Bitcoin Analytics · Chart

Bitcoin Investor Tool (2-Year MA Multiplier, AUD)

The Bitcoin Investor Tool (Philip Swift, 2019) - also called the 2-Year MA Multiplier - shows Bitcoin's 2-year moving average plus the 2-year MA multiplied by 5. The space below the 2YMA marks the historical accumulation zone (every dip below has been a strong long-term entry). The space above 2YMA × 5 marks the historical cycle-top zone (every visit above has preceded a major correction). AUD-native, computed client-side from the daily BTC AUD price seed.

Last updated: 17 May 2026 By Govind Satoshi

Chart

BTC AUD daily price (gold), 2-year moving average (green), 2YMA × 5 (red dashed). Green fill below 2YMA = historical accumulation zone. Red fill above 2YMA × 5 = historical cycle-top zone. Hover any point for the exact price, both MA values, and the current multiplier.

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What zone is Bitcoin in right now?

The classification card in the stats grid shows the current zone, colour-coded. Reference for interpretation:

Bitcoin 2-Year MA Multiplier zones: classification, multiplier range, and historical interpretation.
ZonePrice / 2YMAHistorical interpretation
Cycle top zone≥ 5×Historically rare. Visits in 2017 and 2021 cycle peaks. Every visit has preceded major multi-month correction.
Heating up3× - 5×Late-cycle, above-trend. Typical of pre-top months.
Mid cycle1.5× - 3×Mid-cycle BTC-led territory. Most common reading.
Near fair value1× - 1.5×Near long-run trend. Recovery or early-cycle territory.
Accumulation zone< 1×Historically rare deep-value zone. Has marked every cycle bottom since 2014.

Historical zone visits

The "accumulation zone" (price below the 2-year moving average) has been visited in only four clear windows since 2014:

  • Late 2014 to mid 2015: Post-Mt-Gox bear market accumulation
  • Late 2018 to mid 2019: Post-ICO-crash accumulation
  • March 2020 (briefly): COVID crash flash dip below 2YMA, recovered within weeks
  • Late 2022 to early 2023: Post-FTX-collapse accumulation

Each accumulation-zone visit has been followed by multi-month sustained rallies back above the 2YMA, then eventually to new cycle highs. The "cycle-top zone" (price above 2YMA × 5) has been visited only in:

  • Late 2017: ICO-era cycle peak. BTC briefly traded above 5× the 2YMA in November-December 2017.
  • Early 2021: First 2021 cycle peak. BTC traded above 5× the 2YMA in March 2021 around the A$80,000+ peak.

The November 2021 secondary peak did NOT quite reach 5× the 2YMA, and the 2024-2025 cycle so far has not visited the cycle-top zone either. This is one of several signals that the current cycle may have more upside before historical cycle-top conditions form.

What is the 2-Year MA Multiplier?

The 2-Year MA Multiplier, marketed as the "Bitcoin Investor Tool" by Philip Swift (founder of LookIntoBitcoin), is a simple cycle-zone indicator. The mechanics:

  1. Reference line A: Bitcoin's 730-day (~2 year) simple moving average. Represents long-run trend.
  2. Reference line B: Reference line A multiplied by 5.
  3. Accumulation zone: Price below reference line A. Historically rare, marks cycle bottoms.
  4. Cycle-top zone: Price above reference line B. Historically rarer still, marks cycle peaks.
  5. Multiplier reading: Current price divided by 2YMA. Above 5× = cycle-top zone. Below 1× = accumulation.

The tool's appeal is its mechanical simplicity: just two moving-average-derived lines with clear zone definitions. Both zones have remained empirically meaningful across all three completed Bitcoin cycles (2013-2015, 2017-2019, 2021-2023).

Methodology

  1. Data source. Daily BTC/AUD close prices from January 2014 onwards. CryptoCompare primary + CoinGecko fallback.
  2. 2YMA computation. Trailing 730-day simple moving average computed client-side on every page load.
  3. 2YMA × 5 computation. 2YMA value multiplied by 5 for each day.
  4. Zone fills. SVG rects rendered between price and 2YMA when price ≤ 2YMA (green accumulation fill) and between price and 2YMA × 5 when price ≥ 2YMA × 5 (red distribution fill).
  5. Static-first. If the upstream price source is unreachable, the previous static data file is preserved and the indicator continues to render with last-known-good data.

Frequently asked questions

The Bitcoin Investor Tool, also called the 2-Year MA Multiplier, is a long-term Bitcoin cycle indicator published by Philip Swift (LookIntoBitcoin) in 2019. It plots Bitcoin's price alongside two reference lines: the 2-year moving average (green) and the 2-year MA multiplied by 5 (red). When Bitcoin trades BELOW the 2YMA, it is in the historical accumulation zone - every dip into this zone has been a strong long-term entry across all completed cycles. When Bitcoin trades ABOVE the 2YMA × 5, it is in the historical cycle-top zone - every visit above has preceded a major multi-month correction.

The current zone is shown in the stats grid above the chart, color-coded. Above 5× the 2YMA is the cycle-top zone (red). Between 3× and 5× is the heating-up zone (orange). Between 1.5× and 3× is mid-cycle (yellow). Between 1× and 1.5× is near fair value (green). Below 1× is the accumulation zone (blue). Use the current Price / 2YMA multiplier reading as the primary classification number.

Bitcoin has spent roughly 15-20 percent of days below its 2-year moving average across the post-2014 sample, with the dips clustered in late-bear-market phases: late 2014 to mid 2015, late 2018 to mid 2019, March 2020 COVID crash, and late 2022 post-FTX. Each visit has marked a multi-month accumulation window with strong forward returns. The stat grid shows the exact day-count for the current dataset.

Bitcoin has spent under 3 percent of days above 5× its 2-year moving average across the post-2014 sample. All such days fall inside the 2017 and 2021 cycle peak windows. The 2024-2025 cycle has not (yet) printed above 5× the 2YMA - this is one signal that the current cycle may have more upside before historical cycle-top conditions are reached.

Trailing 730-day simple moving average of daily BTC AUD close prices. Each day's 2YMA value is the average of the prior 730 daily closes including that day. The 2YMA × 5 line is simply the 2YMA value multiplied by 5 for each day - the band spacing widens over time as the 2YMA itself rises.

The 2YMA Multiplier is one of the cleanest cycle-zone indicators because both reference lines (2YMA and 2YMA × 5) are simple to compute, deterministic, and have produced consistent zone-visit patterns across all three completed Bitcoin cycles. It's particularly useful for long-term DCA investors because the 'below 2YMA' signal is unambiguous and historically reliable as a 'good time to accumulate' marker. Pair with the Pi Cycle Bottom Indicator and Risk Metric for confluence at cycle bottoms.

About the author

Govind Satoshi
Govind Satoshi
Former Institutional Trader. Founder, SatoshiMacro.
Traded allocated institutional capital at a Sydney proprietary trading firm.