Bitcoin quarterly returns heatmap (AUD)
Year-over-year heatmap of Bitcoin's quarterly compounded AUD returns. Each cell aggregates that quarter's three monthly returns into a single Q1-Q4 figure, colour-coded green for positive and red for negative. Below the table: average return and positive-quarter frequency by quarter, across all tracked years. Useful for seasonality framing - Q4 has historically been Bitcoin's strongest quarter.
Heatmap
Year × Quarter grid of Bitcoin's AUD compounded quarterly returns. Last column compounds the year. Hover any cell for the exact return.
What is Bitcoin's strongest quarter?
Q4 has the highest average return for Bitcoin in AUD terms (+78.8%), although that average leans heavily on 2013 and 2017. The averages table below the heatmap shows the live Q4 figure for the current dataset. Commonly cited drivers:
- Halving-cycle timing. The 2013, 2017 and 2021 cycle peaks came 12 to 18 months after a halving and landed in Q4, producing Q4 2013 (+504.6%), Q4 2017 (+223.0%) and, a year earlier in the 2021 cycle, Q4 2020 (+149.9%). The current cycle's highest close came in August 2025 instead, and Q4 2025 returned -23.9%.
- Year-end rebalancing. Some analysts point to October-November rebalancing flows into perceived-leadership assets. This is hard to measure.
- Year-end risk-on bias. Equity year-end rallies often spill into crypto via correlation and shared liquidity conditions.
What is Bitcoin's weakest quarter?
In the AUD data it is Q1. It is the weakest on median return (-4.8%) and hit rate (46 percent of years positive), with an average of +8.7%, the lowest of the four. Q3, which has the popular reputation as the weak quarter, has averaged +9.7% with 57 percent of years positive. Things worth knowing:
- Q1 is feast or famine. It includes some of the best quarters in the data (2021, 2023, 2024) and some of the worst (2014, 2018, 2026). Early-year bear-market selling has repeatedly landed in Q1.
- Q3 liquidity. Northern Hemisphere desks staff down through August, which can reduce market depth, but Q3 returns have not been consistently negative.
- Macro-event timing. Events such as the Fed's Jackson Hole conference in late August can move risk assets in Q3.
How reliable is Bitcoin's quarterly seasonality?
The seasonality is real in the sample but the sample is small. The AUD data covers 2013 to 2026, so each quarter has only 13 to 14 observations. Two cycle-peak Q4s dominate the Q4 average; remove 2013 and 2017 from the Q4 calculation and the figure drops from +78.8% to +27.0%.
Practical use:
- Framing, not signal. A Q4 base case of "historically strong" is fine; sizing a position purely on "Q4 is up X percent on average" is not.
- Combine with cycle phase. A Q4 inside a cycle-up phase (post-halving, Mayer Multiple >1, Risk Metric <0.7) is materially different from a Q4 inside a cycle-down phase (post-peak, falling Risk Metric).
- Watch the AUD/USD. A weak AUD quarter amplifies BTC AUD returns and vice versa; check the currency overlay before drawing conclusions about BTC strength specifically.
Methodology
- Inputs. Monthly BTC AUD return data from
/assets/data/btc-aud-monthly.json(the same source as the Monthly Returns Heatmap). - Quarter aggregation. For each year, the three months in each calendar quarter (Q1 = Jan/Feb/Mar; Q2 = Apr/May/Jun; Q3 = Jul/Aug/Sep; Q4 = Oct/Nov/Dec) are compounded multiplicatively: quarter_return = product(1 + month_return/100) - 1. Quarters with fewer than three months of data are excluded.
- Year aggregation. Same approach across the four quarters.
- Averages. Simple arithmetic mean across all completed quarters in the sample. Positive frequency = count of positive quarters / count of total quarters.
- Static-first. Data file is pre-built; if upstream is unreachable, the existing file is preserved.
Related tools
- Bitcoin Monthly Returns Heatmap (AUD) - the full month-by-month view this aggregates from.
- Bitcoin Yearly Highs and Lows (AUD) - per-year peak, trough, and return.
- Bitcoin Drawdown From ATH (AUD) - cycle position via dd-from-running-ATH.
- Bitcoin Profitable Days (AUD) - what % of historical days were profitable to buy.
- Bitcoin Halving Countdown - context for halving-cycle Q4 strength.
- Charts Dashboard - all cycle indicators on one page.
Frequently asked questions
Q4 has the highest average return in the AUD data, +78.8% across 13 years (2013 to 2025), with a median of +47.6% and positive returns in 8 of 13 years (62 percent). The average is pulled up by a few huge quarters: Q4 2013 (+504.6%), Q4 2017 (+223.0%), Q4 2020 (+149.9%) and Q4 2024 (+65.5%). Q2 has actually closed positive more often (64 percent of years). The averages table below the heatmap shows the live figures.
Q1 has been the weakest quarter in the AUD data. It has the lowest median (-4.8%) and the fewest positive years (6 of 13, 46 percent), with an average of +8.7%, also the lowest of the four. Q1 has been the most hit-or-miss quarter: big gains in 2021, 2023 and 2024, and heavy losses in 2014, 2018 and 2026. Q3, often called the summer doldrums, has averaged +9.7% with a median of +4.2% and positive returns in 57 percent of years, so it has not been the weakest quarter in AUD terms.
No. The sample size is small: the AUD data covers 2013 to 2026, so each quarter has only 13 to 14 observations. Two cycle-peak years (2013 and 2017) dominate the Q4 average; without them Q4 averages +27.0%. The seasonality pattern is a useful framing lens but not a tradeable signal in isolation. Combine quarterly context with cycle-position indicators (Mayer Multiple, Risk Metric, halving cycle phase), macro flow indicators (M2, DXY, real rates), and your own risk-management framework.
Commonly cited reasons: (1) the 2013, 2017 and 2021 bull markets all peaked in November or December, 12 to 18 months after a halving, so their strongest months landed in Q4; (2) year-end risk-asset rallies in traditional finance often spill into crypto; (3) year-end positioning and tax flows. None of these are guaranteed. Q4 2018 (-42.8%) and Q4 2025 (-23.9%) were notable exceptions.
AUD-quoted BTC returns can diverge from USD-quoted returns when the AUD itself moves materially against the USD in a quarter. A weak AUD quarter amplifies BTC AUD returns; a strong AUD quarter dampens them. Across multi-year samples the AUD/USD effect mostly averages out, so AUD and USD quarterly seasonality patterns broadly track each other - but in any single quarter the divergence can be several percentage points. The heatmap above is AUD-native; pair it with the AUD/USD performance for the same quarter for a full picture.
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