Bitcoin drawdown from all-time high (AUD)
How far Bitcoin trades below its running all-time high in AUD, day by day. Days when BTC closes at a new ATH register 0%; the gap fills downward during corrections and bear markets. The chart shows the full drawdown history from 2014 onwards. Hover any point for the exact price, ATH at that time, and percentage drawdown. Useful for sentiment, cycle-phase, and risk-management framing - bear markets historically last 12-24 months before Bitcoin recovers to a new high.
Chart
Bitcoin's percentage decline from its running all-time high in AUD, day by day from 2014 onwards. The dashed gold line at 0% marks days at a new ATH. Below: every cycle's drawdown trough. Hover any point for the exact price, ATH at that time, and drawdown percentage.
What is Bitcoin's current drawdown from ATH?
The current drawdown is shown in the stats grid at the top of the chart. Interpretation reference:
- 0% to -10%: Bitcoin near or at ATH. Strong cycle position. Typical of bull-market progression.
- -10% to -30%: Moderate correction. Common during bull markets - every cycle since 2014 has had multiple -20%+ corrections inside the broader uptrend.
- -30% to -50%: Significant correction. Late-cycle distribution or early-bear territory.
- -50% to -70%: Deep bear market. Cycle-bottom approaching.
- -70%+: Cycle-bottom zone. All three completed cycles have bottomed in -70% to -85% range.
Bitcoin's deepest historical drawdowns
| Cycle bottom | Trough date | Drawdown depth | Trough BTC AUD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-2015 bear | January 2015 | ~-85% | ~A$300 |
| 2018-2019 bear | December 2018 | ~-83% | ~A$4,500 |
| 2020 COVID crash | March 2020 | ~-53% (flash dip) | ~A$6,800 |
| 2022-2023 bear | November 2022 | ~-83% | ~A$23,000 |
The clustering at ~-85% across three of the four major drawdowns is striking - Bitcoin's cycle-bottom depths have been remarkably consistent across very different absolute price levels (A$300 in 2015, A$23,000 in 2022). The March 2020 COVID dip was shallower because it was a macro-driven flash crash, not a cycle-bottom in the technical sense; the broader 2018-2019 bear and 2022-2023 bear were both ~-83% from the prior cycle peak.
How long does Bitcoin take to recover?
Recovery time = days from cycle-bottom to new all-time high. The pattern has been compressing across cycles:
- 2015 → 2017: Approximately 24 months from January 2015 bottom (~A$300) to January 2017 new ATH (~A$1,500).
- 2018 → 2020: Approximately 23 months from December 2018 bottom (~A$4,500) to November 2020 new ATH (~A$26,000).
- 2022 → 2024: Approximately 16 months from November 2022 bottom (~A$23,000) to March 2024 new ATH (~A$110,000).
The compression reflects Bitcoin's maturing market structure: institutional inflows (ETFs from January 2024), more developed derivatives markets, and faster information-flow into prices. Future recovery times may continue to compress, though the cycle structure itself (4-year halving rhythm + multi-month bear bottoming) remains broadly intact.
Methodology
- Drawdown calculation. For each daily close, drawdown = (close / running_max - 1) × 100. The running max is the highest close from genesis through that day.
- Data source. Daily BTC AUD closes from January 2014 onwards. CryptoCompare primary + CoinGecko fallback.
- Recovery times. Measured as days from local-minimum drawdown date to next 0% drawdown day (i.e., new ATH).
- Static-first. If the upstream source is unreachable, the previous data file is preserved.
Related tools
- Bitcoin Yearly Highs and Lows (AUD) - per-year peak and trough.
- Bitcoin Monthly Returns Heatmap (AUD) - month-by-month colour-coded returns.
- Bitcoin Mayer Multiple (AUD) - cycle position via price ÷ 200DMA.
- Bitcoin Risk Metric (AUD) - 0-1 cycle score.
- Drawdown Recovery Calculator - the math of recovering from any drawdown size.
- Charts Dashboard - all cycle indicators on one page.
Frequently asked questions
The current drawdown is shown in the stats grid above the chart, colour-coded. Green = within 10% of ATH (strong cycle position). Yellow = 10-30% below ATH (moderate correction). Red = more than 30% below ATH (typical of late-bear conditions). The current reading reflects the gap between Bitcoin's latest close and the highest close it has ever printed in AUD terms.
Bitcoin's deepest drawdown in AUD terms was approximately -85 percent, printed in January 2015 (Mt. Gox aftermath bear bottom) and again in December 2018 (post-ICO bear bottom). Other notable drawdowns: -83% in November 2022 (FTX collapse low), -53% in March 2020 (COVID crash flash low, recovered within weeks), -73% in December 2018 (matching the 2015 level). The deepest-drawdown card in the stats grid shows the exact figure for the current dataset and which day it occurred.
Bitcoin's recovery time to a new all-time high has averaged roughly 18-24 months across the three completed cycles. Specific recoveries: from the January 2015 cycle bottom (~A$300) BTC reclaimed its $1,200 USD ATH by January 2017 (~24 months). From the December 2018 bottom (~A$4,500) BTC reclaimed the ~A$25,000 2017 high by November 2020 (~23 months). From the November 2022 bottom (~A$23,000) BTC reclaimed the November 2021 ATH (~A$94,000) by March 2024 (~16 months). Recovery times have been compressing as Bitcoin's market matures.
Across approximately 4,400 days of post-2014 Bitcoin AUD history, Bitcoin has closed at a new all-time high on roughly 350-450 days (~8-10 percent of the sample). This means Bitcoin spends roughly 90 percent of its time below its running ATH - even during bull markets, most days print below the recent peak before the next ATH. The 'days at ATH' card in the stats grid shows the exact count for the current dataset.
Industry convention is a drawdown of 20% or more from peak. Bitcoin has entered drawdowns of 20%+ frequently (typically 2-4 times per cycle), but the major 'cycle bear markets' have been the ones reaching -70% or deeper: 2014-2015 (-85%), 2018-2019 (-83%), and 2022-2023 (-83%). The -50% threshold marks 'deep bear' territory and has been visited only during cycle-bottom phases. The stat grid shows how many days the current dataset has been below the -50% threshold.
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