Crypto Analytics · Chart

Avalanche (AVAX) logarithmic regression bands (AUD)

Long-run logarithmic regression of Avalanche's AUD price against time since the AVAX mainnet launch (September 2020). Central regression line is fair value; ±1σ and ±2σ bands define overheated and undervalued zones. AVAX has ~5 years of price history covering one full cycle. AUD-native, auto-updated on every site build.

Last updated: 17 May 2026 By Govind Satoshi

Chart

Each gold dot is a Avalanche (AVAX) AUD monthly close. The central gold line is the long-run logarithmic regression of price against time. The dashed lines above and below are ±1σ and ±2σ bands. The white circle marks the most recent month. Hover any point on the chart to see the exact price, fair value, and sigma deviation for that month. Avalanche mainnet launched in September 2020 is the regression origin so the log-log fit is meaningful for this asset (using BTC's 2009 genesis would compress Avalanche (AVAX)'s entire history into a vertical wall).

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AVAX historical sigma extremes

Avalanche (AVAX) log regression historical extremes: months with the largest positive and negative sigma deviations. AUD-priced, regression anchored to AVAX's September 2020 mainnet launch.
MonthSigmaPriceCycle context
November 2021+2.43σA$155AVAX cycle peak (Avalanche Rush incentive program peak)
December 2021+2.34σA$149Cycle-top distribution month
March 2022+2.25σA$148Brief secondary peak before the 2022 bear
September 2023-1.47σA$14Late-bear deep accumulation
December 2020-1.79σA$5Post-launch accumulation before 2021 rally
November 2020-1.84σA$4Deepest AVAX undervaluation on record

What is logarithmic regression?

Log-log linear regression: take log of price on one axis, log of days-since-launch on the other, fit a straight line. Because crypto assets have appreciated exponentially over their lifetimes, the log-log transformation produces near-linear relationships. The fitted line represents long-run fair value; residual standard deviation defines band widths.

Avalanche cycle context

  • Sep 2020 to Nov 2021: launch through first cycle peak. AVAX went from ~A$4 at launch to ~A$155 in 14 months.
  • Nov 2021 to Dec 2022: first bear cycle, bottomed near A$15 at the FTX collapse.
  • 2023-2024: recovery driven by subnet launches (DeFi Kingdoms, Crabada, gaming projects).
  • Late 2024: secondary peak around A$60 in the post-election rally.

Methodology

  1. Data source. Monthly AVAX/AUD closes from September 2020 onwards. CryptoCompare histoday primary, CoinGecko fallback.
  2. Regression origin. AVAX mainnet launch, September 2020.
  3. Fit. OLS linear regression on (log10(days), log10(price)).
  4. Projection. 18 months past latest data point.
  5. Resilience. Static seed preserved if both upstream sources fail.

Limitations

  • One-cycle sample. AVAX has only completed one full cycle. The regression will become more stable as more cycles accumulate.
  • Subnet token unlocks. AVAX has had material team and ecosystem token unlocks across 2021-2025. The chart reflects realised price including supply pressure.
  • Sigma assumes normal residuals. AVAX's residual distribution has fatter tails than normal.
  • Single-asset reasoning. Use alongside Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Season Index for rotation context.

Frequently asked questions

Monthly AVAX/AUD price plotted against days since the September 2020 Avalanche mainnet launch on log-log axes. OLS regression fitted; central line represents long-run fair value. ±1σ and ±2σ bands define overheated and undervalued zones.

Log regression requires positive day counts. Using BTC's 2009 genesis compresses AVAX's 2020-onwards history into a thin vertical band. Using AVAX's own mainnet launch as origin gives the regression meaningful spread.

Avalanche has only one completed cycle in the sample. The November 2021 peak (~A$155) printed near +2σ. The December 2022 bottom (~A$15) printed near -2σ. The 2024 secondary peak retested the +1σ band. The pattern matches the BTC framework but the regression is noisier than BTC due to the shorter sample.

AVAX uses a unique three-chain architecture (X-Chain for assets, C-Chain for EVM contracts, P-Chain for validators) with sub-second finality. Subnets allow projects to launch their own L1s using AVAX's consensus. The token captures fees across all subnets. The log regression doesn't take a view on the architecture - it simply fits realised price.

December 2022 was AVAX's first cycle bottom (it didn't exist for the 2018 bear). The chart shows AVAX printed near -2σ at the December 2022 low and rallied through fair value during 2023-2024.

CryptoCompare histoday primary, CoinGecko fallback. Hand-curated seed from September 2020 onwards. Auto-refreshes on every Cloudflare Pages build.

About the author

Govind Satoshi
Govind Satoshi
Former Institutional Trader. Founder, SatoshiMacro.
Traded allocated institutional capital at a Sydney proprietary trading firm.