Strategy (MSTR) mNAV: Premium to Bitcoin NAV
Strategy's mNAV is its stock market value divided by the US dollar value of the Bitcoin it holds: above 1.0x the shares trade at a premium to the Bitcoin, below 1.0x at a discount. This chart rebuilds the ratio for every US trading day since the treasury strategy began on 11 August 2020, using Strategy's own SEC filings for Bitcoin held and shares outstanding, and daily closes for MSTR and Bitcoin.
Latest reading: Strategy (MSTR) traded at an mNAV of 0.91 on 30 September 2026: market cap US$64.5 billion against US$70.8 billion of Bitcoin (847,666 BTC).
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Daily market-cap mNAV for Strategy (MSTR), log scale. The dashed line is 1.0x, where the stock is worth exactly its Bitcoin; the shaded band below it is the discount zone. Hover for market cap, Bitcoin NAV, holdings and shares on any day. Click Fullscreen for a presentation-grade view.
How mNAV is calculated
The formula is two market values divided by each other, both measured on the same trading day:
- Market cap = MSTR close x (class A shares + class B shares outstanding). Class B is Michael Saylor's super-voting stock; it is economically identical to class A and is counted, as every serious mNAV tracker does.
- Bitcoin NAV = Bitcoin held x BTC-USD close. Holdings come from the most recent 8-K Strategy filed with holdings stated on or before that day.
- mNAV = market cap / Bitcoin NAV.
Two derived figures sit alongside it. Bitcoin per share is holdings divided by shares, the number Strategy is trying to grow. Satoshis per share is the same figure multiplied by 100 million, which reads more easily at the current share count. Every one of these values is plotted or shown in the tooltip for each trading day.
What mNAV above and below 1.0x means
The mNAV level decides whether Strategy's capital-raising machine adds or removes Bitcoin per share for existing holders.
- Above 1.0x (premium). Each new share Strategy sells through its at-the-market program raises more dollars than the Bitcoin each existing share already represents. Those dollars buy Bitcoin, so Bitcoin per share rises for everyone. This is the "BTC yield" Strategy reports. The higher the premium, the faster the loop compounds, which is why the premium tends to feed on itself in bull markets.
- At 1.0x. Issuing shares is neutral: the new money buys exactly the Bitcoin the new shares dilute away.
- Below 1.0x (discount). Selling shares to buy Bitcoin would reduce Bitcoin per share, so equity-funded buying stops making sense. The company has to lean on preferred stock or debt, pause buying, or even sell Bitcoin to meet obligations. A sustained discount is the market saying it no longer trusts the loop, or that it is marking the equity down for the debt and preferred claims sitting ahead of it.
Market-cap mNAV vs Strategy's EV-based mNAV
This page shows market-cap mNAV. Strategy's own investor materials quote an enterprise-value mNAV, which starts from market cap, adds convertible notes and the notional of its preferred stock series, subtracts cash, and then divides by Bitcoin NAV.
| Measure | Numerator | Reads | Best for |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market-cap mNAV (this page) | Share price x shares outstanding | Lower | Valuing the common stock alone per dollar of Bitcoin |
| EV mNAV (Strategy) | Market cap + debt + preferred - cash | Higher | Valuing the whole capital structure per dollar of Bitcoin |
The gap between the two widens as Strategy adds leverage. A common-stock buyer is usually better served by the market-cap version, because that is the price they actually pay; the debt and preferred holders get paid before them. Shares outstanding here start from the latest 10-Q or 10-K cover page and add the at-the-market common stock sales Strategy reports in its weekly 8-Ks, so the share count keeps pace with ATM issuance between quarterly reports.
mNAV through the cycles
- 2020 launch. When the treasury strategy started, Bitcoin was a small slice of a software company worth far more than its Bitcoin, so market-cap mNAV printed well above 3x. That early reading reflects the legacy business and cash, not a Bitcoin premium in today's sense.
- 2021 bull market. The stock became a leveraged Bitcoin vehicle and the premium expanded through the February 2021 run, then compressed as Bitcoin topped.
- 2022 bear market. Market-cap mNAV spent much of the year below 1.0x as convertible debt and a Bitcoin-backed margin loan weighed on the equity. Some of the deepest discounts in the series came in this window.
- 2024 flywheel. Record at-the-market issuance and convertible raises pushed market-cap mNAV to about 3.4x on 20 November 2024, the highest reading since February 2021. That reading counts the more than 20 million shares Strategy sold through its ATM in the weeks after its October 2024 10-Q cover date.
- 2025 onwards. The premium compressed as issuance grew, copycat treasury companies multiplied, and preferred dividends added fixed obligations. Hover the chart for the current regime.
Why Australian investors watch MSTR mNAV
- It prices the wrapper. Australians can hold Bitcoin directly on an AUSTRAC-registered exchange, through the ASX-quoted spot Bitcoin ETFs, or through US-listed MSTR via an international share platform. mNAV is the cost of choosing MSTR over the first two: at 1.5x you pay A$1.50 of stock for A$1.00 of Bitcoin exposure.
- It flags leverage risk. A falling mNAV during a Bitcoin drawdown means the equity is dropping faster than the Bitcoin. For an SMSF or a long-only portfolio that is extra volatility on top of the asset itself.
- Currency layer. MSTR and Bitcoin are both priced in USD here, so mNAV itself is currency-neutral. Your AUD return on MSTR still carries the AUD/USD move, and gains are assessed for CGT in AUD with the 50 percent discount available after 12 months.
- Discount entry points. Some investors treat a deep discount as a cheaper way into Bitcoin. That only holds if the discount closes and the debt and preferred claims do not erode the common equity first.
