Markets · Chart

TLT / BTC Ratio (Long Treasuries vs Bitcoin)

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) divided by Bitcoin USD. TLT is the cleanest publicly-traded long-duration USD-bond exposure; Bitcoin is the hard-supply digital alternative. The ratio captures one of the defining secular trades since 2014: long bonds losing purchasing power against hard-supply digital money. Refreshed from Yahoo Finance twice a day, with the last good data kept if the source is unreachable.

Last updated: 27 September 2026 By Govind Satoshi

Chart

TLT share price (USD) divided by Bitcoin USD price. Log scale so percentage moves at different ratio levels are visually comparable. Hover for exact ratio values. Click Fullscreen for a presentation-grade view.

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What is TLT?

TLT is the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (US-listed, NASDAQ, 0.15 percent management fee). It holds a portfolio of US Treasury bonds with remaining maturity of 20 years or more, averaging roughly 25 years to maturity.

TLT is the cleanest publicly-traded equity-wrapper proxy for being long US duration. It is what institutional asset allocators buy when they want long-duration sovereign bond exposure without managing individual bonds. Three structural features:

  • Pure duration exposure. No credit risk (Treasuries are the US sovereign credit). No call risk. The price movement is essentially the inverse of long-end US yields.
  • High duration. Modified duration ~17. A 1 percent rise in 20-year yields produces roughly a 17 percent fall in TLT price. This is mathematically high-risk in a rate-rising regime.
  • Coupon income. Long Treasuries pay a coupon (for reference, the 10-year yield was 5.27 percent on 6 October 2026). TLT distributes this monthly. The yield is a partial offset to capital-price volatility but doesn't change the directional thesis.

The 2020-23 yield rise (the 10-year went from 0.52 percent in August 2020 to 4.98 percent in October 2023) cut TLT's share price roughly in half, from about $170 to about $83, and its dividend-adjusted price by about 48 percent. The longest individual bonds fell further.

What the TLT / BTC ratio tracks

The numerator is TLT's share price in USD. The denominator is Bitcoin's USD price. The ratio captures relative performance of long-duration fiat-denominated bonds vs hard-supply digital money.

The trajectory since 2014 has been overwhelmingly one-directional and dramatic. When the chart begins in September 2014, the dividend-adjusted TLT series stood at about $81 with BTC at about $457, a ratio of about 0.176. On 6 October 2026 the ratio was about 0.000903, down about 99.5 percent. The low so far was 0.000674 in July 2025, before Bitcoin's 2026 fall lifted it.

Three regime-shifts are visible:

  • QE era (2014-2020). TLT rallied modestly as the Fed kept long yields suppressed via balance-sheet expansion. BTC went through two full cycles (2017 peak to 2018 trough, 2020 recovery). Ratio fell as BTC outpaced bonds even in the BTC-bear stretches.
  • Inflation-shock era (2021-2023). TLT fell ~45 percent as inflation forced the Fed into the fastest hiking cycle in modern history. BTC also fell sharply through 2022 but recovered first, while TLT continued grinding lower into October 2023. Ratio compression accelerated sharply.
  • Post-hike era (2024-2026). The 10-year yield moved between about 3.6 and 5.2 percent (well above the 2009-2021 average, partly on fiscal-deficit-driven term premium). TLT recovered only modestly from its 2023 low. BTC rallied to new highs after the 2024 halving and the ratio hit its low in July 2025, then rose as Bitcoin fell back in late 2025 and 2026.

Why AU investors should care about TLT / BTC

  • Defensive allocation diagnostic. Most AU super-fund defensive allocations are predominantly long-duration sovereign bonds (AU government bonds for AGGM, VGB; international Treasuries for VGAD, IGB). The TLT/BTC chart is the diagnostic for whether 'defensive' asset allocation is actually preserving real purchasing power. Since 2014 the answer has been no in BTC terms and no in gold terms.
  • VAS vs BTC framing. AU 10-year government bonds via VGB or BOND have a slightly better trajectory than TLT due to higher coupons earlier in the cycle, but the directional story is the same. AUD-resident investors holding VAS (Vanguard Australian Shares, 0.07 percent fee) for the 'safe equity' allocation and a small BTC stack for upside should look at the ratio framing as an asset-allocation consistency check.
  • 60/40 portfolio decay. The classic '60 percent equity, 40 percent bonds' portfolio has been the standard institutional default for 40+ years. The 40 percent bond component has underperformed substantially in BTC and gold terms since 2020. Some institutional allocators have responded by adding 1-5 percent BTC to the portfolio as a 'replace bond duration with hard-supply' diversification trade.
  • Currency layer. TLT is USD-denominated; AU investors picking it up via Stake or IB add AUD/USD exposure on top of underlying USD returns.

