Bitcoin Mining · Chart

Bitcoin Hash Ribbons (Capriole 30/60 crossover)

The Hash Ribbons indicator plots the 30-day moving average of Bitcoin hashrate against the 60-day moving average. When the 30 falls below the 60 the network is in miner capitulation (shaded red). When the 30 crosses back above the 60 after a confirmed capitulation episode (10+ continuous days), a Hash Ribbon buy signal fires (green BUY marker on the chart). Coined by Charles Edwards / Capriole Investments in 2019, it is one of the best-known miner-capitulation signals in the Bitcoin indicator stack. Hover any day for the exact MA values and current state classification.

Last updated: 27 September 2026 By Govind Satoshi

Chart

Log-scale chart of the 30-day MA hashrate (green) vs the 60-day MA hashrate (yellow) from 2014 onwards. Periods where the 30 sits below the 60 are shaded red (miner capitulation). Green BUY markers fire on each qualifying post-capitulation crossover. Hover any day for the exact MA values and current state classification.

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What are Hash Ribbons?

Hash Ribbons is a Bitcoin cycle-bottom indicator developed by Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments in 2019. The construction is simple:

  • 30-day MA of network hashrate (responsive short-term).
  • 60-day MA of network hashrate (less responsive, smoother).

The relative position of the two MAs classifies the current state of the mining economy:

  • 30 above 60 = expansion. Hashrate is growing; miners are profitable and deploying more capacity.
  • 30 below 60 = capitulation. Hashrate is contracting; high-cost miners are switching off. Forced selling of any remaining BTC inventory is happening.
  • 30 crosses up through 60 after sustained capitulation = buy signal. The capitulation phase has ended. The worst sellers (capitulating miners liquidating inventory) have exhausted their flow. Price typically follows.

The thesis is mining-economic rather than technical: hashrate is the most direct measure of miner financial stress, and miner-stress periods are also forced-selling periods. When the stress ends, the forced selling ends.

How the buy signal fires

The signal has three components, applied in strict sequence:

  1. Capitulation onset. The 30D MA crosses below the 60D MA. The chart begins shading red.
  2. Sustained capitulation. The 30D MA stays below the 60D MA for at least 10 continuous days. This duration filter rejects short-term block-time-noise crossings.
  3. Recovery cross. The 30D MA crosses back above the 60D MA. The Hash Ribbon buy signal fires on this day.

Some implementations add a fourth confirmation rule (BTC price must be above its 10-day MA at the moment of cross) for extra filter strength. The base 3-rule version is the most-cited "Capriole Hash Ribbons" signal.

Historical hit rate

Capriole has published backtests reporting a high win rate at 1-year forward holding periods; we have not reproduced their numbers. The signals on this chart at the 10-day capitulation threshold, with the AUD price on the day and the AUD return twelve months later:

  • 1 January 2015. BTC A$384. Twelve months later: +55 percent.
  • 25 May 2015. BTC A$302. Twelve months later: +104 percent.
  • 23 August 2016. BTC A$760. Twelve months later: +583 percent.
  • 11 January 2019. BTC A$5,054. Twelve months later: +131 percent.
  • 22 December 2019. BTC A$10,895. Twelve months later: +175 percent.
  • 25 April 2020. BTC A$11,836. Twelve months later: +439 percent.
  • 24 June 2020. BTC A$13,380. Twelve months later: +242 percent.
  • 3 December 2020. BTC A$26,218. Twelve months later: +189 percent.
  • 18 May 2021. BTC A$55,155. Twelve months later: -26 percent.
  • 9 August 2021. BTC A$63,087. Twelve months later: -47 percent.
  • 5 July 2022. BTC A$29,340. Twelve months later: +55 percent.
  • 20 August 2022. BTC A$30,598. Twelve months later: +34 percent.
  • 15 January 2023. BTC A$29,973. Twelve months later: +112 percent.
  • 18 June 2024. BTC A$98,377. Twelve months later: +64 percent.
  • 24 July 2024. BTC A$98,875. Twelve months later: +82 percent.
  • 24 July 2025. BTC A$179,846. Twelve months later: -49 percent.
  • Too recent to judge. 4 January 2026, 27 February 2026, 11 May 2026, 24 May 2026, 22 July 2026, 27 August 2026, as the 2026 price decline forced repeated miner shut-downs.

13 of the 16 measurable signals were followed by a higher price a year later. The ones followed by a lower price were 18 May 2021, 9 August 2021 and 24 July 2025. The 2021 losers fired between the April 2021 high and the November 2021 top, with the 2022 bear market inside the twelve-month window, and July 2025 fired near the cycle high. The pair in June and July 2024 followed the squeeze on miners after the April 2024 halving.