Methodology
- Bitcoin held. Strategy's 8-K filings on SEC EDGAR, parsed for the stated aggregate holdings and applied as a step function from each as-of date. A handful of 2020 to 2021 totals that the 8-K parser does not pick up are taken from Strategy's press releases.
- Shares outstanding. Class A plus class B shares from the cover page of each 10-Q and 10-K, applied from the cover's as-of date, plus the class A common shares Strategy reports selling under its at-the-market program in its 8-K ATM updates (weekly since November 2024) for periods after that date, less any common shares it reports repurchasing. Each reported week is counted from its end date; a week that straddles the cover date is split by weekdays so sales already inside the cover count are not added twice. Preferred stock ATM sales (STRK, STRF, STRD, STRC, STRE) are left out because they do not change the common share count. Counts dated before the 10-for-1 split of 7 August 2024 are multiplied by 10.
- Prices. Yahoo Finance daily closes for MSTR (split-adjusted) and BTC-USD. Only US trading days appear, because weekends have no MSTR close.
- Formula. mNAV = (MSTR close x shares) / (Bitcoin held x BTC-USD close), same day. This is market-cap mNAV, not enterprise-value mNAV.
- Known gaps. Common shares issued other than through the reported ATM, such as convertible note conversions, employee stock vesting and option exercises, only enter at the next 10-Q or 10-K cover, so mNAV can read slightly low between filings. Before November 2024 Strategy reported ATM sales only as quarter-to-date or cumulative totals, and some quarters not at all, so the pre-2024 share count still steps up at filing dates. Since November 2024 the weekly ATM figures explain 80 to 99 percent of each change in the cover count. Holdings are counted from the 8-K as-of date, usually one day before the filing.
- Refresh and fallback. The series is rebuilt on every data run. If SEC EDGAR or Yahoo is unreachable, the last good file is kept, so the chart always renders.
Related tools
- Strategy (MSTR) BTC accumulation curve - every 8-K holdings disclosure since 2020.
- MSTR / BTC ratio - the share price in Bitcoin terms.
- Corporate Bitcoin treasuries leaderboard - Strategy against every other listed holder.
- BlackRock IBIT AUM trajectory - the spot ETF alternative to holding MSTR.
- Daily US spot Bitcoin ETF flows - the daily institutional bid.
- COIN / BTC ratio - the other listed Bitcoin-beta equity.
Frequently asked questions
Strategy (MSTR) traded at an mNAV of 0.91 on 30 September 2026: market cap US$64.5 billion against US$70.8 billion of Bitcoin (847,666 BTC).
mNAV stands for multiple of net asset value. For a Bitcoin treasury company like Strategy (MSTR) it is the company's value divided by the value of the Bitcoin it holds. An mNAV of 1.5x means investors pay US$1.50 in stock market value for every US$1.00 of Bitcoin on the balance sheet. An mNAV of 0.8x means the market values the whole company at 80 cents per dollar of Bitcoin it owns.
Market cap divided by Bitcoin NAV, same day. Market cap is the MSTR daily close multiplied by estimated class A plus class B shares outstanding: the count on the cover page of Strategy's latest 10-Q or 10-K, plus the class A shares Strategy has reported selling through its at-the-market program in its weekly 8-K filings since that cover date. Bitcoin NAV is the Bitcoin held at the latest 8-K holdings disclosure multiplied by the BTC-USD daily close. Share counts before the 10-for-1 split of 7 August 2024 are multiplied by 10 so they line up with split-adjusted prices.
Above 1.0x the stock trades at a premium to its Bitcoin, which lets Strategy sell new shares and buy more Bitcoin per share than each existing share already holds, so Bitcoin per share rises. Below 1.0x the stock trades at a discount: issuing shares to buy Bitcoin would cut Bitcoin per share, so the equity-funded accumulation loop stops working and the market is pricing in debt, dividend obligations, or a risk that Bitcoin gets sold.
Because the stock carries more than just Bitcoin. Strategy owes convertible notes and pays dividends on several preferred stock series, so common shareholders sit behind those claims. When Bitcoin falls, the leverage makes the equity fall faster, and when the market doubts new capital can be raised above NAV, the premium disappears. Market-cap mNAV also ignores the debt entirely, so a discount on this measure is partly the market marking down the equity for the debt sitting ahead of it.
Strategy publishes an enterprise-value mNAV: market cap plus debt plus preferred stock, less cash, divided by Bitcoin NAV. Because it adds the debt and preferred back, it reads higher than the market-cap mNAV on this page, often by several tenths of a turn. Both are valid. Market-cap mNAV answers what the common equity alone is worth per dollar of Bitcoin; EV mNAV answers what the whole capital structure is worth per dollar of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin holdings come from Strategy's weekly 8-K filings on SEC EDGAR. Shares outstanding start from the cover page of each 10-Q and 10-K and add the at-the-market common stock sales reported in the same weekly 8-Ks. MSTR and BTC-USD daily closes come from Yahoo Finance. The series refreshes automatically on every data run, and if any source is unreachable the last good data is kept.
Mostly because of the share count and the basis. This page takes shares from the latest 10-Q or 10-K cover and adds the common stock Strategy reports selling through its at-the-market program in each weekly 8-K, so ATM issuance is counted within about a week. Shares issued any other way, such as convertible note conversions or employee stock vesting, only appear at the next 10-Q or 10-K, so between filings this mNAV can still read slightly low. Trackers that quote Strategy's enterprise-value mNAV will read higher because they add debt and preferred stock.
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