Bitcoin Puell Multiple chart (AUD-native)
The Puell Multiple plots daily Bitcoin issuance value divided by the 365-day moving average of the same. Coined by David Puell (2019), it has historically signalled cycle bottoms below 0.5 and cycle tops above 3 to 4. In the AUD data it went above 4 only in January 2014 and December 2017, and below 0.5 in January 2015, late 2018 and mid-2022. The ratio largely cancels currency, so the AUD-native computation here tracks Glassnode's USD-native reading closely, though not exactly. Five cycle-position bands are overlaid: bottom zone (green) below 0.5, undervalued (lime) 0.5-0.8, mid cycle (yellow) 0.8-1.5, late cycle (orange) 1.5-3.0, cycle top (red) above 3.0. Hover any day for the exact reading, the daily AUD issuance, and the 365-day MA.
Chart
Log-scale Puell Multiple from 31 December 2013 (the 365-day MA warm-up means the series starts a year after the BTC AUD data begins in January 2013). Five colour-coded cycle-position bands overlaid: green (under 0.5, cycle-bottom), lime (0.5-0.8, undervalued), yellow (0.8-1.5, mid cycle), orange (1.5-3.0, late cycle), red (above 3.0, cycle-top). Hover any day for the exact Puell value, AUD daily issuance, and 365-day MA.
What is the Puell Multiple?
The Puell Multiple is a Bitcoin cycle-position indicator coined by David Puell in 2019 and popularised through the LookIntoBitcoin and Glassnode dashboards. The formula is:
Puell Multiple = Daily Issuance Value / 365-day MA of Daily Issuance Value
Where:
- Daily issuance value = (block subsidy in BTC) × (144 blocks per day) × (BTC price in any currency)
- 365-day MA = the trailing one-year average of the same daily issuance value series
The metric measures whether miners are earning above or below their trailing one-year average revenue from new BTC issuance (it excludes fees, which are tracked separately by the Miner Revenue chart). Above-trend issuance means high price relative to the past year; below-trend means low price relative to the past year. The 365-day window is long enough to span both pre- and post-halving issuance levels for cycles after the first halving.
How to read the bands
| Band | Range | Historical interpretation | Typical context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cycle bottom | < 0.5 | Deep miner capitulation, generational buy zone | January 2015, late 2018, June-July 2022 |
| Undervalued | 0.5 - 0.8 | Below trend, miner-stress zone | Mid-to-late bear markets, post-halving accumulation |
| Mid cycle | 0.8 - 1.5 | Around trend, neutral | Sideways consolidation, transition phases |
| Late cycle | 1.5 - 3.0 | Above trend, distribution warming | Mid-to-late bull markets, miner exuberance |
| Cycle top | > 3.0 | Distribution / cycle-top zone | January 2014, late 2017, February-March 2021 |
The bands are heuristics, not signals. Use Puell as one of multiple cycle indicators (alongside Mayer Multiple, Pi Cycle, MVRV Z-Score, 200-Week MA Heatmap). When 3+ indicators agree, the signal is much more reliable than any single metric.
Historical cycle signals
Sub-0.5 Puell printings have been rare and have lined up with bear-market lows. The instances in the AUD data:
- January 2015. Eight days below 0.5, low 0.38 on 14 January 2015, the same day BTC closed at its A$210 post-Mt-Gox bottom.
- Late November to mid December 2018. Low 0.41 on 15 December 2018, the day BTC closed at its A$4,401 bear-market bottom.
- March 2020. Puell did not break 0.5; it bottomed at 0.61 on 12 March 2020 as BTC closed at A$7,473. It dropped to 0.53 after the May 2020 halving, a mechanical effect of the subsidy cut.
- June-July 2022. Low 0.45 on 18 June 2022 during the Luna and Three Arrows Capital sell-off. The November 2022 FTX low (A$23,595) came with Puell at 0.52, just above the line.
Above-3.0 printings came near the first two cycle tops and early in 2021, but not at the last two tops:
- December 2017. Puell peaked at 5.70 on 16 December 2017, the day of BTC's A$25,033 peak close.
- February-March 2021. Briefly above 3.0 (peak 3.12 on 21 February 2021). The November 2021 top only reached 1.67.
- 2024-2025 cycle. Peaked at 2.11 (March 2024) and never reached 3.0. The halved subsidy keeps a lid on daily issuance value, so a lower peak each cycle is what the maths implies.
