Bitcoin Analytics · Chart

Bitcoin Investor Tool (2-Year MA Multiplier, AUD)

The Bitcoin Investor Tool (Philip Swift, 2019) - also called the 2-Year MA Multiplier - shows Bitcoin's 2-year moving average plus the 2-year MA multiplied by 5. The space below the 2YMA marks the historical accumulation zone: every completed dip below it (2015, 2018-2019, early 2020 and 2022-2023) was followed by a new all-time high. The space above 2YMA × 5 marks the cycle-top zone, reached only around the December 2017 peak in the AUD data. As of 8 October 2026 BTC trades at 0.88× its 2YMA, in the accumulation zone. AUD-native, computed client-side from daily BTC/AUD closes.

Last updated: 27 September 2026 By Govind Satoshi

Chart

BTC AUD daily price (gold), 2-year moving average (green), 2YMA × 5 (red dashed). Green fill below 2YMA = historical accumulation zone. Red fill above 2YMA × 5 = historical cycle-top zone. Hover any point for the exact price, both MA values, and the current multiplier.

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What zone is Bitcoin in right now?

The classification card in the stats grid shows the current zone, colour-coded. Reference for interpretation:

Bitcoin 2-Year MA Multiplier zones: classification, multiplier range, and historical interpretation.
ZonePrice / 2YMAHistorical interpretation
Cycle top zone≥ 5×Historically rare. Reached only from November 2017 to January 2018, ahead of an 82% decline.
Heating up3× - 5×Late-cycle, above-trend. The early-2021 high peaked here at 4.5×.
Mid cycle1.5× - 3×Mid-cycle BTC-led territory. Most common reading.
Near fair value1× - 1.5×Near long-run trend. Recovery or early-cycle territory.
Accumulation zone< 1×Deep-value zone. Every cycle bottom since 2015 has sat inside it.

Historical zone visits

The "accumulation zone" (price at or below the 2-year moving average) has been visited in five main windows since the first 2YMA reading at the end of 2014:

  • January to November 2015: Post-Mt-Gox bear market. The multiplier bottomed at 0.53 on 14 January 2015.
  • November 2018 to May 2019: Post-ICO-crash bear. Low of 0.59 on 15 December 2018.
  • Late 2019 and March 2020 (briefly): A few short dips, the deepest 0.73 in the 12 March 2020 COVID crash.
  • May 2022 to October 2023: Luna and FTX bear market. Low of 0.46 on 21 November 2022, the deepest reading in the data.
  • January 2026 onward: The current visit. Low so far of 0.64 on 30 June 2026.

Each accumulation-zone visit has been followed by multi-month sustained rallies back above the 2YMA, then eventually to new cycle highs. The "cycle-top zone" (price above 2YMA × 5) has been visited only in:

  • Late 2017: ICO-era cycle peak. BTC traded at or above 5× the 2YMA on 67 days between November 2017 and January 2018, peaking at 9.8× on 16 December 2017.

No other cycle has reached it. The 2021 cycle peaked at 4.5× in February 2021 and the November 2021 high came in at about 2.6×. The 2024-2025 cycle peaked at about 2.5× in March 2024, and the August 2025 all-time high was only about 1.7× the 2YMA. Each cycle has stretched less far above its two-year average, so waiting for the red line has not worked as an exit rule since 2017.

What is the 2-Year MA Multiplier?

The 2-Year MA Multiplier, marketed as the "Bitcoin Investor Tool" by Philip Swift (founder of LookIntoBitcoin), is a simple cycle-zone indicator. The mechanics:

  1. Reference line A: Bitcoin's 730-day (~2 year) simple moving average. Represents long-run trend.
  2. Reference line B: Reference line A multiplied by 5.
  3. Accumulation zone: Price below reference line A. Historically rare, marks cycle bottoms.
  4. Cycle-top zone: Price above reference line B. Historically rarer still, marks cycle peaks.
  5. Multiplier reading: Current price divided by 2YMA. Above 5× = cycle-top zone. Below 1× = accumulation.

