Cardano (ADA) logarithmic regression bands (AUD)
Long-run logarithmic regression of Cardano's AUD price against time since the ADA mainnet launch (September 2017). Central regression line is fair value; ±1σ and ±2σ bands define overheated and undervalued zones. ADA has ~8 years of price history covering two completed cycles. AUD-native, auto-updated on every site build.
Chart
Each gold dot is a Cardano (ADA) AUD monthly close. The central gold line is the long-run logarithmic regression of price against time. The dashed lines above and below are ±1σ and ±2σ bands. The white circle marks the most recent month. Hover any point on the chart to see the exact price, fair value, and sigma deviation for that month. Cardano mainnet launched in September 2017 is the regression origin so the log-log fit is meaningful for this asset (using BTC's 2009 genesis would compress Cardano (ADA)'s entire history into a vertical wall).
ADA historical sigma extremes
| Month | Sigma | Price | Cycle context |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 2017 | +2.47σ | A$0.92 | Post-launch ICO mania peak (3 months after ADA launch) |
| January 2018 | +2.11σ | A$0.79 | Cycle-top distribution month |
| August 2021 | +1.98σ | A$3.78 | 2021 Shelley/smart-contract cycle peak (ADA ATH) |
| April 2020 | -1.80σ | A$0.06 | Post-COVID-crash recovery month |
| December 2019 | -1.85σ | A$0.05 | Late-2019 cycle low |
| March 2020 | -2.06σ | A$0.04 | COVID crash bottom - deepest ADA undervaluation on record |
What is logarithmic regression?
Log-log linear regression: take log of price on one axis, log of days-since-launch on the other, fit a straight line. Because crypto assets have appreciated exponentially over their lifetimes, the log-log transformation produces near-linear relationships. The fitted line represents long-run fair value; residual standard deviation defines band widths.
Cardano cycle context
- Sep 2017 to Jan 2018: launch through the ICO-era mania peak. ADA went from ~A$0.03 at launch to ~A$1.50 in 4 months.
- 2018-2020: bear market down to A$0.04-0.05.
- 2020-Sep 2021: Shelley mainnet, smart contracts, peak around A$4.
- 2022-2023: second bear cycle, bottomed around A$0.30.
- 2024-2025: secondary peak around A$1.40 in the post-election rally. Underperformed BTC and the SOL/AVAX cohort.
Methodology
- Data source. Monthly ADA/AUD closes from September 2017 onwards. CryptoCompare histoday primary, CoinGecko fallback.
- Regression origin. Cardano mainnet launch, September 2017.
- Fit. OLS linear regression on (log10(days), log10(price)).
- Projection. 18 months past latest data point.
- Resilience. Static seed preserved if both upstream sources fail.
Limitations
- Two-cycle sample. ADA has only completed two full cycles. Regression more stable as cycles accumulate.
- Pre-Shelley sample. Cardano's early 2018-2020 period had limited functional use (smart contracts launched in September 2021). The early sample reflects pure speculation; this affects the regression slope.
- Sigma assumes normal residuals. ADA's residual distribution has fatter tails than normal.
- Single-asset reasoning. Use alongside Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Season Index for rotation context.
Related tools
- Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD) - reference framework.
- Ethereum Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD)
- Solana Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD)
- XRP Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD)
- Chainlink (LINK) Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD)
- Avalanche (AVAX) Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD)
- Bitcoin Dominance Chart
- Altcoin Season Index
- Charts Dashboard - all 13+ cycle indicators on one page.
- Crypto CGT Calculator - ATO 50% discount on any ADA disposal.
Frequently asked questions
Monthly ADA/AUD price plotted against days since the September 2017 Cardano mainnet launch on log-log axes. OLS regression fitted; central line is long-run fair value. ±1σ and ±2σ bands define overheated and undervalued zones based on the distribution of historical residuals.
Log regression requires positive day counts. Using BTC's 2009 genesis compresses ADA's 2017-onwards history into a thin vertical band. Using ADA's own mainnet launch (September 2017) as origin gives the regression meaningful spread.
Cardano has completed two cycles in the sample. The January 2018 peak (~A$1.50) printed at +2σ. The 2018-2020 bear bottom (~A$0.04) printed near -2σ. The September 2021 peak (~A$4) printed above +2σ. The 2022-2023 bottom (~A$0.30) printed near -1σ to -2σ. The 2024-2025 secondary peak retested +1σ. The pattern matches the BTC framework but ADA has been a relative underperformer in the current cycle.
Subjective interpretation: Cardano's slower research-driven development pace has been a marketing weakness against faster-moving L1s (Solana, Avalanche). The log regression doesn't take a view - it simply reflects realised price. The chart shows ADA underperforming its long-run trend during the current cycle (likely sitting in the -1σ to fair-value band rather than the +1σ to +2σ band most other L1s have visited).
Standard OLS linear regression on (log10(days since ADA launch), log10(price in AUD)). Slope and intercept define the central line; residual standard deviation defines the band widths. Recomputed on every site build from the latest available data.
No. Use as one input alongside BTC cycle indicators (Risk Metric, Pi Cycle, Dominance, Altseason Index) and your own fundamental view of Cardano's competitive position. Any sale that triggers a CGT event in Australia should be planned with the Crypto CGT Calculator for after-tax proceeds.
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