues, price compressed.
- 2021: partial recovery alongside the broader bull, peaked near A$2.
- Jul 2023: partial Ripple win in SEC case; XRP rallied 60%+ in a week.
- Nov 2024 - Jan 2025: post-election rally + ETF speculation took XRP to A$3+.
Methodology
- Data source. Monthly XRP/AUD closes from January 2014: CoinMarketCap XRP-USD monthly candles to October 2017, Yahoo Finance XRP-USD from November 2017, converted at the month-end AUD/USD rate.
- Regression origin. XRP Ledger launch, August 2013.
- Fit. OLS linear regression on (log10(days), log10(price)). Slope, intercept, and residual standard deviation define the central line and band widths.
- Projection. 18 months past latest data point for visual breathing room.
- Resilience. Refreshed automatically every day. Each update is checked against a known CoinMarketCap month-end close; if a source fails or the check does not pass, the stored data stays in place and the chart keeps rendering.
Limitations
- News-driven price action. XRP has been materially affected by regulatory news (SEC case, ETF filings) more than other top-10 alts. Single-event moves can break the model briefly.
- Sigma assumes normal residuals. XRP's residuals have wider tails than normal, especially during the 2017-2018 cycle.
- Pre-2017 sample is thin. XRP traded at sub-A$0.01 levels for most of 2014-2016, which dominates the log fit's earliest data points. The regression slope is sensitive to this segment.
- Lagging indicator. Bands shift slightly with each new monthly close.
Related tools
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Frequently asked questions
Monthly XRP/AUD price plotted against days since the XRP Ledger launch (August 2013) on log-log axes. An OLS regression is fitted; the line represents long-run fair value. Standard-deviation bands above and below the line define overheated and undervalued zones.
Logarithmic regression requires a positive day count. Using Bitcoin's January 2009 genesis would push XRP's earliest data points off to the left and distort the slope. Using XRP's own launch (August 2013) as origin gives the regression meaningful spread across the x-axis.
Partly. The 2017 top at about A$2.95 reached +2.91σ. The 2018-2020 bear market bottomed at -0.41σ in March 2020, below the line but not deeply, because the regression is anchored by the sub-cent 2014-2016 years. The 2024-25 rally reached +1.14σ in January 2025. XRP is heavily news-driven (the SEC case, ETF speculation), so single events can push it away from the model for a while.
The SEC case against Ripple (filed December 2020, partial Ripple win in July 2023, final judgment in August 2024, appeals dropped in 2025) weighed on XRP's price through the litigation years. The regression fits realised prices without special treatment, so the 2021-2023 readings include that litigation discount and the 2024-25 rally reflects its removal.
AUD-USD has ranged from roughly 0.62 to 0.80 USD per AUD across XRP's lifetime. AUD-priced XRP has different absolute levels and a slightly different slope than the USD chart. Australian-resident investors care about AUD returns.
Monthly XRP/AUD closes from January 2014: CoinMarketCap XRP-USD monthly candles up to October 2017 and Yahoo Finance XRP-USD from November 2017, converted at the month-end AUD/USD rate and checked against a known CoinMarketCap close before every update. The data refreshes automatically every day; if a source fails, the stored data stays in place.
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