TLT vs Bitcoin Ratio Chart (Live Data)

Chart

TLT share price (USD) divided by Bitcoin USD price. Log scale so percentage moves at different ratio levels are visually comparable. Hover for exact ratio values. Click Fullscreen for a presentation-grade view.

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What is TLT?

TLT is the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (US-listed, NASDAQ, 0.15 percent management fee, ~$50 billion AUM). It holds a portfolio of US Treasury bonds with remaining maturity of 20 years or more, currently average duration ~25 years.

TLT is the cleanest publicly-traded equity-wrapper proxy for being long US duration. It is what institutional asset allocators buy when they want long-duration sovereign bond exposure without managing individual bonds. Three structural features:

Pure duration exposure. No credit risk (Treasuries are the US sovereign credit). No call risk. The price movement is essentially the inverse of long-end US yields.
High duration. Modified duration ~17. A 1 percent rise in 20-year yields produces roughly a 17 percent fall in TLT price. This is mathematically high-risk in a rate-rising regime.
Yield drag. Long Treasuries currently yield ~4.5 percent. TLT distributes this monthly. The yield is a partial offset to capital-price volatility but doesn't change the directional thesis.

The 2020-23 yield rise from 0.5 percent to 5 percent produced a ~70 percent peak-to-trough drawdown in long Treasury prices and a ~45 percent drawdown in TLT (slightly less than the bond math implies due to coupon contribution).

What the TLT / BTC ratio tracks

The numerator is TLT's share price in USD. The denominator is Bitcoin's USD price. The ratio captures relative performance of long-duration fiat-denominated bonds vs hard-supply digital money.

The trajectory since 2014 has been one-directional and dramatic. TLT traded around $115 in early 2014 with BTC at $770 - ratio approximately 0.149. Mid-2026 has TLT at ~$92 and BTC at ~$130,000 - ratio approximately 0.0007. The ratio has compressed by approximately 99.5 percent over 12 years.

Three regime-shifts are visible:

QE era (2014-2020). TLT rallied modestly as the Fed kept long yields suppressed via balance-sheet expansion. BTC went through two full cycles (2017 peak to 2018 trough, 2020 recovery). Ratio fell as BTC outpaced bonds even in the BTC-bear stretches.
Inflation-shock era (2021-2023). TLT fell ~45 percent as inflation forced the Fed into the fastest hiking cycle in modern history. BTC also fell sharply through 2022 but recovered first, while TLT continued grinding lower into October 2023. Ratio compression accelerated sharply.
Post-hike normalisation (2024-2026). Long yields stabilised at 4-5 percent (higher than the 2009-2021 average due to fiscal-deficit-driven term premium). TLT recovered modestly. BTC rallied to new highs post-halving. Ratio continued falling but at a slower rate.

Why AU investors should care about TLT / BTC

Defensive allocation diagnostic. Most AU super-fund defensive allocations are predominantly long-duration sovereign bonds (AU government bonds for AGGM, VGB; international Treasuries for VGAD, IGB). The TLT/BTC chart is the diagnostic for whether 'defensive' asset allocation is actually preserving real purchasing power. The answer over the past 12 years has been no in BTC terms, no in gold terms, and barely yes in USD-real terms.
VAS vs BTC framing. AU 10-year government bonds via VGB or BOND have a slightly better trajectory than TLT due to higher coupons earlier in the cycle, but the directional story is the same. AUD-resident investors holding VAS (Vanguard Australian Shares, 0.07 percent fee) for the 'safe equity' allocation and a small BTC stack for upside should look at the ratio framing as an asset-allocation consistency check.
60/40 portfolio decay. The classic '60 percent equity, 40 percent bonds' portfolio has been the standard institutional default for 40+ years. The 40 percent bond component has underperformed substantially in BTC and gold terms since 2020. Some institutional allocators have responded by adding 1-5 percent BTC to the portfolio as a 'replace bond duration with hard-supply' diversification trade.
Currency layer. TLT is USD-denominated; AU investors picking it up via Stake or IB add AUD/USD exposure on top of underlying USD returns.

