Bitcoin Puell Multiple chart (AUD-native)
The Puell Multiple plots daily Bitcoin issuance value divided by the 365-day moving average of the same. Coined by David Puell (2019), it has historically signalled cycle bottoms below 0.5 and cycle tops above 4. The ratio cancels currency, so the AUD-native computation here matches Glassnode's USD-native reading to within FX-noise. Five cycle-position bands are overlaid: bottom zone (green) below 0.5, undervalued (lime) 0.5-0.8, mid cycle (yellow) 0.8-1.5, late cycle (orange) 1.5-3.0, cycle top (red) above 3.0. Hover any day for the exact reading, the daily AUD issuance, and the 365-day MA.
Chart
Log-scale Puell Multiple from 2015 onwards (365-day MA warm-up means the series starts a year after BTC AUD data). Five colour-coded cycle-position bands overlaid: green (under 0.5, cycle-bottom), lime (0.5-0.8, undervalued), yellow (0.8-1.5, mid cycle), orange (1.5-3.0, late cycle), red (above 3.0, cycle-top). Hover any day for the exact Puell value, AUD daily issuance, and 365-day MA.
What is the Puell Multiple?
The Puell Multiple is a Bitcoin cycle-position indicator coined by David Puell in 2019 and popularised through the LookIntoBitcoin and Glassnode dashboards. The formula is:
Puell Multiple = Daily Issuance Value / 365-day MA of Daily Issuance Value
Where:
- Daily issuance value = (block subsidy in BTC) × (144 blocks per day) × (BTC price in any currency)
- 365-day MA = the trailing one-year average of the same daily issuance value series
The metric measures whether miners are earning above or below their trailing one-year average revenue from new BTC issuance (it excludes fees, which are tracked separately by the Miner Revenue chart). Above-trend issuance means high price relative to the past year; below-trend means low price relative to the past year. The 365-day window is long enough to span both pre- and post-halving issuance levels for cycles after the first halving.
How to read the bands
| Band | Range | Historical interpretation | Typical context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cycle bottom | < 0.5 | Deep miner capitulation, generational buy zone | Late 2014, late 2018, March 2020, late 2022 |
| Undervalued | 0.5 - 0.8 | Below trend, miner-stress zone | Mid-to-late bear markets, post-halving accumulation |
| Mid cycle | 0.8 - 1.5 | Around trend, neutral | Sideways consolidation, transition phases |
| Late cycle | 1.5 - 3.0 | Above trend, distribution warming | Mid-to-late bull markets, miner exuberance |
| Cycle top | > 3.0 | Distribution / cycle-top zone | 2013, late 2017, early 2021, late 2021, 2024-2025 |
The bands are heuristics, not signals. Use Puell as one of multiple cycle indicators (alongside Mayer Multiple, Pi Cycle, MVRV Z-Score, 200-Week MA Heatmap). When 3+ indicators agree, the signal is much more reliable than any single metric.
Historical cycle signals
Sub-0.5 Puell printings have historically been the cleanest cycle-bottom signal Bitcoin produces. The four major instances:
- Late 2014 - early 2015. Puell dropped below 0.5 during the post-Mt. Gox capitulation. The 2015 spot price bottomed at A$220 in January 2015.
- Late 2018 - early 2019. Post-ICO bear. Puell printed below 0.5 from approximately November 2018 through to April 2019. Spot bottomed at A$4,800 in December 2018.
- March 2020. Puell briefly dipped below 0.5 during the COVID crash. Spot bottomed at A$6,400. This was the shortest sub-0.5 window in BTC's history.
- Late 2022 - early 2023. Post-FTX collapse. Puell below 0.5 from June 2022 through to February 2023, deepest at approximately 0.35 in late November 2022. Spot bottomed at A$24,700 in November 2022.
Above-3.0 printings have similarly bracketed cycle tops within 1-2 months:
- December 2017. Puell peaked above 7. Spot BTC topped at A$25,000 in mid-December.
- February 2021 and November 2021. Puell broke 3.0 in both halves of the double-top cycle.
- 2024-2025 cycle peak. Most recent above-3.0 reading aligned with the spot cycle peak.