Methodology
- Inputs. BTC AUD daily close prices from
/assets/data/btc-aud-daily.json(Bitstamp BTC/USD converted at the daily AUD/USD rate, with Kraken's native BTC/AUD market for the last two years; refreshed automatically every day) + Bitcoin halving schedule (50/25/12.5/6.25/3.125 BTC subsidy across genesis/2012/2016/2020/2024). - Daily issuance. subsidy(date) × 144 blocks/day × AUD close.
- 365-day MA. Trailing simple moving average over the daily issuance series. The first 365 days of the series have null MA (warm-up period).
- Puell Multiple. Daily issuance / 365-day MA. Computed for every day after the warm-up.
- Currency invariance. The ratio cancels the currency factor exactly, so AUD-derived Puell matches USD-derived Puell to within rounding. Glassnode publishes the USD series.
- Static-first. The Puell snapshot file is re-derived on every build by scripts/fetch-btc-puell.mjs against the latest BTC AUD daily file. If the AUD daily file is stale or missing, the existing Puell snapshot is preserved.
Related tools
- Bitcoin Miner Revenue - daily total miner revenue (subsidy + fees), the gross-revenue version of Puell.
- Bitcoin Hashrate - the second mining-economy indicator that pairs with Puell.
- Bitcoin Mayer Multiple - price / 200DMA, a similar normalised-cycle metric on price.
- Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top - 111DMA / 350DMA × 2 crossover signal.
- Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score (AUD) - on-chain proxy for realised value vs market value.
- Charts Dashboard - all cycle indicators on one page.
Frequently asked questions
The Puell Multiple is daily Bitcoin issuance value divided by the 365-day moving average of the same. Daily issuance value = (block subsidy in BTC) × (144 blocks per day) × (BTC price). The ratio measures whether miners are earning above or below their trailing one-year average. Coined by David Puell in 2019 and popularised through LookIntoBitcoin / Glassnode. Below 0.5 has historically marked cycle bottoms; above 3 to 4 has marked cycle tops, though the 2021 and 2024-2025 cycles peaked lower.
Almost. Puell is a ratio: (daily issuance value) / (365DMA of daily issuance value). Both numerator and denominator are in whichever currency you pick, so the currency mostly cancels. It does not cancel exactly, because the 365-day average spans a year of different AUD/USD rates. This chart also uses a fixed 144 blocks a day rather than the actual number of blocks mined, so readings will differ a little from Glassnode's USD Puell on any given day. The cycle shape and the extremes line up.
Mayer Multiple = price / 200DMA(price). Puell Multiple = daily issuance / 365DMA(daily issuance). Mayer is purely a price metric; Puell is a miner-revenue metric. Both are normalised against a moving average so they translate the same underlying price action into different framings: Mayer asks 'is price stretched vs trend' and Puell asks 'are miners earning above trend'. They tend to peak and trough together but Puell is more sensitive to halving events (the block subsidy step-down cuts daily issuance in half, which mechanically pushes Puell lower for the year following any halving).
Daily issuance is block_subsidy × 144 × price. When the subsidy halves (e.g. from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC at the April 2024 halving), daily issuance drops by 50 percent at the same price. The 365-day MA is averaged across both the pre-halving and post-halving issuance levels, so it lags. The ratio (current / MA) therefore roughly halves overnight at each halving (on this chart it went from 1.04 to 0.53 across the May 2020 halving) and recovers only as the 365-day average rolls down over the following year. This is a known artefact and is one reason interpretations of Puell during halving years are more cautious. Use multiple cycle indicators (Mayer, Pi Cycle, MVRV Z-Score) when Puell is near a halving boundary.
In the AUD data Puell has been below 0.5 in three windows: January 2015 (low 0.38 on 14 January), late November to mid December 2018 (low 0.41 on 15 December) and June-July 2022 (low 0.45 on 18 June, during the Luna and Three Arrows Capital sell-off). It did not break 0.5 in the March 2020 crash (low 0.61) or at the November 2022 FTX low (0.52). Only 1.0 percent of days have been below 0.5. The latest decline bottomed at 0.59 in February 2026.
The most recent print above 3.0 was March 2021, after a peak of 3.12 on 21 February 2021. Before that it was above 3 from November 2017 to January 2018 (peak 5.70 on 16 December 2017) and in January 2014. The November 2021 top only reached 1.67 and the 2024-2025 cycle peaked at 2.11 (March 2024), so the last two tops came in well below 3. Only 2.5 percent of days have been above 3.
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