Markets · Chart

S&P 500 with Bitcoin Overlay (^GSPC vs BTC-USD)

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) from 2000 onwards overlaid with Bitcoin USD on the secondary axis. The two assets have inflected together at most major macro turning points since BTC went institutional in 2020. AUD-resident investors get the global beta read AND the cycle-asset read in one chart. Pulled live from Yahoo Finance on every site build with a fallback snapshot so the chart always renders.

Last updated: 18 May 2026 By Govind Satoshi

Chart

S&P 500 (gold, left axis) with Bitcoin USD overlay (orange, right axis). Both plotted on a log scale so percentage moves are visually comparable across the full history. Hover for the exact daily values. Click Fullscreen for a presentation-grade view.

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What is the S&P 500?

The S&P 500 is a free-float market-cap-weighted index of 500 large US companies maintained by S&P Dow Jones Indices. It is the institutional benchmark for US equity performance and the single most-tracked index on earth. Total market cap of the constituents is roughly USD 55 trillion as of mid-2026 - larger than every other equity market combined.

Three structural features shape how the index moves:

  • Cap weighting. The top 10 stocks account for about 36 percent of the index. Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta together drive the bulk of daily moves. This is why the S&P can rally while the equal-weighted equivalent (SPW) lags.
  • Inclusion criteria. A company must be US-listed, have positive trailing-four-quarter earnings, market cap above the threshold (currently USD 18 billion), float at least 50 percent of shares, and meet liquidity tests. The index committee reviews quarterly; inclusion is a price-positive event (the "S&P 500 effect").
  • Dividend yield. Currently around 1.3 percent annualised. Low by historical standards because the megacap composition skews toward tech, which retains earnings rather than pays them out.

S&P 500 vs Bitcoin correlation

Rolling 90-day correlation between S&P 500 and Bitcoin daily returns has averaged about 0.4 since 2020. It spiked to roughly 0.7 during the 2022 risk-off period when both fell as the Fed hiked aggressively, and fell to near zero during the 2024 halving year when crypto-specific catalysts (spot ETF launches, halving supply shock) dominated.

The practical implication for AUD-resident portfolios is that Bitcoin AUD is not a hedge against an S&P 500 drawdown. Both compress in a Fed tightening shock; both expand in a Fed cutting cycle plus risk-on regime. The diversification argument for Bitcoin in a portfolio context is about long-horizon expected return and idiosyncratic upside, not about beta diversification away from US equities.

Why AU traders watch the S&P 500

  • ASX 200 correlation. Rolling 90-day correlation between the S&P 500 and the ASX 200 has averaged ~0.65 over the past decade. The ASX opens overnight after the US close, so the previous US session typically dictates ASX direction in the open auction. AUD-resident equity traders watch the S&P close to position for the next ASX open.
  • US-listed ETF exposure. Most Australian super funds and SMSFs hold significant US-listed equity ETF allocations (VTS, IVV, NDQ, SPDR S&P 500). The performance of these holdings depends on the S&P 500 in USD plus the AUD/USD currency move on top.
  • Direct broker access. AUD-resident investors using Interactive Brokers, Stake, or CMC Markets can trade S&P 500 ETFs and constituent stocks directly. The AUD/USD currency layer is a meaningful second source of return: a 10 percent S&P return with a 5 percent AUD/USD decline is a 15.5 percent AUD return; with a 5 percent AUD/USD rally it is a 4.5 percent AUD return.
  • Macro regime read. The S&P 500 is the cleanest daily read on global risk-asset sentiment. Sustained S&P weakness signals risk-off; sustained strength signals risk-on. Both regimes have direct implications for Bitcoin AUD, the ASX 200, AUD/USD, and AU government bond yields.

Methodology

  1. Source. Yahoo Finance, ticker ^GSPC for the S&P 500 and BTC-USD for the Bitcoin overlay.
  2. Endpoint. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/^GSPC?interval=1d (public chart endpoint, no API key required).
  3. Adjusted close. Yahoo Finance's daily adjusted close field. For ^GSPC this is identical to the unadjusted close because indices have no dividends or splits.
  4. Bitcoin overlay alignment. The Bitcoin USD series is aligned to each S&P trading day; for weekends and US holidays where Bitcoin trades but the S&P does not, the BTC value is not used (only days with an S&P close are kept). This keeps both lines on the same calendar grid.
  5. Log scale. Both axes are log-scaled so percentage moves at different price levels are visually comparable (a 10 percent move from 1000 looks the same as a 10 percent move from 6000).
  6. Static-first. If Yahoo is unreachable on a given build, the existing snapshot is preserved. The seed file ships with quarterly anchors interpolated to daily so the chart renders meaningfully even on first install.

Frequently asked questions

The S&P 500 is a free-float market-cap-weighted index of 500 large US companies listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ. It captures roughly 80 percent of US equity market value and is the single most-referenced benchmark for global risk-asset performance. Index level is calculated by S&P Dow Jones Indices and disseminated in real-time during US trading hours; the chart on this page uses Yahoo Finance's daily adjusted close (which is identical to the closing index level for ^GSPC since indices don't have dividends or splits).

Rolling 90-day correlation has averaged ~0.4 since 2020 and spiked to ~0.7 during the 2022 risk-off period (BTC fell with stocks as the Fed hiked). The two assets behave as same-direction risk-on / risk-off proxies when the Fed is moving aggressively, and decouple when crypto-specific catalysts dominate (halving cycles, ETF flows, regulatory inflection). For Australian-resident investors the practical takeaway is that BTC AUD is not a hedge against an S&P drawdown - both compress in a Fed tightening shock.

Three reasons. First, the S&P drives global risk-asset sentiment and the ASX 200 has a ~0.65 rolling correlation to it. Second, most super funds and SMSFs hold significant US-listed ETF allocations (VTS, IVV, NDQ, SPDR S&P 500). Third, AUD-resident investors using US-listed brokers (Interactive Brokers, Stake) trade directly into the S&P 500 universe; AUD-USD fluctuations layer onto the underlying USD return. A 10 percent S&P return with a 5 percent AUD/USD decline is a 15.5 percent AUD return; with a 5 percent AUD/USD rally it is a 4.5 percent AUD return.

Yahoo Finance, ticker ^GSPC, fetched via the public v8/finance/chart endpoint on every site build. Bitcoin USD prices (^BTC-USD) come from the same source on the same build. The build pipeline preserves the last-known-good snapshot if Yahoo is temporarily unreachable so the chart always renders. Daily adjusted close values are used; for indices like ^GSPC this is identical to the close because there are no dividends or splits at the index level.

The S&P 500 is market-cap weighted across 500 companies, so megacaps (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet) drive a disproportionate share of the index move. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is price-weighted across only 30 companies, so a high-priced stock like UnitedHealth can move the Dow more than a higher-cap but lower-priced stock like Apple. The S&P 500 is the institutional benchmark for US equity performance; the Dow is mostly a legacy index. Professional asset allocators target the S&P 500 (or VTI for total-market) as the proxy.

Every site build. Cloudflare Pages runs the build on every push to main, and the build runs the Yahoo Finance fetch script before generating HTML. In practice the chart reflects the most recent close available from Yahoo at build time, typically within 24 hours of the latest US trading session. For real-time intraday quotes use a broker terminal or TradingView; this page is a free zero-signup snapshot for macro context.

About the author

Govind Satoshi
Govind Satoshi
Former Institutional Trader. Founder, SatoshiMacro.
Traded allocated institutional capital at a Sydney proprietary trading firm.