Methodology

  1. Source. Yahoo Finance, ticker TLT for the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF and BTC-USD for Bitcoin.
  2. Endpoint. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/TLT?interval=1d (public chart endpoint, no API key required).
  3. Adjusted close. Yahoo's daily adjusted close, which incorporates the monthly distribution of bond coupons. Important: the adjusted close grows faster than the price chart due to coupon reinvestment, so the actual price drawdown of TLT in the 2020-23 cycle is more severe than the adjusted-close series implies.
  4. Ratio calculation. Daily TLT adjusted close divided by daily BTC-USD close. Only days where both values are available are kept.
  5. Log scale. Y axis is log-scaled so a halving of the ratio looks the same regardless of absolute level. The 99 percent collapse compresses to a clean visual on log scale.
  6. Refresh and fallback. An automated refresh runs twice a day (07:30 and 13:30 Sydney) and the site rebuilds when the data changes. If Yahoo is unreachable, the last good data is kept.

Data source and download (Yahoo Finance chart API)

Both series come from Yahoo Finance's public chart endpoint, which works in a browser or script with no API key:

https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/TLT?interval=1d&range=max

The range parameter accepts 1mo, 1y, 5y, or max; interval accepts 1d, 1wk, or 1mo. The response is JSON with a timestamp array plus open, high, low, close, and adjusted close arrays. For the ratio, pull BTC-USD from the same endpoint pattern and divide the aligned daily closes. Related tickers on the same endpoint: IEF (7-10 year Treasuries), GOVT (broad Treasuries), ^TNX (10-year yield index). Yahoo rate-limits unauthenticated requests, so cache responses rather than polling.

Frequently asked questions

TLT is the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (US-listed, NASDAQ ticker TLT, 0.15 percent fee). It holds a portfolio of long-duration US Treasuries with an average maturity of roughly 25 years. It is one of the largest and most traded long-duration USD bond funds. TLT is the cleanest equity-wrapper proxy for being long US duration. When long-end yields fall, TLT rises; when long-end yields rise, TLT falls.

The ratio is TLT share price (USD) divided by Bitcoin USD price. It captures the relative performance of long-duration fiat-denominated bonds vs hard-supply digital money. The ratio has fallen 99.5 percent since the chart starts in September 2014: TLT has lost more than 99 percent of its purchasing power measured in Bitcoin. The chart is the cleanest single visualisation of the hard-money-vs-fiat thesis applied to the most defensive traditional asset class.

AU investors rarely hold TLT directly but the ratio matters for two reasons. First, it is the cleanest visualisation of the bonds-as-savings thesis breaking down. Since 2014 the 'bonds are the safe asset' framing has produced a loss of more than 99 percent in BTC terms. AU government bonds (10-year, via VGB) have a slightly better trajectory due to higher coupons, but the directional story is the same. Second, super fund defensive allocations are predominantly long-duration sovereign bonds. The TLT/BTC chart is the diagnostic for whether 'defensive' asset allocation is actually preserving real purchasing power.

TLT is the cleanest equity-wrapper proxy for long-end US yields. When the Fed signals dovish (rate cuts, balance-sheet expansion), long yields fall and TLT rises. When the Fed signals hawkish (rate hikes, QT), long yields rise and TLT falls. TLT's share price fell from about $170 at the August 2020 peak to about $83 at the October 2023 low during the Fed's hiking cycle; on the dividend-adjusted closes used in this chart the fall was about 48 percent. It has not recovered to the 2020 peak despite the Fed's 2024-25 cuts: the long end has stayed anchored higher, with the 10-year yield at 5.27 percent on 6 October 2026.

Duration is the price-sensitivity of a bond to interest rate changes. TLT holds bonds with roughly 25 years to maturity on average, and its modified duration is roughly 17, so a 1 percentage point rise in long yields knocks roughly 17 percent off the price. Between August 2020 and October 2023 the 10-year yield rose from 0.52 percent to 4.98 percent (FRED daily), and TLT's dividend-adjusted price roughly halved; the longest individual bonds fell further. TLT is mathematically high-risk in a rate-rising regime; the volatility is built into the maturity selection, not exotic structure.

Yahoo Finance, ticker TLT for the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF and BTC-USD for Bitcoin, fetched via the public v8/finance/chart endpoint by an automated refresh that runs twice a day (07:30 and 13:30 Sydney time). TLT launched in July 2002; the stored TLT series starts in January 2003. The ratio starts on 17 September 2014, the first day of Yahoo's BTC-USD history. If Yahoo is temporarily unreachable the last good data is kept.

About the author

Govind Satoshi
Govind Satoshi
Former Institutional Trader. Founder, SatoshiMacro.
Traded allocated institutional capital at a Sydney proprietary trading firm.