Methodology
- Inputs. BTC AUD daily close prices from
/assets/data/btc-aud-daily.json+ Bitcoin halving schedule (50/25/12.5/6.25/3.125 BTC subsidy across genesis/2012/2016/2020/2024). - Daily issuance. subsidy(date) × 144 blocks/day × AUD close.
- 365-day MA. Trailing simple moving average over the daily issuance series. The first 365 days of the series have null MA (warm-up period).
- Puell Multiple. Daily issuance / 365-day MA. Computed for every day after the warm-up.
- Currency invariance. The ratio cancels the currency factor exactly, so AUD-derived Puell matches USD-derived Puell to within rounding. Glassnode publishes the USD series.
- Static-first. The Puell snapshot file is re-derived on every build by scripts/fetch-btc-puell.mjs against the latest BTC AUD daily file. If the AUD daily file is stale or missing, the existing Puell snapshot is preserved.
Related tools
- Bitcoin Miner Revenue - daily total miner revenue (subsidy + fees), the gross-revenue version of Puell.
- Bitcoin Hashrate - the second mining-economy indicator that pairs with Puell.
- Bitcoin Mayer Multiple - price / 200DMA, a similar normalised-cycle metric on price.
- Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top - 111DMA / 350DMA × 2 crossover signal.
- Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score (AUD) - on-chain proxy for realised value vs market value.
- Charts Dashboard - all cycle indicators on one page.
Frequently asked questions
The Puell Multiple is daily Bitcoin issuance value divided by the 365-day moving average of the same. Daily issuance value = (block subsidy in BTC) × (144 blocks per day) × (BTC price). The ratio measures whether miners are earning above or below their trailing one-year average. Coined by David Puell in 2019 and popularised through LookIntoBitcoin / Glassnode. Below 0.5 has historically marked cycle bottoms; above 4 has marked cycle tops.
Yes, exactly the same as in USD. Puell is a ratio: (daily issuance value) / (365DMA of daily issuance value). Both numerator and denominator are in whichever currency you pick. The currency factor cancels out in the division. So an AUD-native Puell calculation produces the same number as a USD-native one to within rounding. The chart on this page is computed in AUD against the existing daily BTC AUD price series, but Glassnode's USD Puell will read the same value on any given day.
Mayer Multiple = price / 200DMA(price). Puell Multiple = daily issuance / 365DMA(daily issuance). Mayer is purely a price metric; Puell is a miner-revenue metric. Both are normalised against a moving average so they translate the same underlying price action into different framings: Mayer asks 'is price stretched vs trend' and Puell asks 'are miners earning above trend'. They tend to peak and trough together but Puell is more sensitive to halving events (the block subsidy step-down cuts daily issuance in half, which mechanically pushes Puell lower for the year following any halving).
Daily issuance is block_subsidy × 144 × price. When the subsidy halves (e.g. from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC at the April 2024 halving), daily issuance drops by 50 percent at the same price. The 365-day MA is averaged across both the pre-halving and post-halving issuance levels, so it lags. The ratio (current / MA) therefore drops mechanically by ~30-40 percent in the months immediately after each halving. This is a known artefact and is one reason interpretations of Puell during halving years are more cautious. Use multiple cycle indicators (Mayer, Pi Cycle, MVRV Z-Score) when Puell is near a halving boundary.
The most recent extended period below 0.5 was the 2022-2023 bear market trough following the FTX collapse. Puell printed below 0.5 from approximately late June 2022 through to February 2023, with a deepest trough near 0.35 in late November 2022. Prior sub-0.5 periods: late 2014 (Mt. Gox aftermath), late 2018 to early 2019 (post-ICO bear), and March 2020 (COVID crash, briefly). Each one was a generational accumulation window.
The most recent print above 3.0 was the 2024-2025 cycle peak. Prior visits above 3.0 occurred during the 2017 cycle top (December 2017, peaked above 7), the 2021 double-top (February 2021 and November 2021), and the 2013 cycle top. Puell readings above 3.0 are rare: historically only ~8 percent of all days have spent above this level. Combined with Mayer above 2.4 and Pi Cycle Top firing, they reliably bracket cycle peaks within 1-2 months.
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