Bitcoin days higher than current price (AUD)
For every historical daily close in Bitcoin's AUD price history, how many were higher than today's price? The headline figure tells you what fraction of the past you are currently 'above' in price terms. Pair with the chart: a log-scale BTC AUD line with a gold dashed horizontal line at today's price. Days above the gold line are the days where BTC closed higher than today. Hover any point for the exact close and the difference vs today.
Chart
Log-scale BTC AUD price from 2014 to today with a gold dashed line at today's price. Days above the gold line are the days where BTC closed higher than today. Hover any point for the exact close and the difference vs today.
What is Bitcoin's current price percentile?
The percentile rank in the stats grid above is the live figure. Interpretation reference:
- 0-20: Bitcoin is sitting in the bottom fifth of its historical AUD distribution. Capitulation / cycle-bottom zone. Historically rare - typically associated with bear-market lows.
- 20-40: Below historical median. Early-cycle accumulation zone.
- 40-60: Mid-cycle. Price action consistent with consolidation or early-stage trend phases.
- 60-80: Above historical median but not yet at extremes. Mid-to-late bull territory.
- 80-100: Top quintile of historical distribution. Late-cycle distribution or cycle-top zone. The most recent visit was the cycle peaks of 2017, 2021, and 2024-2025.
How to interpret the days-higher figure
The raw count and the percentile rank are two views of the same metric:
- Raw days higher count. Useful for "how many specific days were better entries than today". When this is 0, BTC is at a fresh ATH.
- Percentile rank. Useful for cycle-context. Normalises across dataset size so a 75th-percentile reading in 2026 means the same as a 75th-percentile reading in 2020 in terms of how 'unusually high' the current price is.
- % of ATH. Complementary metric. Shows current price as a percentage of the all-time high. A high days-higher count combined with a low % of ATH is a deep bear-market signal.
The metric is intentionally simple - it makes no assumptions about cycle phase, trend, or future direction. It just asks: "where does today's price sit in the distribution of every prior daily close?"
Days higher vs profitable days
| Metric | Question answered | High value means | Low value means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Days higher than today | How many past closes were greater than today's price? | Today's price is low relative to history (potentially undervalued) | Today's price is high relative to history (potentially overvalued) |
| Days profitable to hold from | What % of past buyers are currently in profit? | Most historical buyers are profitable (BTC has rallied strongly from most prior levels) | Many historical buyers are underwater (BTC is at or below most prior closes) |
The two metrics are mathematically mirror images: days higher + days profitable + days equal = total days. But they frame the same data from different angles. Days higher is cycle-positioning; profitable days is buyer-experience. Use both for a fuller picture: a low percentile rank + low profitable-days reading is the deepest-bear signal (BTC is below most prior closes AND most prior buyers are underwater).
Methodology
- Inputs. Daily BTC AUD closes from
/assets/data/btc-aud-daily.jsoncovering January 2014 onwards. - Days higher. Count of historical daily closes where close > today's close.
- Percentile rank. (total_days - days_higher) / total_days × 100. Equivalent to expressing today's price as a percentile of all historical closes.
- Chart. Log-scale price line + horizontal dashed line at today's close. The visual area above the gold line is the days-higher set.
- Static-first. If the upstream data source is unreachable, the existing daily file is preserved.
Related tools
- Bitcoin Profitable Days (AUD) - the mirror metric (buyer-profitability framing).
- Bitcoin Drawdown From ATH (AUD) - cycle position via % below running ATH.
- Bitcoin Mayer Multiple (AUD) - cycle position via price ÷ 200DMA.
- Bitcoin Risk Metric (AUD) - 0-1 cycle positioning score.
- Bitcoin Yearly Highs and Lows (AUD) - per-year peak/trough/return.
- Charts Dashboard - all cycle indicators on one page.
Frequently asked questions
It's the count of historical Bitcoin AUD daily closes that were higher than the current price. If the figure is 0, today's price is a new all-time high (no day was ever higher). If the figure is the maximum, today's price is the all-time low (every day was higher). The metric is a cycle-position indicator: a low days-higher count means BTC is sitting near or at its peak; a high count means BTC is currently undervalued relative to most of its history.
Percentile rank = (total days - days higher than today) / total days × 100. It expresses the days-higher count as a 0-100 score where 100 = at all-time high and 0 = at all-time low. The percentile-rank card above the chart is colour-coded: green (under 40 percent) = undervalued cycle zone, lime (40-60) = mid-cycle, yellow (60-80) = late-cycle, red (over 80) = cycle-top zone. The headline reading is recomputed live on every page load.
Profitable days = days where buying then and holding to today = profit. Days higher = days where the BTC AUD close was greater than today. Mathematically these are mirror images: profitable days + days higher = total days. But they answer different questions. Profitable days is a 'how forgiving has Bitcoin been to holders' metric. Days higher is a 'where does today's price sit in the historical distribution' metric. The two cards are complementary, not duplicate.
Not necessarily. Days higher = 0 means Bitcoin is at or near a new all-time high, which is common during bull markets and is the only time the metric reaches that floor. It's a signal that the cycle has advanced beyond all prior peaks, which can mean (a) breakout into a new cycle high (continuation) or (b) cycle top forming (reversal). Pair with Mayer Multiple, Pi Cycle Top, and Risk Metric to distinguish the two. Bitcoin spends roughly 8-10 percent of its time within 10 percent of ATH.
The deepest percentile-rank troughs historically have been around 15-25 percent, hit during the worst phases of the 2014-2015 (Mt. Gox aftermath), 2018-2019 (post-ICO bear), and 2022-2023 (FTX collapse) bear markets. At those moments, roughly 75-85 percent of all prior BTC AUD closes were higher than the then-current price. The metric recovers quickly into the next cycle - it typically returns above 60 percent percentile rank within 12-18 months of a cycle bottom.
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