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Bitcoin Pi Cycle Bottom Indicator (AUD)

The Pi Cycle Bottom Indicator is one of 9 valuation signals in Tier 1 of the SatoshiMacro Model, a free 48-signal Bitcoin cycle confluence indicator. Published by Philip Swift in 2021 as the companion to his Pi Cycle Top, this version marks the end of a bear market when the 150-day moving average crosses back above the 471-day moving average multiplied by 0.745. On AUD prices it has fired 4 times: July 2015, May 2019, March 2023, September 2026. Each came a few months after the price low, so treat it as confirmation rather than a bottom call. AUD-native, computed client-side on every page load from daily BTC/AUD closes.

Last updated: 27 September 2026 By Govind Satoshi

Chart

BTC AUD daily price (gold), 150-day moving average (blue), 471-day moving average × 0.745 (red dashed). Green vertical markers + dots at the top indicate historical bottom-signal firings. Hover any point for the exact price, MA values, and current ratio.

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Has the Pi Cycle Bottom fired recently?

The Pi Cycle Bottom is a rare signal, with one firing per bear market in the AUD data. The most recent firing was on 1 September 2026. The chart marks every historical firing with green vertical dashed lines and a green dot at the top of the line. As of 8 October 2026 the ratio is 1.052, in the Bottom signal forming band. Values above 1.0 mean the 150DMA is back above the 471DMA × 0.745 line; values between 0.9 and 1.0 mean it is close to crossing.

The zone label next to the ratio uses five percentile bands of the ratio's own AUD history since 16 April 2014 (4,559 daily readings), recomputed on every data refresh and shared with the dashboard card, embed widget and preview card:

  • 2.68 and above - Far from bottom: the highest 5 percent of readings, deep into a bull market.
  • 1.95 to 2.68 - Late-cycle: 80th to 95th percentile.
  • 1.43 to 1.95 - Mid cycle: 35th to 80th percentile.
  • 0.96 to 1.43 - Bottom signal forming: 10th to 35th percentile, from just below the 1.0 signal line upward.
  • Below 0.96 - Bottom zone: the lowest 10 percent of readings, with the 150DMA under the signal line.

How the documented cycle tops and bottoms classify under these zones:

How documented Bitcoin cycle tops and bottoms classify on the Pi Cycle Bottom ratio under its percentile zones (AUD data). Tops use the highest reading within 30 days of each top, bottoms the lowest within 60 days.
Cycle turnDateRatioZone
2013 cycle topDecember 2013Not coveredBefore this indicator's history starts
2017 cycle topDecember 20173.05 (10 January 2018)Far from bottom
2021 first peakApril 20212.72 (14 May 2021)Far from bottom
2021 second peak (cycle top)November 20211.79 (10 December 2021)Mid cycle
2015 cycle bottomJanuary 20150.87 (2 March 2015)Bottom zone
2018 cycle bottomDecember 20180.89 (13 February 2019)Bottom zone
2022 cycle bottomNovember 20220.80 (12 November 2022)Bottom zone

Historical Pi Cycle Bottom firings

Bitcoin Pi Cycle Bottom Indicator firings on AUD prices since the 471-day average begins in April 2014. Each firing date is the 150-day MA crossing back above the 471-day MA times 0.745.
Cycle bottomApproximate firing dateBTC AUD context
2015 bear bottom21 July 2015BTC AUD A$375 at firing; the 150DMA had been below the line since January 2015
2018-2019 bear bottom22 May 2019BTC AUD A$11,017 at firing; the 150DMA had been below the line since January 2019
2022-2023 bear bottom24 March 2023BTC AUD A$41,145 at firing; the 150DMA had been below the line since August 2022
Latest bear market1 September 2026BTC AUD A$108,493 at firing; the 150DMA had been below the line since June 2026

At every firing BTC was already trading above its 200-day moving average, which shows how late the signal arrives. The three completed firings were followed by new all-time highs within the next cycle, although the May 2019 firing was followed by a drop below the firing price in March 2020 before that happened. Cross-check with other bottom indicators (Mayer Multiple below 0.6, MVRV Z-Score proxy in its cycle-bottom zone, Fear and Greed below 25).

