Chainlink (LINK) logarithmic regression bands (AUD)
Long-run logarithmic regression of Chainlink's AUD price against time since the LINK token launch (September 2017). Central regression line is fair value; ±1σ and ±2σ bands define overheated and undervalued zones. LINK has ~8 years of price history covering two completed cycles. AUD-native, Updated automatically every day.
Chart
Each gold dot is a Chainlink (LINK) AUD monthly close. The central gold line is the long-run logarithmic regression of price against time. The dashed lines above and below are ±1σ and ±2σ bands. The white circle marks the most recent month. Hover any point on the chart to see the exact price, fair value, and sigma deviation for that month. Chainlink LINK token launched in September 2017 is the regression origin so the log-log fit is meaningful for this asset (using BTC's 2009 genesis would compress Chainlink (LINK)'s entire history into a vertical wall).
LINK historical sigma extremes
| Month | Sigma | Price | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 2017 | +3.59σ | A$0.575 | Launch-month spike (thin sample distorts the first months) |
| April 2021 | +2.13σ | A$49.02 | 2021 peak (all-time-high month-end) |
| May 2021 | +1.89σ | A$41.62 | 2021 top, first month down |
| December 2018 | -2.16σ | A$0.411 | 2018 bear-market low |
| November 2018 | -1.97σ | A$0.440 | 2018 bear-market low |
| January 2019 | -1.93σ | A$0.534 | Base before the 2019 rally |
What is logarithmic regression?
Log-log linear regression: take log of price on one axis, log of days-since-launch on the other, fit a straight line. Because crypto assets have appreciated exponentially over their lifetimes, the log-log transformation produces near-linear relationships. The fitted line represents long-run fair value; residual standard deviation defines band widths.
Chainlink cycle context
- Sep 2017 to early 2019: launch through the 2017 mania top. LINK ICO'd at ~A$0.15 and barely moved during the broader 2017 ICO frenzy.
- 2019-2020: the "DeFi summer" recognition. LINK rallied from A$0.50 to A$25+ as oracle demand exploded.
- May 2021: first cycle peak near A$70.
- Jun 2022: first cycle bottom near A$8 alongside the broader bear.
- 2024-2025: secondary peak in mid-2024 around A$30. LINK has underperformed SOL and AVAX in the current cycle.
Methodology
- Data source. Monthly LINK/AUD closes from September 2017: CoinMarketCap for the first two months, then Yahoo Finance LINK-USD monthly candles, converted at the month-end AUD/USD rate.
- Regression origin. LINK token launch, September 2017.
- Fit. OLS linear regression on (log10(days), log10(price)). Computed client-side on every page load.
- Projection. 18 months past latest data point.
- Resilience. Refreshed automatically every day. Each update is checked against a known CoinMarketCap month-end close; if a source fails or the check does not pass, the stored data stays in place and the chart keeps rendering.
Limitations
- Two-cycle sample. LINK has only completed two cycles. The regression is less stable than BTC's 4-cycle sample.
- Team unlock pressure. Chainlink Labs has historically transferred LINK from the team allocation to exchanges; the chart reflects realised price including this supply pressure.
- Sigma assumes normal residuals. LINK's residual distribution has fatter tails than normal.
- Single-asset reasoning. Use alongside Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Season Index for rotation context.
Related tools
- Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD) - reference framework.
- Ethereum Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD)
- Solana Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD)
- XRP Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD)
- Avalanche (AVAX) Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD)
- Cardano (ADA) Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD)
- Bitcoin Dominance Chart
- Altcoin Season Index
- Charts Dashboard - all 57 indicators.
- Crypto CGT Calculator - ATO 50% discount on any LINK disposal.
Frequently asked questions
Monthly LINK/AUD price plotted against days since the September 2017 LINK token launch on log-log axes. OLS regression fitted; central line represents long-run fair value. ±1σ and ±2σ bands define overheated and undervalued zones based on the distribution of historical residuals.
Log regression requires positive day counts. Using BTC's 2009 genesis compresses LINK's 2017-onwards history into a thin vertical band on the chart. Using LINK's own September 2017 launch as origin gives the regression meaningful spread across the x-axis.
Chainlink has two cycles in the sample. The 2021 top reached +2.13σ in April 2021 (month-end A$49.02). The June 2022 low (-0.36σ, about A$9.09) sat near the line; the deepest undervaluation came in the 2018 bear market (-2.16σ, December 2018). The 2024 recovery took LINK to about A$32.16 by December 2024 (+0.55σ).
Subjective interpretation, but: LINK's narrative (oracle infrastructure) has matured into integration rather than speculation; the LINK token has historically been less correlated with bull-market mania than retail-driven L1 alts; and LINK has had heavy team token unlocks throughout 2024-2025. The log regression simply reflects realised price action - the chart doesn't take a view on whether the underperformance is justified.
Standard OLS linear regression on (log10(days since LINK launch), log10(price in AUD)). Slope and intercept define the central line; the residual standard deviation defines the band widths. Recomputed whenever the data refreshes.
No. Use as one input alongside BTC cycle indicators (Risk Metric, Pi Cycle, Dominance) and your own fundamental view of Chainlink's competitive position. Any sale that triggers a CGT event in Australia should be planned with the Crypto CGT Calculator.
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