Because the chart uses real daily hashrate back to 2014, it shows the capitulations that published implementations list: late 2014 (signal on 1 January 2015), late 2018 (11 January 2019), the March 2020 crash (25 April 2020) and late 2022 (15 January 2023). The signal has also fired more often than its reputation suggests, 9 times since the April 2024 halving alone.

Methodology

  1. Inputs. Daily hashrate from /assets/data/btc-hashrate.json: mempool.space's daily network hashrate estimate from January 2014 onwards (blockchain.info as fallback). The full history is re-fetched on every automatic refresh and checked against known reference points, such as the mid-2021 China ban drawdown, so no part of it is interpolated.
  2. Moving averages. 30-day and 60-day simple moving averages of daily hashrate.
  3. State classification. capitulation (30D < 60D), recovery (30D > 60D, within first 30 days post-capitulation), expansion (30D > 60D, sustained 30+ days).
  4. Buy signal rule. Fires on the day the 30D crosses above the 60D, provided the immediately prior period was a continuous capitulation of at least 10 days.
  5. Static-first. Snapshot is re-derived on every build by scripts/fetch-btc-hash-ribbons.mjs from the freshest hashrate file. If hashrate is stale or missing, the existing snapshot is preserved.

Frequently asked questions

Hash Ribbons is a Bitcoin cycle-bottom indicator developed by Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments in 2019. It plots the 30-day moving average of network hashrate against the 60-day moving average. When the 30 falls below the 60, the network is in miner capitulation. When the 30 crosses back above the 60 after a sustained capitulation episode, a buy signal fires. The thesis: miners that capitulate (switch off) are forced sellers of any remaining BTC inventory; once the capitulation ends and hashrate recovers, the worst sellers have exhausted and price is set up to recover.

Three rules must hit in sequence: (1) the 30D MA must cross below the 60D MA, marking the start of a capitulation episode; (2) that capitulation must persist for at least 10 continuous days (this filters out short-term block-time noise crossings); (3) the 30D MA must then cross above the 60D MA. Capriole's own version adds a short confirmation period to avoid whipsaws; this chart marks the signal on the day of the crossover. Some implementations also require BTC price to be above its 10-day MA at the moment of cross-over for extra filter strength. The conservative buy signal is the rarer, higher-quality version.

It depends on the capitulation-duration threshold (5 vs 10 vs 14 days) and the quality of the hashrate data. This chart uses real daily network hashrate from mempool.space back to January 2014 and, at the 10-day threshold, shows 22 signals: 1 January 2015, 25 May 2015, 23 August 2016, 11 January 2019, 22 December 2019, 25 April 2020, 24 June 2020, 3 December 2020, 18 May 2021, 9 August 2021, 5 July 2022, 20 August 2022, 15 January 2023, 18 June 2024, 24 July 2024, 24 July 2025, 4 January 2026, 27 February 2026, 11 May 2026, 24 May 2026, 22 July 2026, 27 August 2026. They cluster where miners were squeezed: after the 2016 and 2020 halvings, after the March 2020 crash, twice in 2021 around the China mining crackdown, in the 2022 bear market, and 9 times since the April 2024 halving as the halved block subsidy and the 2026 price decline pushed higher-cost miners on and off the network. The signal is meant for cycle positioning, not short-term trading.

Capriole has published backtests reporting a high win rate for buying at each signal and holding for a year. We have not reproduced their numbers. On this chart, 13 of the 16 signals old enough to measure were followed by a higher AUD price twelve months later. The exceptions were 18 May 2021, 9 August 2021 and 24 July 2025. The 2021 and 2025 losers came late in bull markets, which is when a miner-stress signal says least about price.

The most recent signal on this chart was 27 August 2026. Since the April 2024 halving the chart has printed 9 signals (18 June 2024, 24 July 2024, 24 July 2025, 4 January 2026, 27 February 2026, 11 May 2026, 24 May 2026, 22 July 2026, 27 August 2026), as the halved block subsidy and the 2026 price decline pushed higher-cost miners on and off the network. As of 8 October 2026 the state is expansion (30-day above 60-day for 30+ days). The chart marks every qualifying signal across the full history.

Hash Ribbons is one of three high-precision cycle-bottom indicators tracked on SatoshiMacro. The other two are: Puell Multiple below 0.5 (mining-revenue based) and the Bitcoin Pi Cycle Bottom Indicator (price-MA-based). When all three agree, the cycle-bottom call is high confidence. Each indicator has a different precision/recall tradeoff: Puell sub-0.5 has been the rarest; Pi Cycle Bottom confirms bear-market ends months after the low; Hash Ribbons has fired often since the 2024 halving. Use them together for confluence.

About the author

Govind Satoshi
Govind Satoshi
Former Institutional Trader. Founder, SatoshiMacro.
Traded allocated institutional capital at a Sydney proprietary trading firm.