Pi Cycle Top vs Pi Cycle Bottom: using them together

The two Pi Cycle indicators form a complete cycle-position pair:

  • Pi Cycle TOP (111DMA × 1 vs 350DMA × 2): fires at cycle peaks. On USD prices it has fired at the December 2013, December 2017 and April 2021 highs. On AUD prices the April 2021 crossover never completed (ratio peaked near 0.976), and neither currency signalled the higher November 2021 top.
  • Pi Cycle BOTTOM (150DMA × 1 vs 471DMA × 0.745): fires as bear markets end. AUD firings: 4 (July 2015, May 2019, March 2023, September 2026). Fired in every bear market in the data, but months after the low.

The asymmetry is striking: on AUD prices the bottom signal has fired 4 times against one firing for the top signal over the same period. One reason is that the top signal needs a parabolic move to push the 111DMA to twice the 350DMA, which later cycles have not delivered, while the bottom signal only needs the slow grind of a bear market to drag the 150DMA under its line and back. Use both signals together for full cycle-positioning context: the Pi Cycle Top page shows the top signal's chart and history.

What is the Pi Cycle Bottom Indicator?

The Pi Cycle Bottom is a moving-average crossover indicator developed by Philip Swift (the founder of LookIntoBitcoin) as the companion to his earlier Pi Cycle Top. The mechanics used on this chart:

  1. Component A: Bitcoin's 150-day simple moving average.
  2. Component B: Bitcoin's 471-day simple moving average, multiplied by 0.745.
  3. Signal: Fires when Component A crosses above Component B. Equivalently: when the ratio (150DMA ÷ (471DMA × 0.745)) crosses above 1.0.
  4. Interpretation: A rare moving-average crossover that has confirmed the end of each bear market in the AUD data, a few months after the price low.

The 471-day window is approximately 150 × pi (hence the name "Pi Cycle"). The 0.745 multiplier is an empirical adjustment that makes the crossover line up with historical bottoms. The model is heuristic, not derived from a theoretical first-principles framework.

Methodology

  1. Data source. Daily BTC/AUD closes from January 2013: Bitstamp BTC/USD converted at the daily AUD/USD rate, with Kraken's native BTC/AUD market for the last two years. Refreshed automatically every day. The 471-day average, and so the signal line, starts on 16 April 2014.
  2. 150-day MA. Trailing simple moving average of the last 150 daily closes.
  3. 471-day MA × 0.745. Trailing simple moving average of the last 471 daily closes, multiplied by 0.745.
  4. Firing detection. A firing occurs on the first day the 150DMA value exceeds the 471DMA × 0.745 value after having been at or below it the previous day. Green markers on the chart mark every such crossing.
  5. Resilience. Static-first: the daily BTC AUD data file in the repo is the source of truth. If a price source is unreachable, the previous data file is kept and the indicator renders the last good data.

Limitations

  • Small sample. Only 4 firings in the AUD data since 2014. Statistical confidence in the signal's future reliability is moderate.
  • Heuristic, not theoretical. The 0.745 multiplier and 471-day window were derived empirically by curve-fitting to historical bottoms. The model has no first-principles basis - if Bitcoin's cycle structure changes, the model parameters may need to change too.
  • Confirmation indicator, not leading. The signal fires after the bottom, not before. In the AUD data the firings came four to six months after the price lows. Use as a confirmation of "the bottom is in" rather than a forward forecast.
  • Lagging from MA construction. Both moving averages are trailing, so the signal date lags the actual price low by months, not weeks.
  • Single-indicator reasoning. Use alongside other cycle-bottom indicators for confluence.

Frequently asked questions

The Pi Cycle Bottom Indicator is a mechanical Bitcoin cycle-bottom signal published by Philip Swift as the companion to his earlier Pi Cycle Top. This implementation compares the 150-day moving average with the 471-day moving average multiplied by 0.745. The 150DMA drops below that line during bear markets, and the signal fires when it crosses back above, i.e. when the ratio (150DMA ÷ (471DMA × 0.745)) crosses above 1.0. On AUD prices that has happened 4 times: 21 July 2015, 22 May 2019, 24 March 2023, 1 September 2026.

