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NASDAQ 100 with Bitcoin Overlay (^NDX vs BTC-USD)

The NASDAQ 100 (^NDX) from 2000 onwards overlaid with Bitcoin USD. The NASDAQ 100 is the highest-beta major US equity index and the cleanest read on US tech-and-growth risk appetite; Bitcoin tracks the same regime with higher amplitude. AUD-resident investors holding NDQ, IVZ, or direct US-listed tech ETFs get the underlying-asset read alongside the BTC cycle marker. Pulled live from Yahoo Finance on every site build with fallback snapshot.

Last updated: 18 May 2026 By Govind Satoshi

Chart

NASDAQ 100 (gold, left axis) with Bitcoin USD overlay (orange, right axis). Both plotted on a log scale so percentage moves are visually comparable across the full history. Hover for the exact daily values. Click Fullscreen for a presentation-grade view.

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What is the NASDAQ 100?

The NASDAQ 100 is a modified market-cap-weighted index of the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the NASDAQ exchange. Created in 1985, it has become the standard benchmark for US tech-and-growth equity exposure.

Three structural features shape how the index moves:

  • Megacap concentration. The top 7 stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla) account for roughly 50 percent of index weight. The "Mag 7" trade is essentially a leveraged NASDAQ 100 trade.
  • Modified cap weighting. Unlike pure cap weighting, the NASDAQ 100 caps individual weights at quarterly rebalances to prevent any single megacap dominating. Even with the cap, Apple has hit 14 percent weight in past cycles.
  • Excludes financials. Banks, insurers, and asset managers do not qualify regardless of NASDAQ listing. This gives the index its tech-and-growth character.

NASDAQ 100 vs Bitcoin correlation

Rolling 90-day correlation between NASDAQ 100 and Bitcoin daily returns has averaged ~0.5 since 2020. This is higher than the S&P 500's ~0.4 correlation with BTC for three reasons.

First, composition: NASDAQ 100 is heavier in long-duration growth stocks, which respond more sharply to interest rate moves than the broader S&P. Bitcoin shares the same long-duration risk-asset character (zero current cash flows, all value in long-tail expectations). Second, investor overlap: retail and institutional traders who hold tech-heavy growth equity also hold Bitcoin at higher rates than the broader equity universe. Third, liquidity and sentiment: both NDX and BTC are quoted continuously across global hours and respond first to overnight macro headlines.

Correlation peaks in tightening shocks (Q3 2022 reached ~0.85) and decouples during BTC-specific catalysts (halving years, spot ETF launches). The signal for AUD-resident traders: NDX strength typically precedes or coincides with BTC strength; NDX weakness is a leading indicator for BTC weakness when the driver is macro rather than crypto-specific.

Why AU traders watch the NASDAQ 100

  • NDQ ETF exposure. The BetaShares NDQ ETF (ASX-listed, 0.48 percent fee, AUD-quoted) is the dominant Australian retail vehicle for NASDAQ 100 exposure. Tracks the index closely; AUD-USD currency move layers on top of the underlying USD return.
  • Direct broker access. AUD-resident investors using Interactive Brokers, Stake, or CMC Markets can hold QQQ or directly hold individual NASDAQ 100 names. The currency layer adds a second source of return that can be a 5-10 percentage point swing over 12 months.
  • ASX tech sector correlation. The ASX 200 Information Technology sub-index has ~0.6 rolling 90-day correlation with the NASDAQ 100. AU-listed tech names (WiseTech, Xero, Altium when listed) tend to move with their US peers on similar earnings cycles.
  • Macro regime read. NASDAQ 100 is the most rate-sensitive major US equity index. Sustained NDX weakness signals tightening or recession risk; sustained strength signals easing or risk-on regime. Both regimes have direct implications for Bitcoin AUD, the ASX 200 Tech sub-index, and AUD/USD.

Methodology

  1. Source. Yahoo Finance, ticker ^NDX for the NASDAQ 100 and BTC-USD for the Bitcoin overlay.
  2. Endpoint. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/^NDX?interval=1d (public chart endpoint, no API key required).
  3. Adjusted close. Yahoo's daily adjusted close field. For ^NDX this is identical to the unadjusted close because indices have no dividends or splits.
  4. Bitcoin overlay alignment. The BTC-USD series is aligned to each NDX trading day; only days with an NDX close are kept. This keeps both lines on the same calendar grid.
  5. Log scale. Both axes are log-scaled so percentage moves at different price levels are visually comparable.
  6. Static-first. If Yahoo is unreachable on a given build, the existing snapshot is preserved.

Frequently asked questions

The NASDAQ 100 is a modified market-cap-weighted index of the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the NASDAQ exchange. It is the institutional benchmark for US tech-and-growth equity exposure. Heavily concentrated in seven megacaps (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla) which together account for roughly 50 percent of index weight. The chart on this page uses Yahoo Finance's daily adjusted close for ticker ^NDX.

The NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) includes every common stock listed on the NASDAQ exchange (currently ~3,000 stocks). The NASDAQ 100 (^NDX) is a curated subset of the 100 largest non-financial NASDAQ-listed companies. The NASDAQ 100 is what institutional traders track as 'the NASDAQ' for risk-asset positioning; the Composite is mostly a media reference. The two indices have ~0.99 correlation since the NASDAQ 100 is a heavy share of the Composite's market cap.

Three reasons. (1) Composition: NASDAQ 100 is heavier in long-duration growth stocks, which respond more sharply to interest rate moves than the S&P 500's broader composition. Bitcoin shares the same long-duration risk-asset character. (2) Investor overlap: retail and institutional traders who hold tech-heavy growth equity also hold Bitcoin at higher rates than average. (3) Liquidity and sentiment: both NDX and BTC are quoted continuously across global hours and respond first to overnight macro headlines. Rolling 90-day correlation has averaged ~0.5 since 2020, vs ~0.4 for the S&P 500.

Yahoo Finance, ticker ^NDX, fetched via the public v8/finance/chart endpoint on every site build. Bitcoin USD prices (BTC-USD) come from the same source on the same build. The build pipeline preserves the last-known-good snapshot if Yahoo is temporarily unreachable so the chart always renders.

The NASDAQ 100 is the index. QQQ is the Invesco-managed ETF that tracks the index. ^NDX has no fees, no AUM, no tracking error; it is the abstract reference. QQQ has a 0.20 percent expense ratio, ~USD 350 billion AUM, and tracks the index to within a few basis points. Most retail traders quote 'NASDAQ' meaning QQQ; institutional risk reporting uses ^NDX. Australian-resident investors typically access NASDAQ 100 exposure via NDQ (BetaShares-listed ASX ETF, 0.48 percent fee, AUD-quoted) or QQQ directly through a US-broker account.

Every site build. Cloudflare Pages runs the build on every push to main and the build runs the Yahoo Finance fetch script before generating HTML. The chart reflects the most recent close available from Yahoo at build time, typically within 24 hours of the latest US trading session.

About the author

Govind Satoshi
Govind Satoshi
Former Institutional Trader. Founder, SatoshiMacro.
Traded allocated institutional capital at a Sydney proprietary trading firm.