Bitcoin profitable days (AUD)
For every historical daily close in Bitcoin's AUD price history, was buying that day a profitable trade if you simply held to today? The headline figure is the percentage of all historical days where holding to today produced a positive return. The chart plots the full BTC AUD price line and colours each daily segment green (profitable to have bought that day) or red (unprofitable - that day's close is above today's price). Hover any day for the exact close and return-to-today.
Chart
Log-scale BTC AUD price from January 2013 to today. Each daily segment is coloured green if buying that day was profitable (its close is below today's price) or red if it was not (its close was at or above today's price). The gold dashed line marks today's price. Red zones cluster around cycle peaks that today's price hasn't yet reclaimed. Hover any day for the exact close and return-to-today.
What "profitable days" actually measures
The metric answers a single question: if I had bought BTC at a random historical daily close and held to today, what's the probability I'm currently profitable?
Mathematically:
- For each historical daily close in BTC AUD history (5,029 days from January 2013)
- Check: is today's BTC AUD price higher than that day's close?
- Profitable days % = (count of profitable days / total days) × 100
The result is a single percentage that captures how forgiving Bitcoin's historical price action has been to long-term holders. It is NOT a cycle-position indicator - it backward-looks at every buyer in history rather than forward-looking at cycle phase. Pair it with Mayer Multiple, Risk Metric, or Pi Cycle Bottom for cycle context.
How to read the chart
The chart is the full BTC AUD price line on a log scale from January 2013. The gold dashed horizontal line is today's price. Every daily segment is coloured:
- Green if that day's close was below the gold line. Buying that day and holding to today is currently profitable.
- Red if that day's close was at or above the gold line. Buying that day is currently underwater - you'd need BTC to climb past those prior peaks for these positions to break even.
Red zones can only appear where a past close is at or above today's price, so they sit around the highest peaks in the data. At today's A$118,282 that means the December 2024 and August 2025 highs and the weeks around them. The exact red-vs-green split is the headline percentage in the stats grid above.
Bitcoin's long-run AUD trend has left the 2013-2020 price band far below anything traded since, so the early years of the chart are solid green unless the price collapses below A$38,000, the highest close before 2021. The most recent peak window is usually partly red because today's price tends to sit near the latest cycle high.
By cycle: 2014-2017, 2018-2020, 2021-2024
| Entry period | Highest daily close in period | Share of days profitable today | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 - 2016 | Nov 2013 (A$1,246) | 100% | Every close in this window is a small fraction of later prices. |
| 2017 - 2018 | Dec 2017 (A$25,033) | 100% | The December 2017 peak was reclaimed in November 2020. |
| 2019 - 2020 | Dec 2020 (A$37,952) | 100% | March 2020 COVID lows near A$7,500 sit in this window. |
| 2021 - 2022 | Nov 2021 (A$91,345) | 100% | The November 2021 peak was reclaimed on 28 February 2024. |
| 2023 | December 2023 (A$67,020) | 100% | Post-FTX recovery year. |
| 2024 | December 2024 (A$166,805) | 86% | ETF-approval and halving year. |
| 2025 | August 2025 (A$187,780) | 0% | Contains the all-time high close. |
| 2026 to date | January 2026 (A$144,993) | 83% | Moves with the live price. |
How long buyers at the top waited: the November 2013 high of A$1,246 took about 37 months to reclaim (December 2016), the December 2017 high of A$25,033 about 35 months (November 2020), and the November 2021 high of A$91,345 about 28 months (February 2024). The currently underwater days belong to the 2024-2026 window, around the August 2025 all-time high of A$187,780.
Methodology
- Inclusion. Every daily close in the BTC AUD daily file from 1 January 2013 through today.
- Profitability test. For each historical day d, day d is "profitable" if BTC_AUD_today > BTC_AUD_close(d).
- Headline metric. Profitable days / total days × 100. Single live figure recomputed on every page load.
- Chart colouring. Each daily segment is drawn in green if that day's close is below today's price, red if it is at or above. A second SVG path keeps the visual line unbroken across colour transitions.
- Data source. Daily BTC/AUD closes from January 2013: Bitstamp BTC/USD converted at the daily AUD/USD rate, with Kraken's native BTC/AUD market for the last two years. Refreshed automatically every day. If a price source is unreachable, the previous data file is kept and the chart renders the last good data.
Related tools
- Bitcoin Drawdown From All-Time High (AUD) - how far below ATH BTC trades day by day.
- Bitcoin Yearly Highs and Lows (AUD) - per-year peak, trough, and return.
- Bitcoin Monthly Returns Heatmap (AUD) - month-by-month colour-coded returns.
- Bitcoin Mayer Multiple (AUD) - cycle position via price ÷ 200DMA.
- Bitcoin Risk Metric (AUD) - 0-1 cycle score.
- Charts Dashboard - all cycle indicators on one page.
Frequently asked questions
It is the percentage of historical days where buying BTC at that day's close and holding to today would be profitable. The metric counts each daily close since January 2013 and asks: is today's BTC AUD price higher than that day's close? As of 8 October 2026 the answer is yes for 4,564 of 5,029 days, or 90.8 percent, even with BTC 37.0 percent below its all-time high. Measured as it stood on each past day since 2015, the reading has had a median of about 93 percent and has been at or above 90 percent on 60 percent of days.
Yes, but only on days when Bitcoin closes at a new all-time high. The figure mathematically reaches (almost) 100% on the exact day BTC closes at its highest-ever AUD price, because every prior close is lower. It then starts dropping as soon as BTC pulls back, because the days near the peak become underwater if held to today. Bitcoin has closed at a new high on 245 of 5,029 days since January 2013.
At today's price of A$118,282, the share of days in each period that are profitable to hold today is: 2013-2016 100%, 2017-2018 100%, 2019-2020 100%, 2021-2022 100%, 2023 100%, 2024 86%, 2025 0% and 2026 to date 83%. Red segments on the chart mark the days that closed at or above today's price. They cluster around the most recent highs (the December 2024 and August 2025 peaks), which hold the highest closes in the data.
Measured as it stood on each day, the lowest reading was about 35 percent in August 2015, when the data held only two and a half years of history and most of it sat above the 2015 price. Since then the lows have been much higher: about 76 percent in February 2019, 73 percent in the March 2020 COVID crash, 79 percent in January 2023 after the FTX collapse, and 83 percent in June 2026. Each new bear market has bottomed above most of the earlier price history, which is why the floor keeps rising.
Rainbow Chart and Mayer Multiple are cycle-position indicators (where Bitcoin is in its cycle right now relative to a long-term trendline or moving average). Profitable days is a historical-buyer-experience metric: it tells you what fraction of all prior buyers are currently above water. The two answer different questions. Use Mayer Multiple or Risk Metric for cycle positioning; use profitable days as a 'has dollar-cost averaging worked?' or sentiment-anchor metric.
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