The tool's appeal is its mechanical simplicity: just two moving-average-derived lines with clear zone definitions. The lower line has marked every bear-market accumulation window in the AUD data. The upper line has only been touched once, in 2017, and later cycles have peaked progressively further below it.

Methodology

  1. Data source. Daily BTC/AUD closes from January 2013: Bitstamp BTC/USD converted at the daily AUD/USD rate, with Kraken's native BTC/AUD market for the last two years. Refreshed automatically every day. The first 2YMA value falls on 31 December 2014.
  2. 2YMA computation. Trailing 730-day simple moving average computed client-side on every page load.
  3. 2YMA × 5 computation. 2YMA value multiplied by 5 for each day.
  4. Zone fills. SVG rects rendered between price and 2YMA when price ≤ 2YMA (green accumulation fill) and between price and 2YMA × 5 when price ≥ 2YMA × 5 (red distribution fill).
  5. Static-first. If a price source is unreachable, the previous data file is kept and the indicator renders the last good data.

Frequently asked questions

The Bitcoin Investor Tool, also called the 2-Year MA Multiplier, is a long-term Bitcoin cycle indicator published by Philip Swift (LookIntoBitcoin) in 2019. It plots Bitcoin's price alongside two reference lines: the 2-year moving average (green) and the 2-year MA multiplied by 5 (red). When Bitcoin trades BELOW the 2YMA, it is in the historical accumulation zone; every completed visit in the AUD data was followed by a new all-time high. When Bitcoin trades ABOVE the 2YMA × 5, it is in the cycle-top zone; in the AUD data that happened only around the December 2017 peak, which was followed by an 82% decline.

As of 8 October 2026, Bitcoin trades at 0.88× its 2-year moving average of A$134,188, which is the accumulation zone. It has been at or below the 2YMA since January 2026, with a low of 0.64× on 30 June 2026. The zones: above 5× the 2YMA is the cycle-top zone (red). Between 3× and 5× is heating up (orange). Between 1.5× and 3× is mid-cycle (yellow). Between 1× and 1.5× is near fair value (green). Below 1× is the accumulation zone (blue).

Less rare than its reputation. Since the first 2YMA reading on 31 December 2014, Bitcoin has closed at or below the line on 1,302 of 4,300 days (30 percent). The visits cluster in bear markets: most of 2015, November 2018 to May 2019, brief dips in late 2019 and March 2020, May 2022 to October 2023, and the current visit that began in January 2026. Each completed visit was followed by a new all-time high. The stat grid shows the exact day-count for the current dataset.

Very rare. Bitcoin has closed at or above 5× its 2-year moving average on 67 days (1.6 percent of the sample), all between November 2017 and January 2018. The 2021 cycle peaked at 4.5× (February 2021) and the 2024-2025 cycle at about 2.5× (March 2024), so neither reached the red zone. Each cycle has peaked at a lower multiple of the 2YMA than the one before.

Trailing 730-day simple moving average of daily BTC AUD close prices. Each day's 2YMA value is the average of the prior 730 daily closes including that day. The 2YMA × 5 line is simply the 2YMA value multiplied by 5 for each day - the band spacing widens over time as the 2YMA itself rises.

The 2YMA Multiplier is one of the simplest cycle-zone indicators because both reference lines (2YMA and 2YMA × 5) are easy to compute and deterministic. It's useful for long-term DCA investors because the 'below 2YMA' signal is unambiguous and has marked every bear-market accumulation window in the AUD data. The top line has been less useful: only the 2017 peak reached it. Pair with the Pi Cycle Bottom Indicator and Risk Metric for confluence at cycle bottoms.

About the author

Govind Satoshi
Govind Satoshi
Former Institutional Trader. Founder, SatoshiMacro.
Traded allocated institutional capital at a Sydney proprietary trading firm.