XRP logarithmic regression bands (AUD)
Long-run logarithmic regression of XRP's AUD price against time since the XRP Ledger launch (mid-2013). Central regression line is fair value; ±1σ and ±2σ bands define overheated and undervalued zones. XRP has the second-longest cycle history of any non-BTC alt (after LTC), giving the regression a robust 12-year sample. AUD-native, auto-updated on every site build.
Chart
Each gold dot is a Ripple XRP AUD monthly close. The central gold line is the long-run logarithmic regression of price against time. The dashed lines above and below are ±1σ and ±2σ bands. The white circle marks the most recent month. Hover any point on the chart to see the exact price, fair value, and sigma deviation for that month. XRP Ledger launched in August 2013 is the regression origin so the log-log fit is meaningful for this asset (using BTC's 2009 genesis would compress Ripple XRP's entire history into a vertical wall).
XRP historical sigma extremes
| Month | Sigma | Price | Cycle context |
|---|---|---|---|
| January 2014 | +3.13σ | A$0.03 | Early-era spike (note: short sample distorts early extreme) |
| February 2014 | +2.94σ | A$0.03 | Continuation of early-era spike |
| December 2017 | +2.70σ | A$2.99 | 2017 cycle top (XRP all-time-high in AUD until 2025) |
| October 2016 | -2.18σ | A$0.01 | Pre-2017-mania deep accumulation zone |
| December 2016 | -2.29σ | A$0.01 | Sub-cent territory before the ICO rally |
| January 2017 | -2.36σ | A$0.01 | Deepest XRP undervaluation on record |
What is logarithmic regression?
Log-log linear regression: take log of price on one axis, log of days-since-launch on the other, fit a straight line. Because crypto assets have appreciated exponentially over their lifetimes, the log-log transformation produces near-linear relationships. The fitted line is long-run fair value; residual standard deviation defines band widths.
XRP cycle context
- 2014-2016: sub-A$0.01 era. Most pre-ICO altcoins traded similarly.
- 2017-Jan 2018: ICO-era mania top, XRP printed ~A$3.
- 2018-2020: bear market down to A$0.30-0.40 range.
- Dec 2020: SEC files suit against Ripple. XRP delisted from major US venues, price compressed.
- 2021: partial recovery alongside the broader bull, peaked near A$2.
- Jul 2023: partial Ripple win in SEC case; XRP rallied 60%+ in a week.
- Nov 2024 - Jan 2025: post-election rally + ETF speculation took XRP to A$3+.
Methodology
- Data source. Monthly XRP/AUD closes from 2014 onwards. CryptoCompare histoday primary, CoinGecko fallback. Hand-curated seed for historical context.
- Regression origin. XRP Ledger launch, August 2013.
- Fit. OLS linear regression on (log10(days), log10(price)). Slope, intercept, and residual standard deviation define the central line and band widths.
- Projection. 18 months past latest data point for visual breathing room.
- Resilience. Static seed preserved if both upstream sources fail during build.
Limitations
- News-driven price action. XRP has been materially affected by regulatory news (SEC case, ETF filings) more than other top-10 alts. Single-event moves can break the model briefly.
- Sigma assumes normal residuals. XRP's residuals have wider tails than normal, especially during the 2017-2018 cycle.
- Pre-2017 sample is thin. XRP traded at sub-A$0.01 levels for most of 2014-2016, which dominates the log fit's earliest data points. The regression slope is sensitive to this segment.
- Lagging indicator. Bands shift slightly with each new monthly close.
Related tools
- Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD) - reference framework with longest sample.
- Ethereum Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD)
- Solana Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD)
- Chainlink (LINK) Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD)
- Avalanche (AVAX) Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD)
- Cardano (ADA) Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD)
- Bitcoin Dominance Chart - rotation context.
- Altcoin Season Index
- Charts Dashboard - all 57 indicators on one page.
- Crypto CGT Calculator - ATO 50% discount on any XRP disposal.
Frequently asked questions
Monthly XRP/AUD price plotted against days since the XRP Ledger launch (August 2013) on log-log axes. An OLS regression is fitted; the line represents long-run fair value. Standard-deviation bands above and below the line define overheated and undervalued zones.
Logarithmic regression requires a positive day count. Using Bitcoin's January 2009 genesis would push XRP's earliest data points off to the left and distort the slope. Using XRP's own launch (August 2013) as origin gives the regression meaningful spread across the x-axis.
XRP has completed three roughly-aligned cycles (2017 top, 2018 bottom, 2021 secondary peak, 2022 bottom, 2024-2025 secondary peak). The 2017 cycle top at ~A$3 printed well above +2σ. The 2018 bottom printed near -1σ. The 2024-2025 rally took XRP back to the +1σ to +2σ band. The pattern matches the BTC framework but XRP is heavily news-driven (SEC lawsuit, ETF speculation) so single-event moves can break the model briefly before mean-reverting.
The SEC vs Ripple case (filed December 2020, partial Ripple win July 2023, final settlement 2024) materially affected XRP price during the litigation period. The log regression incorporates that price action without special treatment - the chart simply fits the realised price history. Interpretation: bands during the 2021-2023 litigation period reflected the litigation discount; bands from 2024 onwards reflect the post-settlement reality.
AUD-USD has ranged from roughly 0.62 to 0.80 USD per AUD across XRP's lifetime. AUD-priced XRP has different absolute levels and a slightly different slope than the USD chart. Australian-resident investors care about AUD returns.
CryptoCompare histoday endpoint (primary) with CoinGecko market_chart as fallback. Hand-curated monthly seed from 2014 onwards. Fetch script refreshes on every Cloudflare Pages build; if both sources fail, the static seed continues to render.
About the author