Methodology

Source. Yahoo Finance, ticker TLT for the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF and BTC-USD for Bitcoin.
Endpoint. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/TLT?interval=1d (public chart endpoint, no API key required).
Adjusted close. Yahoo's daily adjusted close, which incorporates the monthly distribution of bond coupons. Important: the adjusted close grows faster than the price chart due to coupon reinvestment, so the actual price drawdown of TLT in the 2020-23 cycle is more severe than the adjusted-close series implies.
Ratio calculation. Daily TLT adjusted close divided by daily BTC-USD close. Only days where both values are available are kept.
Log scale. Y axis is log-scaled so a halving of the ratio looks the same regardless of absolute level. The 99 percent collapse compresses to a clean visual on log scale.
Static-first. If Yahoo is unreachable on a given build, the existing snapshot is preserved.

ASX 200 in BTC AUD - the equity equivalent of the same debasement framing.
Gold Spot - the other hard-money alternative.
10Y Treasury Yield - the underlying yield driver for TLT.
Fed Funds Rate - the policy rate that transmits to long yields.
2Y/10Y Yield Curve - the curve-steepness recession signal.
Bitcoin Log Regression (AUD) - BTC cycle positioning.

Frequently asked questions

What is TLT and why does it matter?

TLT is the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (US-listed, NASDAQ ticker TLT, 0.15 percent fee). It holds a portfolio of long-duration US Treasuries, currently average ~25-year maturity. The single largest publicly-traded long-duration USD bond fund, with ~$50 billion AUM. TLT is the cleanest equity-wrapper proxy for being long US duration. When long-end yields fall, TLT rises; when long-end yields rise, TLT falls.

What does the TLT / BTC ratio show?

The ratio is TLT share price (USD) divided by Bitcoin USD price. It captures the relative performance of long-duration fiat-denominated bonds vs hard-supply digital money. The ratio has fallen by over 99 percent since 2014 - TLT has lost more than 99 percent of its purchasing power measured in Bitcoin. The chart is the cleanest single visualisation of the hard-money-vs-fiat thesis applied to the most defensive traditional asset class.

Why is the TLT / BTC ratio relevant for AU investors?

AU investors rarely hold TLT directly but the ratio matters for two reasons. First, it is the cleanest visualisation of the bonds-as-savings thesis breaking down. The post-1980 'bonds are the safe asset' framing has produced a 99 percent loss in BTC terms. AU government bonds (10-year, via VGB) have a slightly better trajectory due to higher coupons, but the directional story is the same. Second, super fund defensive allocations are predominantly long-duration sovereign bonds. The TLT/BTC chart is the diagnostic for whether 'defensive' asset allocation is actually preserving real purchasing power.

How does TLT respond to Fed policy?

TLT is the cleanest equity-wrapper proxy for long-end US yields. When the Fed signals dovish (rate cuts, balance-sheet expansion), long yields fall and TLT rises. When the Fed signals hawkish (rate hikes, QT), long yields rise and TLT falls. TLT fell ~45 percent from August 2020 peak ($170) to October 2023 trough ($83) during the Fed's hiking cycle. It has not recovered to the 2020 peak despite the Fed cutting cycle - the long-end has remained anchored higher as US fiscal deficits drove term-premium up.

What is duration risk and why does TLT have so much of it?

Duration is the price-sensitivity of a bond to interest rate changes. A 1 percent rise in long yields produces a ~15 percent fall in 20-year Treasury prices. TLT holds ~25-year average duration bonds, so its modified duration is roughly 17. The 2020-23 yield rise from 0.5 percent to 5 percent therefore produced a ~70 percent peak-to-trough drawdown in long Treasury prices. TLT is mathematically high-risk in a rate-rising regime; the volatility is built into the maturity selection, not exotic structure.

Where does the data on this page come from?

Yahoo Finance, ticker TLT for the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF and BTC-USD for Bitcoin, fetched via the public v8/finance/chart endpoint on every site build. TLT launched in July 2002 so the series begins in late 2002. The Bitcoin overlay starts in 2014 since reliable daily BTC data does not exist before then. The build pipeline preserves the last-known-good snapshot if Yahoo is temporarily unreachable.

About the author

Govind Satoshi

Former Institutional Trader. Founder, SatoshiMacro.

Traded allocated institutional capital at a Sydney proprietary trading firm.

TLT / BTC Ratio (Long Treasuries vs Bitcoin)