The chart above shows every historical Pi Cycle Bottom firing with green vertical markers. The most recent firing was on 1 September 2026. The current ratio is 1.052 as of 8 October 2026, which is in the Bottom signal forming band. Values above 1.0 mean the 150DMA is back above the 471DMA × 0.745 signal line, which is the post-bottom state. The zone bands are percentile bands of the ratio's own AUD history since 16 April 2014: the Bottom zone (below 0.96) is the lowest 10 percent of readings and the Far from bottom band (2.68 and above) the highest 5 percent.

Philip Swift derived these specific window lengths empirically by testing which MA combinations cleanly identified Bitcoin's historical cycle bottoms. The 471-day window is the inverse of the 150-day in a Fibonacci-like ratio (150 × pi ≈ 471). The 0.745 multiplier on the 471DMA is the magic adjustment that makes the crossover line up with cycle lows. The Pi Cycle Top uses different windows (111DMA and 350DMA × 2) for symmetric reasons - 350 ≈ 111 × pi. Both indicators are heuristic, not derived from a theoretical model.

The completed record is good but small. Twelve months after the July 2015 firing BTC was up 137 percent in AUD, after the May 2019 firing up 27 percent (with a fall below the firing price during the March 2020 crash in between), and after the March 2023 firing up 148 percent. The latest firing (1 September 2026) has no 12-month record yet. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The signal is best used with other bottom indicators: Mayer Multiple below 0.6, the MVRV Z-Score proxy in its cycle-bottom zone (below 0.08), and Fear and Greed below 25. Cross-reference using the Charts Dashboard before acting on any single signal.

Both indicators use moving average crossovers but on different windows and with opposite interpretations. Pi Cycle TOP: 111DMA × 1 vs 350DMA × 2. Fires when 111DMA crosses above 350DMA × 2 - marks cycle peaks. On AUD prices it has fired once (December 2017). Pi Cycle BOTTOM: 150DMA × 1 vs 471DMA × 0.745. Fires when 150DMA crosses back above 471DMA × 0.745 - marks the end of a bear market. On AUD prices it has fired 4 times. The bottom indicator is less famous than the top but has fired in every bear market in the data.

On AUD prices it has fired 4 times, and every firing came after the price low rather than at it: July 2015 (the low was 14 January 2015, A$210), May 2019 (low 15 December 2018, A$4,401), March 2023 (low 21 November 2022, A$23,595) and September 2026. The lag has been four to six months. It did not fire around the March 2020 COVID crash, because the 150DMA never dropped below the 471DMA × 0.745 line. The underlying parameters (150-day, 471-day, 0.745 multiplier) were reverse-engineered from historical price, so generalisation to future cycles is uncertain. Treat as one input in a broader confluence framework, not a standalone buy trigger.

Every bear market in the AUD data has produced a firing (2015, 2019, 2023 and September 2026), and none has fired outside a bear-market recovery so far. But it confirms bottoms rather than catching them: the firings came four to six months after the price lows, and the March 2020 crash produced no signal at all. The 150DMA dropped below the line in January 2015, January 2019, August 2022 and June 2026, close to or after the lows. Statistical confidence is limited by the small sample; the indicator could fail in a future cycle if Bitcoin's market structure evolves enough to break the moving-average relationship. The SatoshiMacro Model combines Pi Cycle Bottom with 47 other signals across 6 weighted tiers so a single-indicator failure does not compromise the cycle-position read.

Pi Cycle Bottom sits in Tier 1 (Valuation & Cycle Position) of the SatoshiMacro Model at 25 per cent of total composite weight, alongside 8 other valuation signals including its sibling Pi Cycle Top. Each signal is normalised to its own historical percentile rank, then averaged into the tier score. The Pi Cycle Bottom contribution matters most around cycle lows, when the 150/471 ratio is at its lowest; mid-cycle it contributes near-neutral percentile readings and lets the other valuation signals dominate. The tier-averaged score contributes 25 per cent to the final 0-100 SMM composite. Historically all three documented BTC cycle bottoms (2015-01, 2018-12, 2022-11) registered in the SMM Accumulation zone (15-30), with Pi Cycle Bottom firings inside the same windows reinforcing the read.

About the author

Govind Satoshi
Govind Satoshi
Former Institutional Trader. Founder, SatoshiMacro.
Traded allocated institutional capital at a Sydney proprietary trading firm.