Avalanche (AVAX) logarithmic regression bands (AUD)
Long-run logarithmic regression of Avalanche's AUD price against time since the AVAX mainnet launch (September 2020). Central regression line is fair value; ±1σ and ±2σ bands define overheated and undervalued zones. AVAX has ~5 years of price history covering one full cycle. AUD-native, Updated automatically every day.
Chart
Each gold dot is a Avalanche (AVAX) AUD monthly close. The central gold line is the long-run logarithmic regression of price against time. The dashed lines above and below are ±1σ and ±2σ bands. The white circle marks the most recent month. Hover any point on the chart to see the exact price, fair value, and sigma deviation for that month. Avalanche mainnet launched in September 2020 is the regression origin so the log-log fit is meaningful for this asset (using BTC's 2009 genesis would compress Avalanche (AVAX)'s entire history into a vertical wall).
AVAX historical sigma extremes
| Month | Sigma | Price | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 2021 | +2.40σ | A$168 | 2021 cycle top (Avalanche Rush incentives) |
| December 2021 | +2.25σ | A$151 | 2021 cycle top |
| March 2022 | +2.01σ | A$129 | Secondary peak before the 2022 bear |
| December 2020 | -2.14σ | A$4.08 | Post-launch base before the 2021 rally |
| November 2020 | -1.82σ | A$4.98 | Post-launch base before the 2021 rally |
| October 2020 | -1.67σ | A$5.18 | Lower extreme |
What is logarithmic regression?
Log-log linear regression: take log of price on one axis, log of days-since-launch on the other, fit a straight line. Because crypto assets have appreciated exponentially over their lifetimes, the log-log transformation produces near-linear relationships. The fitted line represents long-run fair value; residual standard deviation defines band widths.
Avalanche cycle context
- Sep 2020 to Nov 2021: launch through first cycle peak. AVAX went from ~A$4 at launch to ~A$155 in 14 months.
- Nov 2021 to Dec 2022: first bear cycle, bottomed near A$15 at the FTX collapse.
- 2023-2024: recovery driven by subnet launches (DeFi Kingdoms, Crabada, gaming projects).
- Late 2024: secondary peak around A$60 in the post-election rally.
Methodology
- Data source. Monthly AVAX/AUD closes from the September 2020 mainnet launch: Yahoo Finance AVAX-USD monthly candles converted at the month-end AUD/USD rate.
- Regression origin. AVAX mainnet launch, September 2020.
- Fit. OLS linear regression on (log10(days), log10(price)).
- Projection. 18 months past latest data point.
- Resilience. Refreshed automatically every day. Each update is checked against a known CoinMarketCap month-end close; if a source fails or the check does not pass, the stored data stays in place and the chart keeps rendering.
Limitations
- One-cycle sample. AVAX has only completed one full cycle. The regression will become more stable as more cycles accumulate.
- Subnet token unlocks. AVAX has had material team and ecosystem token unlocks across 2021-2025. The chart reflects realised price including supply pressure.
- Sigma assumes normal residuals. AVAX's residual distribution has fatter tails than normal.
- Single-asset reasoning. Use alongside Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Season Index for rotation context.
Related tools
- Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD) - reference framework.
- Ethereum Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD)
- Solana Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD)
- XRP Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD)
- Chainlink (LINK) Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD)
- Cardano (ADA) Logarithmic Regression Bands (AUD)
- Bitcoin Dominance Chart
- Altcoin Season Index
- Charts Dashboard - all cycle indicators on one page.
- Crypto CGT Calculator - ATO 50% discount on any AVAX disposal.
Frequently asked questions
Monthly AVAX/AUD price plotted against days since the September 2020 Avalanche mainnet launch on log-log axes. OLS regression fitted; central line represents long-run fair value. ±1σ and ±2σ bands define overheated and undervalued zones.
Log regression requires positive day counts. Using BTC's 2009 genesis compresses AVAX's 2020-onwards history into a thin vertical band. Using AVAX's own mainnet launch as origin gives the regression meaningful spread.
Avalanche has one completed cycle in the sample. The 2021 top reached +2.40σ (November 2021, month-end A$168). The December 2022 bear-market low was -0.74σ, and the deepest readings came just after launch (-2.14σ, December 2020). The March 2024 rally reached +1.29σ. The fitted slope is low (0.14) because AVAX trades not far above its 2020 launch price, so the regression is noisier than Bitcoin's.
AVAX uses a unique three-chain architecture (X-Chain for assets, C-Chain for EVM contracts, P-Chain for validators) with sub-second finality. Subnets allow projects to launch their own L1s using AVAX's consensus. The token captures fees across all subnets. The log regression doesn't take a view on the architecture - it simply fits realised price.
December 2022 was AVAX's first bear-market low (it did not exist in 2018). It printed -0.74σ at a month-end close of A$16.11, below the line but well short of the post-launch lows, and AVAX rallied back above the line into early 2024 (+1.29σ in March 2024).
Monthly AVAX/AUD closes from the September 2020 mainnet launch: Yahoo Finance AVAX-USD monthly candles converted at the month-end AUD/USD rate, checked against a known CoinMarketCap close before every update. Months quoted before mainnet are excluded so they do not distort the fit. Refreshed automatically every day.
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